On 50th anniversary of Iowa's first-in-the-nation caucuses, Democrats prepare to discuss their future
On the 50th anniversary of Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucuses, Democrats in Iowa and across the nation are preparing for conversations that could dramatically reshape the state’s role in the presidential primary process.
This week, the Democratic National Committee, which sets the presidential primary calendar, is convening a virtual meeting of its scheduling body. The meeting of the Rules and Bylaws Committee, planned for Jan. 29, is the first of several that will occur over the course of 2022, opening a formal discussion of Iowa’s fate.
Iowa Democrat Scott Brennan was re-appointed to the committee late last year — a move that ensures Iowa will have a seat at the table as conversations progress. He said the bulk of the committee’s membership has turned over, so it’s hard to gauge how the body feels about potentially rearranging the calendar.
More: Who won previous Democratic, Republican Iowa caucuses? See 2020, 2016 and earlier caucus results
“It'll be sort of a chance to chat a little bit and, I think, sort of educate folks on where we are and where we might go,” he said of the upcoming meeting. “It will be our first chance to hear if people come in with any sort of preconceived notions about caucuses or the calendar itself.”
Iowa has been the first state to weigh in on presidential contenders for five decades — ever since it convened a series of living room meetings across the state on January 24, 1972. And for nearly as many years, Iowa has been a target as other states vie to assume its coveted status.
More: Why is Iowa first? A brief history of the state's caucuses
Being first on the calendar ensures presidential candidates of every persuasion travel to the state in droves — even moving to Iowa on occasion — to woo supporters. It affords Iowa and Iowans prestige as, every four years, the political universe shifts its center of gravity to the Hawkeye State.
But in 2020, the future of the caucuses was thrown into heightened uncertainty after the Democratic Party failed to do the only thing that matters: deliver a winner on caucus night.
It marked perhaps Iowa’s biggest calamity to date — coming at a time when complaints were already mounting that Iowa’s demographics do not represent the nation at large and its processes disenfranchise potential caucusgoers.
The brouhaha set off a new wave of calls to strip Iowa of its leadoff position and convert its complicated caucuses into more palatable primaries.
Change seemed inevitable in the day’s aftermath, but the chaos of the coronavirus pandemic and the years that followed pushed concerns about Iowa into the background. Today, a new president is in office, struggling to get his ambitious agenda through a gridlocked Congress as COVID-19 rages on.
Through it all, Iowa Democrats have laid relatively low. Even when Iowa Republicans came out swinging with robust defenses of the status quo, Democrats were noticeably quieter. Some say the turmoil in Washington, D.C. could sap momentum and energy to take on the nominating process.
“It's hard to imagine anybody in the White House saying, you know, what we ought to add right now is a calendar fight,” said Iowa Democratic operative Norm Sterzenbach.
Could Iowa's Democratic caucuses be spared?
There is a possibility the DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee chooses to do nothing. Democratic President Joe Biden indicated again in a news conference last week that he intends to seek a second term in 2024, which would neutralize the prospect of a competitive Democratic primary race and belay concerns about addressing the primary calendar in time for the 2024 election.
But short of allowing Iowa to continue operating as it is, Iowa Democrats are asking two separate questions: Will Iowa get to keep operating caucuses as we understand them today? And will Iowa get to keep going first?
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"I think that there's a willingness to stay first and to do what's necessary to be first," Sterzenbach said. "I think there's a strong sense of doing that at whatever it takes."
Iowa Democratic Party Chairman Ross Wilburn said in an interview he is in regular communication with new DNC Chair Jaime Harrison, who is the former Democratic Party chair in South Carolina — the last of the four early-voting states. He said he also speaks with the party chairs in New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina regularly.
"Let me be clear, I'm going to continue to fight to keep Iowa first," he said. "When I was elected as chair of the party, I promised to work hard behind the scenes to ensure that Iowans remain among the early states on the presidential nominating calendar."
Some Democratic activists, even within Iowa, have pushed for the state party to eliminate its caucuses as a matter of principle. Johnson County Democrats adopted a resolution last year supporting a primary over a caucus, even if it means sacrificing Iowa's place at the front of the line.
From March 2020: Iowa Poll: Iowans show increased willingness to adopt presidential primary after 2020 debacle
Unlike primaries, caucuses require participants to arrive at a specific time and place and remain present through much of the process.
Party stalwarts have long argued that the high bar to participation ensures those who turn out are committed and informed. But more recently, the conversation has shifted to who the caucuses keep out. Families who need to arrange child care, workers who work evening shifts and those who have mobility issues all are among the groups of people the caucuses could be disenfranchising.
A change in New Hampshire leadership adds uncertainty for Democrats' Iowa caucuses
Efforts to move more toward a primary system have proven difficult because of New Hampshire, which holds the nation’s first presidential primary right after Iowa’s caucuses. So long as Iowa's process remained different from a primary, longtime New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner has been happy to let the status quo stand.
But if Iowa's caucuses ever began to look too much like a primary, Gardner sought to move New Hampshire to the front of the line and resume his state's place as the nation's first primary state.
However, Gardner announced in January he plans to retire — a move that could shake up the playing field.
“Secretary Gardner's resignation — I mean, that's a very big deal for people who follow these things closely, because he had a certain view of what New Hampshire law required and it may not be the same view as his successor,” Brennan said. “And so that may be an opening for Iowa to do things a little differently than we've been able to do in the past.”
Iowa Democrats say they don’t expect too many fireworks at the upcoming meeting of the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws committee. But it’s possible that members could hint at their feelings, previewing what's to come. And the conversation sets the stage for continued discussions in March.
“I would imagine that the March meeting is really where the rubber is going to hit the road,” Sterzenbach said.
As the caucuses’ 50th anniversary passes, Brennan emphasized the changes the caucuses have already embraced as the party takes on efforts to make them more transparent and inclusive.
“It is amazing to think that it's 50 years,” he said. “At least in my time, it has certainly always been changing, and I guess more to come.”
From April 2020 : From data on a calculator, to a political phenomenon, to a fiasco: Did the Iowa caucuses get too big?
Brianne Pfannenstiel is the chief politics reporter for the Register. Reach her at bpfann@dmreg.com or 515-284-8244. Follow her on Twitter at @brianneDMR.