GOP governors endangered across the map

Republican governors swept into office in 2010 are looking for another wave to keep them there.

Voter frustration with an anemic economy is endangering the GOP's majority in the states' top jobs. Seven conservative first-term Republican governors, who won with Tea Party support and then cut taxes, cut spending and battled with Obamacare and labor unions, now find themselves in electoral danger.

Of the 10 governor's races considered tossups by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, six have Republican incumbents, including Govs. Scott Walker of Wisconsin, Rick Scott of Florida and Rick Snyder of Michigan. In Pennsylvania, Cook ratings suggest Republican Gov. Tom Corbett will lose to Democratic businessman Tom Wolf, who leads in multiple recent polls by double digits.

Maine Gov. Paul LePage, who won a three-way race in 2010 with 38% of the vote, now trails Democratic Rep. Mike Michaud in polls. Two solidly red states are also up for grabs: In Georgia, opinion surveys show Gov. Nathan Deal just barely ahead of Democrat Jason Carter, a state senator and grandson of former president Jimmy Carter. In Kansas, where Gov. Sam Brownback and a Republican Legislature sharply cut income taxes, Democratic state legislator Paul Davis now leads the incumbent in polls.

Democratic incumbents appear to have it slightly easier: Two incumbent governors are in tossup races in Connecticut and Illinois, and an open seat in Arkansas, which has been held by term-limited Democratic Gov. Mike Beebe, could go to the Republican contender. Hawaii Gov. Neil Abercrombie lost in the Democratic primary, but Hawaii has elected a Republican governor just twice in its 55 years as a state.

The outcome for the Republican governors could affect the 2016 election, when the GOP will be trying to take back the White House. While the states where Democratic governorships are most at risk aren't likely to be significant in 2016, Wisconsin, Michigan and Florida are generally battlegrounds.

In addition, Walker has indicated he may consider running for president — but that's not likely to happen if he loses this year. Another presidential candidate possibility, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, is head of the Republican Governors Association. In that role, Christie raises money and campaigns for Republican incumbents, so he'd undoubtedly like to have bragging rights with party donors.

Some of Republicans' vulnerability is simple math: Republican governors outnumber Democrats 29-21, and more Republican-held seats than Democratic are on the ballot this year, 22-14. If voters are in an anti-incumbent mood, Republicans have more to lose.

Voters' anger and shock over the 2008 financial crisis and President Obama's health care overhaul, which fueled Republican victories in 2010, has receded into simmering economic anxiety, says Christopher Arterton, director of the George Washington University Battleground Poll. "Voters are terribly discouraged about the slow pace of recovery and the underlying sense that things are not going to get better for a long time, if ever,'' he says.

Voters are so gloomy that even in states where the economy has improved, voters aren't likely to believe it, says William Galston of the liberal-leaning Brookings Institution think thank. "It makes it very, very hard for elected officials, especially incumbents, to deliver good news. People are going to hear it as spin or happy talk.''

That's reflected in a recent ad from Snyder essentially telling voters to hang tight. "We're on the road to recovery,'' Snyder says in the ad. "You might not feel it yet, but you will soon.''

Governors are most likely to get the blame for economic uncertainty, says Karlyn Bowman of the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank. In almost every state, balanced budget requirements and the governor's line-item veto power often mean immediate spending changes. Governors in the GOP class of 2010 cut taxes — and often had to cut state spending and services as well.

"I think voters in states pay close attention. They look at a lot of things in their ordinary lives and look at how governors are performing,'' Bowman says. "Whether their taxes have gone up and whether there are jobs in their neighborhood.''

Democrats argue that voters are ready to dump GOP governors because the tax and spending cuts have helped only the rich and done little for the economy. "Your economic anxiety is because your governor came into office and fought for the big guy and not you,'' says Danny Kanner of the Democratic Governors Association.

If there's a wave of voter anger this year, it's not directed at Republican governors, says Gail Gitcho, communications director for the Republican Governors Association. "I would say the person with the problem here is the president. If people are asked if they're better off under President Obama, the answer is likely no.''

Each of the GOP incumbents faces a state-specific challenge, Gitcho says. For instance, Maine, Pennsylvania and Florida are states won by President Obama in 2012. The governor's races there "were always going to be competitive, because of the nature of the state.'' In Kansas, she says, voters will give the governor credit for keeping his campaign promises to cut taxes. "Kansas will stay red because a) Governor Brownback has done exactly what he said he was going to do and b) that's just the way that the state trends.''