Both parties' bigwigs jump into N.H. Senate race

MANCHESTER, N.H. – The election coming up in three weeks is not a presidential primary, but sometimes it's hard to tell.

Wednesday, former GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney greeted an enthusiastic crowd at a metal-fabricating shop where he filmed a TV spot for his run in 2012. Thursday morning, conservative favorite Sen. Rand Paul hit the phones with voters and told a supporter he'd decide about a 2016 presidential bid in the spring. More than a thousand Democrats turned out Thursday evening to see former president Bill Clinton. And mark your calendar for Hillary Rodham Clinton on Nov. 2.

Past, present and future presidential contenders are as thick on the ground as the autumn leaves in this state that hosts the nation's first presidential primary every four years. It's all an effort to get New Hampshire voters to turn out to the polls in the race between Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., and a former senator from Massachusetts, Republican Scott Brown.

Each opinion poll shows the race tightening, and control of the Senate is in the balance. What was an improbable challenge by an outsider to a popular governor-turned-senator has become a scramble to mobilize base voters in an election that many people simply skip.

"Do not wake up on Nov. 5 having missed the opportunity to help restore America,'' Brown said at his event with Romney.

Shaheen leads Brown in the Real Clear Politics polling average by 3.5 percentage points. The most recent survey, an automated New England College poll, showed Brown with a tiny lead: 48%-47%.

"This is a state that is always a close state. I'm the first Democrat elected to the Senate in 35 years. We thought this was going to be a tough race, we planned on this, and we're working hard,'' Shaheen said this week after speaking at a networking event for young professionals, where she had to talk over the buzz of conversation as she made a pitch about refinancing student loans and increasing the child care tax credit.

Both candidates claim they are independent of their parties, even while they work to mobilize their partisan base. Each says the other can't be trusted to vote in Washington the way they say they will at home.

Shaheen rejects Republican characterizations of her as an Obama loyalist. Though President Obama won this state twice, polls show his approval rating is at an all-time low of 38%. In a TV interview recently, Shaheen pointedly suggested Obama stay in Washington rather than campaign for her. But she is making an appeal on a core Democratic issue: abortion rights and access to contraceptives. A sharp attack ad from her campaign pointed out that Brown sponsored a bill in the Massachusetts Legislature that would impose a waiting period for abortion and require that doctors show women photos of fetal development.

In his rebuttal ad, Brown says he supports abortion rights. He represented Massachusetts as a moderate Republican, including a vote for an assault weapons ban after the Newtown, Conn., school shootings. In New Hampshire, he emphasized border security, the threat from the Islamic State, energy costs and the need for the Keystone pipeline.

Republican state Rep. Al Baldasaro, who turned out to see Brown campaign with Romney, said he initially did not have confidence in Brown, fearing he was soft on gun rights. After meeting with him last month, "he gave me his word ... he will not vote against assault weapons.''

"His voting record will be better than anything I can extrapolate for Shaheen,'' says Lawrence Cheetam, who came to see Rand Paul visit with voters at Brown's headquarters Thursday.

Shaheen faces a particular challenge because young women in New Hampshire, along with young men and minorities, vote in midterms at about half the rate they vote in presidential years. It's a worse drop-off than the 29% dip among other voters and one of the biggest drops in the nation, according to the Voter Participation Project.

Patty Daddio, 57, who was bartending at the young professionals networking event, said she plans to vote for Shaheen. "She's a great people person,'' she said. "I like her morals and what she stands for.''

Ashley Hin, 27, a marketer who said she leans libertarian, said Shaheen's plan to refinance student loan debt appealed to her, since she owes $30,000 for her graphic design degree from a now-defunct New Hampshire college. "I'm not particularly impressed with Scott Brown,'' she said. "I mean, guy, your own state doesn't want to vote for you. Why are you moving up here, thinking we're going to vote for you?''

On the other hand, "I'm not 100% sold on Shaheen,'' she said. "As a marketer, my job is to build a portfolio. Where is (her) portfolio?"

If she can't decide by Nov. 4, Hin says, she'll just stay home.