Majorities of Iowans approve of state's performance

DES MOINES -- Iowans see their state headed in the right direction and widely approve of Republican Terry Branstad's job as governor, according to the Des Moines Register's latest Iowa Poll.

The feelings speak to the relative health of Iowa's economy and give Branstad a substantial edge as he considers an unprecedented sixth term in office.

Fifty-five percent of Iowans say the state is headed in the right direction, against 33% who say it's on the wrong track. That's a three-point improvement from the September Iowa Poll and remains in line with polls conducted over the last two years.

Tim Halter, a 44-year-old printer from rural Madison County, Iowa, who participated in the poll, said Iowa's job opportunities and affordability are proof that it's headed in the right direction.

"I moved here from Indiana because I didn't have a job," Halter said, "and I found one here."

Ernie Goss, an economist at Creighton University in Omaha who publishes monthly economic analyses on Midwestern states including Iowa, said he wasn't surprised by Iowans' continued confidence.

Considering the state's low unemployment, healthy job growth, strong agricultural income and stable housing market, Goss said he might have expected an even higher positive figure.

"There are some issues with the Iowa economy, but overall it would appear to most consumers and most workers to be going in the right direction," Goss said.

Fifty-eight percent of poll respondents also approve of Branstad's job as governor. The five-term governor, who returned to office in 2011 after 12 years away, is widely believed to be gearing up for a re-election campaign in 2014. Just 33% disapprove of his performance as the state's top executive.

The poll of 650 Iowa adults ages 18 and over was conducted Dec. 8-11 by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

Branstad's popularity is spot-on with his job approval, as 58% of respondents say they hold a very favorable or mostly favorable opinion of him.

Thirty-four percent of Iowans, by contrast, view Branstad mostly or very unfavorably.

The Democrats looking to challenge Branstad in 2014, meanwhile, continue to suffer from relative anonymity among the statewide electorate. Seventy-three percent of poll respondents are unsure about how they view state Sen. Jack Hatch, while 79% don't know enough to offer an opinion of state Rep. Tyler Olson.

"This is a poll full of good news for Branstad and pretty bad news for Democrats," said Jennifer Duffy, a senior editor at the Cook Political Report, which publishes nonpartisan election forecasts.

Hatch and Olson are seen as the leading candidates to represent Democrats on the gubernatorial ballot next year. Hatch, of Des Moines, is rated favorably by 15% of Iowans, while 12% of respondents like Olson, of Cedar Rapids. The conclusion that can be drawn from such figures, Duffy said, is that voters simply don't know who Hatch or Olson are.

"It's going to take a lot for them to get well known before they're even a threat to Branstad," she said. "For them to make their case, they're going to need some name ID and some money, which right now seems to be lacking."

The Cook Political Report currently has the Iowa governor's race pegged as "likely Republican" in 2014, meaning it's not considered competitive but could become so in the coming months.

Indeed, even among many self-identified Democrats, Hatch and Olson are largely unknown. Sixty-eight percent of self-identified Democrats offered no opinion on Hatch, while 78% aren't sure about Olson.

Poll respondent Laura Dickey, 29, of Des Moines said she doesn't know enough about either candidate's views, although she was certain she won't support Branstad next year.

"No matter who becomes the Democrat nominee, I will vote for them," she said. "I completely disagree with everything Terry Branstad stands for."

Branstad also has a clear edge in head-to-head matchups against Hatch and Olson.

Likely voters polled say they favor Branstad over Hatch 52% to 29%. That 23-percentage-point spread is narrower, however, than the 28-point margin Branstad enjoyed in June's Iowa Poll.

In a race against Olson, likely voters also choose Branstad, 51% to 28%.

"The bottom line is, today, as the race stands, it's a pretty uphill fight for Democrats," Duffy said.