U.S., Russia still far apart on Ukraine after eight hours of talks in Geneva. What's next?
The U.S. and Russia remained at loggerheads on Monday after an intense day of high-stakes talks in Geneva over Russia's military buildup on its border with Ukraine, though both sides vowed to stay at the table.
Russia's deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov said "no progress" was made on Moscow's central demand: that Ukraine is permanently barred from joining NATO.
The top U.S. negotiator, Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, called that proposal a "non-starter" and said Monday's nearly eight-hour meeting wasn't a negotiation.
"We’re not to a point where we’re ready to set down text and begin to go back and forth," she told reporters in a briefing call after Monday's session. "We are trying to have very serious, businesslike, candid, clear-eyed, straightforward conversations."
At issue is the fate of Ukraine, a fledgling democracy the U.S. and its European allies want to protect from Russian President Vladimir Putin's expansionist designs. Russia has amassed more than 100,000 troops along Ukraine's border, igniting fears of a fresh conflict.
Russian officials dismissed concerns that it plans an invasion, but American and European officials are not convinced and have threatened to slap an array of punishing sanctions on Moscow if the Russian troops advance into Ukrainian territory.
"We will see whether, in fact, Russia understands that the best way to pursue diplomacy is for them to reduce those tensions and to de-escalate," Sherman said Monday.
More: What's happening in Ukraine? Russian troops at border raise new invasion fear
Here are the key takeaways from the Geneva meeting:
Why Ukraine's fate matters
The current U.S.-Russian friction is focused on Ukraine, which was part of the Soviet Union before it collapsed in 1991 but which has since cultivated closer military and economic ties with the West.
Many American foreign policy experts say the U.S. has a vital interest in protecting Ukraine from Russian aggression. Last year, the U.S. sent more than $400 million in military aid to Ukraine; since 2014, the U.S. has provided about $2.5 billion in assistance to the country.
Ukraine and Georgia have both sought to join the NATO alliance and were promised membership in 2008, although neither is poised to be admitted anytime soon. Still, the prospect of a bigger, stronger NATO has Putin on edge, as he nurtures ambitions of reviving the Soviet empire and expanding Russia's sphere of influence.
Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 and annexed Crimea from its neighbor, backing separatists on the eastern flank that roiled the country in a still-simmering conflict.
The U.S. and its allies continue to view the annexation as illegal and imposed sanctions in response, but that hasn't deterred Russia.
Tensions between the U.S. and Russia, the world's two largest nuclear arsenals, have only ratcheted up in the years since, particularly after the U.S. intelligence community found Russia meddled in the 2016 presidential election and has been linked to other security breaches.
Putin has threatened military action if his latest demands are not met. In addition to barring Ukraine from joining NATO, the Russian leader has also called for NATO to reduce its military deployments in countries that were formerly part of the Soviet Union.
Although Ryabkov said Monday that “no progress” was made on Putin's demands, he insisted that Russia has "no intention" of invading Ukraine.
More: What is happening at Ukraine's border? Putin's buildup of Russian troops sparks concern
Washington's red line: NATO expansion
Rajan Menon, director of grand strategy at Defense Priorities, a Washington think tank that advocates for U.S. military restraint, said Russia's demands over halting NATO expansion will be "the toughest nut to crack."
Ukraine would strenuously object to such a deal, Menon said, as would American and NATO officials.
"So the question is if something short of that will work: language that defers NATO admission of Ukraine indefinitely but without shutting the door definitively," he said. That could give Putin something to claim as a "win," he added.
Sherman said U.S. officials were firm on pushing back on Russia's proposals, many of which she described as "non-starters" for the U.S.
"We will not allow anyone to slam closed NATO's open-door policy, which has always been central to the NATO alliance," Sherman said. "We will not forgo bilateral cooperation with sovereign states that wish to work with the United States. And we will not make decisions about Ukraine without Ukraine, about Europe without Europe, or about NATO without NATO."
More: Biden warns Putin of harsh consequences if Russia invades Ukraine
Will there be a breakthrough?
Both sides have sought to downplay the chances of an immediate breakthrough. Indeed, Biden's top advisers say no progress can occur until Russia withdraws its troops from Ukraine's border.
"To make actual progress, it's very hard to see that happening when there’s an ongoing escalation when Russia has a gun to the head of Ukraine with 100,000 troops near its borders," Secretary of State Antony Blink said on ABC's "This Week" Sunday.
Sherman told reporters it's not yet clear if Moscow is prepared to de-escalate tensions.
"Russia has a stark choice to make," Sherman said.
Blinken and other Biden officials have threatened to impose tough sanctions on Moscow if Russia invades Ukraine.
"There will be massive consequences for Russia if it renews its aggression, by which I mean economic, financial, and other consequences, as well as NATO almost certainly having to reinforce its positions on its eastern flank near Russia, as well as continuing to provide defensive assistance to Ukraine," Blinken said on Sunday.
More: Video diplomacy: Biden warns Putin against Ukraine invasion in high-stakes call
Areas of possible agreement
Though NATO expansion appears to be a sticking point, U.S. officials say there are some potential areas for compromise.
Sherman and other American officials indicated they're open to reviving a treaty with Russia that regulates the deployment of intermediate nuclear missiles in Europe. The Trump administration abandoned the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 2019, citing Russia's violations of the agreement.
Sherman said the two sides discussed the possibility of renewing the treaty, along with looking at reciprocal limits and greater transparency on military exercises. Sherman said the two sides did not discuss U.S. troop levels in Europe during Monday's session.
The latest talks could pull the U.S.-NATO-Russia relationship out of choppy waters by initiating a sustained dialogue with Moscow to rework European security order in other ways, according to Menon.
Reviving the INF treaty and negotiating other confidence-building measures could reduce the danger of a spiraling conflictl.
"Ultimately, there needs to be a better security order established in Europe," he said. "Ukraine is a symptom of a wider problem."
What's next?
Monday's talks kicked off a string of meetings scheduled to take place in Europe this week on Russia's threatening troop deployments.
Sherman is due to brief NATO and European Union allies on Tuesday before attending a NATO-Russia Council meeting in Brussels on Wednesday. She'll also attend a meeting for the Organization for Security Cooperation in Europe in Vienna on Thursday.
Though this week's talks are not expected to yield any major progress, it may buy more time as the U.S. looks to rally more allies behind potential economic sanctions should Putin decide to escalate tensions. Sherman said while Russian officials have expressed a desire to move swiftly, "we must give diplomacy and dialogue the time and space required to make progress on such complex issues."
Contributing: Karina Zaiets, Jennifer Borresen and George Petras, Paste BN; the Associated Press.