Despite critics, Iowa Straw Poll likely to survive

DES MOINES, Iowa — It looks inevitable now that the criticism-magnet that is the Iowa Straw Poll will survive, despite attempts by some influential Republicans to make it go away.

The Republican Party of Iowa's governing board will vote on its future at 11 a.m. Saturday, but GOP insiders said the decision will almost certainly be to proceed with planning for an event in August as usual.

The carnival-like political gathering, which the state GOP hosts every four years the summer before Iowa's first-in-the-nation presidential caucuses, is famous for its music, food, tents and campaign antics meant to lure in voters and beat expectations in the nonbinding poll.

National voices have long pooh-poohed it — saying it showcases long-shot candidates who appeal only to the most conservative, evangelical voters; drives more mainstream candidates away from Iowa; distracts from Iowa's premier event (the caucuses); puts a financial squeeze on campaigns by requiring them to pay to participate; is a media-driven event that leads to the press placing too much significance on the results; and unfairly gives double-dipping Iowa two ballot events that draw gobs of national media attention.

Two years ago, the straw poll finally seemed doomed, as establishment forces ganged up against it. "I think the straw poll has outlived its usefulness," Republican Gov. Terry Branstad declared in late November 2012.

But a groundswell of GOP cheerleading for the event, including from Rep. Steve King, R-Iowa, shifted its fate. Republicans familiar with how hard it is to raise money for the party have pointed out that it has grossed over $1 million each time since 1999. It brought in $1.5 million before expenses in 2011, including the proceeds from the Fox News debate two days earlier. The net was close to half of the revenue.

Also, there was fear in some quarters that if there were no straw poll, a religious conservative-oriented event would fill the void.

Another part of its appeal: It's just a fun event, Iowa Republicans said.

"It's important to understand," former Iowa GOP Chairman Matt Strawn said, "the state central committee is not the final authority in whether there's a straw poll. That decision ultimately rests with the candidates themselves. Will they invest the time and resources to compete?"