Critical reservoirs Lakes Mead, Powell hit 'alarmingly low levels' again

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After a brief reprieve in 2023 and early 2024, a long-simmering water crisis in the West is back with a vengeance amid ebbing water reservoirs, drought and wildfire risks.

In fact, according to a report from environmental firm AEM, the western United States faces "a rapidly worsening drought crisis, with affected areas nearly tripling compared to last year."

"The drought in the West is a real concern," said AEM senior meteorologist James Aman in an e-mail to Paste BN. "Over the past few weeks, drought has worsened in Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana and northern Utah."

Overall, the Western drought was at its worst in late 2021, when nearly 94% of the region was in drought, before easing in 2023-24. The drought region is now at 58%.

Of particular concern in the Southwest are the giant reservoirs of the Colorado River basin, Lakes Mead and Powell, which remain far below capacity.

The Colorado River and the two reservoirs have been suffering because of a multidecade drought in the West intensified by climate change, rising demand and overuse. The river also serves Mexico and more than two dozen Native American tribes, produces hydropower, and supplies water to farms that grow most of the nation’s winter vegetables.

The report shows that Mead and Powell, crucial reservoirs that provide drinking water for 40 million Americans, have "reached alarmingly low levels, holding just one-third of their usual capacity. This shortage poses significant challenges to agriculture, urban water supplies, and industries reliant on consistent water availability."

That's up from a low point in 2022, when the reservoirs were 25% full, but still far from their historic highs of the early 2000s, when they were 95% full.

What's the latest on Lakes Mead and Powell?

Huge Lake Mead rests primarily in Nevada, and Lake Powell lies along the Utah-Arizona border.

Aman said that "in historical terms, current water levels at Lake Powell and Lake Mead remain very low. Lake Mead is currently at only 31% of capacity."

Lake Powell is at 34% capacity, according to David Simeral, a scientist with the Desert Research Institute.

Lake Mead and Lake Powell did see water levels increase early this summer as spring snowmelt worked its way down the Colorado River system, Aman said. 

"However, as the summer progresses, lake levels will begin to decrease," he said. "Water levels are projected to continue falling through the end of this year. The lowest level ever recorded at Lake Mead was 1,041 feet in July 2022 (lowest level since the reservoir started filling in the 1930s). Projections show Lake Mead remaining just above 1,050 feet by later this year, so it would not set a new record low this year." 

Long-range projections show even lower water levels by later 2026, possibly near the record low, Aman said.

The two reservoirs are vital for water supply in the West, Aman said: "Seven states use Colorado River for parts of their water supply (Colorado, New Mexico, Wyoming, Utah, Arizona, Nevada and California). Just over 50% is used for farm irrigation, and almost 20% is used for drinking water. Lake Mead and Lake Powell are by far the two largest reservoirs on the Colorado River."

KDSK-TV reported that the Colorado River, which connects the two lakes, provides drinking water for Denver, Salt Lake City, Los Angeles, San Diego and Phoenix, as well as 90% of Las Vegas' drinking water.

Expanding drought in the West

Just one year ago, only 18% of the western U.S. was in a drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. As of this week's monitor, that number is up to 58%.

The expansion "raises serious concerns about water availability, agricultural productivity, wildfire threats, and infrastructure stability across the region," the AEM report said.

The latest medium and long-range outlooks from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center indicate below-normal precipitation in the area for the next several months, Aman said.

Additionally, hotter-than-normal temperatures are expected across the Rockies, Pacific Northwest and the Upper Midwest, exacerbating drought conditions and placing significant stress on regional electric grids, the AEM report said.

Some good news

But there is some good news in one part of the West: "An active North American monsoon is anticipated to continue through all of July and possibly into August," Aman told Paste BN. "This is likely to bring above-normal rain and thunderstorms to parts of the Southwest U.S." He said the weather service outlooks show "above-normal precipitation is likely across Arizona and New Mexico, and perhaps into southeast Utah and western Colorado through all of July."

He added, however, that parts of the Southwest have very deep drought, so just a single summer of above-normal rainfall won't be enough to eliminate drought in these areas.

Wildfire worries are rising

The drought is intensifying wildfire risks in the West, particularly around the July Fourth holiday, which is historically associated with increased wildfire activity, the AEM report said. Areas such as California, the Great Basin and the northern Rockies are expected to face above-normal fire risk throughout the summer months, further straining firefighting resources and endangering communities.

Canada also faces extreme fire danger across its western provinces, with burned acreage already triple the seasonal average.

“This summer will bring a dangerous combination of heat, dryness and fuel buildup that elevates wildfire risks across North America,” Aman said. “We’re already seeing an above-average number of wildfires in the U.S., with similar trends north of the border.”

Why might July Fourth be especially dangerous for wildfires?

"There is a huge spike in the number of human-caused wildfires in the United States around the Fourth of July holiday, related to the improper use of fireworks," Aman told Paste BN.

"When plotted on a map, the highest concentration of wildfires caused by fireworks occurs in the western half of the U.S., mainly in national parks, national forests, and certain other rural areas.  Other smaller clusters of wildfires caused by fireworks are seen around some large U.S. cities, and in national parks and forests in the eastern U.S."