What does it take to catch a fugitive? How NOLA, Ark. escapees are being tracked

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For fugitives, the odds are stacked against them.

With advances in surveillance technology and the proliferation of cameras and drones, today's jail escapees have much more to overcome than their predecessors even a decade ago. Still, the work of law enforcement is meticulous and patience is a key factor as they chase down inmates on the lam.

Such sweeping manhunts are currently active in New Orleans and rural Arkansas.

Police in Louisiana are searching for two of the 10 men who fled jail custody by climbing through a hole behind a toilet on May 10. In the rugged Ozark Mountains, search teams are hunting Grant Hardin, an ex-police chief and convicted murderer known as the "Devil in the Ozarks," who impersonated a guard and walked out of a medium-security prison on May 25.

These breakouts have put residents who live near the facilities on edge and placed a spotlight on inmate escapes, leading many to wonder how the fugitives have managed to evade arrest and what it will take for law enforcement to catch them.

Scott Duffey, co-director for the Criminal Justice Institute at Wilmington University and a retired FBI agent who spent a decade focused on fugitive apprehensions, said while the amount of time it takes for authorities to apprehend an escapee is different in each case, the end result is often the same – capture.

"I would say higher than 90% of fugitives are caught," Duffey told Paste BN. "It's a very, very rare occurrence for someone to be able to stay out on the loose. It's not impossible, it's just very difficult."

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How do investigators track a fugitive?

Following a breakout, authorities will notify all law enforcement agencies in the area and establish a perimeter, scouring surveillance footage to identify in what direction the fugitives fled and what areas to cordon off, Duffey said.

While on-the-ground-resources take up the search effort, investigators will dig into the background of the fugitives, focusing on their most recent contacts, family members and known criminal associates.

"Normally what they do is head immediately to a known associate and try and hole up somewhere they can hide and have food and other resources brought to them," said Donald Lane, a former U.S. Secret Service agent with decades of experience in fugitive manhunts.

In addition to interviewing a fugitive's friends and relatives, authorities may also place them under surveillance – a tactic that has often led to apprehensions, Lane said.

"This is done in many cases because people lie to protect their family members and close friends," he said.

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How time works against fugitives

As the days go on, authorities will likely set up a tip line and flood the public with information about the fugitive. With the omnipresence of smartphones and doorbell cameras, the public plays a vital role in high-profile searches.

Potential leads also come in the form of local crimes such as burglaries or carjackings, which could provide police with crucial information such as the fugitive's last known location, latest appearance and, in some cases, the license plate of a stolen vehicle.

"When they're resorting to crimes, it gives law enforcement a bread crumb trail and usually brings them much closer" to an arrest, Duffey said.

Both Duffey and Lane emphasized that time is on the side of law enforcement as the escapee burns through resources while trying to stay hidden.

"The longer things go on, the harder it becomes for a fugitive," Lane said. "It becomes extremely difficult to get shelter, food, water and avoid human contact."

Catching 2 fugitives is easier than finding 10

The breakouts in New Orleans and Arkansas have several stark differences that impact the ongoing searches.

In New Orleans, a group of 10 prisoners fled the jail at the same time, which forced law enforcement to divide their resources and attention.

"The large amount of individuals that escaped was totally and completely astonishing, and that worked to their advantage," Lane said. "But now that it's narrowed down to two individuals, all those resources are much more focused."

Currently on the run are Antoine Massey, 32, and Derrick Groves, 27. Massey was in jail on charges of domestic abuse involving strangulation and motor vehicle theft; he is also the subject of active warrants on charges including rape and kidnapping. Groves has been convicted of two counts of murder and a pair of attempted murder charges.

The eight other fugitives were arrested following high speed chases, facial recognition technology flags and tips from the public. Police have also announced the arrests of six people accused of aiding the escapees.

The 'Devil in the Ozarks' poses challenges to authorities

The escape in Arkansas involves a former police chief who is familiar with law enforcement procedure and the mountainous terrain into which he fled, posing several rare challenges for the investigators looking for Hardin.

"If you have a former police chief, he's going to know exactly what law enforcement is looking for, and he's going to know how to avoid as much human contact as possible," Lane said.

Still, the odds are in investigators’ favor, Lane said.

He highlighted the apprehension of Danelo Cavalcante, a murder who escaped a Pennsylvania prison in September 2023 and evaded capture for two weeks. He was taken into custody in a wooded area after a thermal imaging camera picked up his heat signal.

"Ultimately, it comes down to the same thing – (Hardin) is a fugitive and he's still on the run," Lane said. "He still can't show up at his mom's house to take a shower and get some meatloaf, you know. He's still likely to get caught over time, even though initially he may be hard to apprehend."

Experts say people should stay vigilant

Duffey and Lane said those living near the jailbreaks should take precautions such as locking their doors, but should not outright panic.

"People in the immediate vicinity of the jail or prison should be vigilant and lock everything – the car, the garage, the house," Duffey said. "All of these can become places to hide or somewhere to look for something to steal."

He added that people can help law enforcement by reporting anything suspicious and checking their surveillance cameras and Ring doorbells.

Bryce Peterson, an adjunct professor at John Jay College of Criminal Justice, said he's found in his research that 19% of inmate escapes result in some form of violence. That violence most often occurs while inmates are making their initial escape and usually involve relatively minor offenses, like shoving a correctional officer.

If crimes are committed while on-the-run, they are typically theft crimes, said Peterson, a senior research scientist in CNA’s Center for Justice Research and Innovation.

Ultimately, fugitives want to avoid attention, especially any that could put investigators on their trail, Peterson said. He and other experts noted however that as time goes on, there are risks that escaped inmates could become increasingly desperate and potentially turn to violence, especially those already convicted of a major offense like murder.

"I have no doubt they'll all be caught," Lane said. "I just hope it's sooner rather than later."

Contributing: Terry Collins