8 things to watch for at Iowa GOP's Lincoln Dinner
DES MOINES, Iowa — Saturday's Republican party fundraiser will be the biggest presidential "cattle call" in Iowa so far this election cycle, but the after-hours receptions may be where White House contenders secure activists' allegiances.
Eleven White House hopefuls — Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, Lindsey Graham, Bobby Jindal, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Donald Trump and Scott Walker — will get 10 minutes each to make their pitch to Iowa voters at Saturday night's Lincoln Dinner, a fundraiser for the Iowa GOP at the Iowa Events Center.
After the speeches upstairs, there will be receptions downstairs.
Iowans can free-flow between the contenders' hospitality rooms, mingling with the politicos of their choosing.
"Campaigning from the stage is not sufficient here. The true tests will come as people go room to room narrowing their choice," said Jonas Cutler, a West Des Moines Republican and secretary of the Polk County GOP.
The personal interactions will help seal relationships, said longtime GOP campaign operative Grant Young, an Iowa native.
"Every single person in the room on Saturday night will be at their precinct caucus on Feb. 1," Young predicted. "Most of them will be running the meeting or working on behalf of their candidate that night. This isn't another cattle call. This is an NFL combine for activists."
Here's what to watch for:
1. PARTY ROOMS WITH TREATS
Some of the presidential contestants will offer light catering or other enticements.
Root beer floats will be on tap in the hospitality room for Carson, a doctor turned conservative book author. Santorum, a former Pennsylvania U.S. senator, will give away door prizes.
Perry's team will serve ice cream. The former Texas governor has a tradition of ending the day on the campaign trail by stopping by an ice cream shop. "I think it harkens back to a 'treat' he'd have after a long day's work on the farm as a kid," said Robert Haus, Perry's Iowa strategist.
Walker, the Big Cheese in the Wisconsin governor's office, and Fiorina, a former business executive, are planning something special, aides said, but wouldn't say what.
Other 2016ers are keeping it simple, with no hand-outs. The Bush room will be just Jeb.
2. SHORT SPEECHES
When each presidential contestant reaches the 10-minute mark, the dinner's organizers will cut off the microphone.
The identical blocks of time will make it easier for Iowans to compare speeches — how much time the contenders spend defining themselves, time spent running against likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and time spent running against other Republicans.
3. IOWA STRAW POLL INTRIGUE
With the Republican Party of Iowa's straw poll 85 days away, will any candidate commit from the stage to participating in this hot potato event?
Party officials, who have battled to keep the straw poll alive after years of criticism that it's irrelevant to the race and a waste of money for candidates, will leave ticket-sales fliers on dinner guests' seats. Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, one of the few non-2016ers who will take the microphone, will advertise that the $30 tickets are a bargain right now at $5 off.
Two candidates have confirmed they won't attend: Bush and Graham.
4. SURPRISE STAND-OUT?
Who will Iowa Republicans be surprised by?
"Whoever can create a 'pop' at the event with a strong message or a stunning performance — and not (Mike) Huckabee playing the bass — is likely to get a bump going forward," said Michael Cheney, a former dean at Drake University who is now a senior fellow at the Institute of Government and Public Affairs at the University of Illinois.
Expectations are highest for Walker, likely caucusgoers' current favorite, according to polling.
The news media has offered a steady menu of articles and opinion pieces reminding Iowans why they shouldn't forget some of the GOPers who don't rank in the top half in the polls. "Why it's a mistake to dismiss Bobby Jindal," Stuart Rothenberg wrote for Roll Call. "Why Rick Perry connects in Iowa," Washington Post columnist Jennifer Rubin wrote. There was "Taking Donald Trump seriously" by the Washington Examiner's Byron York.
"I also think Fiorina has a great opportunity to grow her support," California-based GOP strategist Rob Stutzman told the Register. "Obviously she's the only woman in the race, but she only has to compete with Carson in the 'government outsider' category as well."
"Sure, Trump is an outsider," Stutzman said of the real estate entrepreneur turned reality TV star, "but assume he's there to give a monologue."
5. REACTION TO BUSH
For Bush, a former Florida governor, this will be the second trip to Iowa this presidential election cycle, and his first since March. Polling shows Bush is struggling in Iowa, coming in seventh among the 14 contenders whom Quinnipiac University tested in a survey released earlier this month.
How much will Bush play up his conservative credentials? How much will he talk about foreign policy in the wake of confusion this week over his answers on the wisdom of invading Iraq in 2003?
Stutzman said: "I'd look for Bush to connect authentically with the crowd like he did at CPAC (February's Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington, D.C.) and surprise attendees who are only getting him through a media lens right now."
6. WHY 4 ARE MISSING
Four contenders are sitting this one out: New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.
Rubio will be in Miami for his daughter's birthday celebrations, his spokesman said. One of Cruz's daughters has a piano recital, his spokeswoman said. Aides for Huckabee and Christie didn't offer explanations.
7. SUBTLE BARBS
Which contenders will dig into GOP rivals who are perceived threats?
Will anyone gang up on Walker, who was 8 percentage points ahead of his nearest competitors in Iowa in the Quinnipiac poll? Will anyone needle Bush, the current national front-runner in the RealClearPolitics.com rolling average of polls? Or will the four no-shows be the targets?
"Remember that (former Virginia Gov.) Jim Gilmore got his 10 minutes of fame in the 2008 cycle by saying, 'We can't win with Rudy McRomney,' " Young said.
8. RELIGIOUS MESSAGES
Who will stick with some of the religious conservative points they've made when speaking at events organized by evangelical Christian groups?
At the last cattle call in Iowa, the Faith & Freedom Coalition spring dinner, one big takeaway was that all the speakers were against same-sex marriage. (Six skipped the Faith & Freedom event: Bush, Carson, Christie, Pataki, Trump, and Graham, a senator from South Carolina.
Iowa activists who consider themselves evangelical Christians will be at the Lincoln Dinner, but the audience will likely be a broader cross-section of Republicans.
The two religious conservative contenders faring the best in polling in Iowa right now, Cruz and Huckabee, aren't making an appearance.