Donald Trump doesn't want to back a loser in Ohio Senate race. But he hasn't found a winner

Former President Donald Trump exposed his uncertainty about Ohio's U.S. Senate candidates at a rally last summer when he polled the crowd to see who garnered the most enthusiasm.

But he did not announce his ownpreference — and months later, not much has changed.

Most contenders in the GOP primary have made Trump a central part of their campaigns, and it's no secret that they desperately want his endorsement. But associates of the former president say he has issues with everyone in the field, from questions of loyalty to concerns about their ability to win a general election.

The race to win Trump's imprimatur underscores his continuing popularity within the GOP ahead of the 2022 midterms, even as that popularity has shown recent signs of being less rock-solid than it once was.

Trump, who needs to back winners to keep his reputation as the ultimate Republican power broker, has also held off endorsements in crowded Senate primaries like those in Pennsylvania and Arizona, as well as Ohio. 

Any one of the fall elections in those states could decide whether Republicans or Democrats control the U.S. Senate, currently divided 50-50 with the Democrats in charge because of Vice President Kamala Harris' tie-breaking vote.

"Trump continues to be a popular figure in the Republican Party," said Robert Alexander, a political science professor and founding director of the Institute for Civics and Public Policy at Ohio Northern University. "And until that popularity wanes, his support will continue to be highly sought after in Republican primaries – particularly among insurgent candidates."

Trump associates, who discussed Ohio on condition of anonymity, said they don't expect Trump to endorse until closer to the May primary, but added that he's mercurial and could pop out a statement any time.

Former Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway, who has worked with two Ohio Senate candidates, said it's possible Trump may never weigh in and isn't making promises to anyone. But he's also interested in ensuring the primary victor is supportive of his agenda, she said. 

"In a race like this, it's less him gravitating toward one candidate and perhaps looking more at a process of elimination," Conway said.

More: Republican resistance to Trump suggest his once vise-like grip on the party could be slipping

Trump watches Ohio race from afar

The leading candidates in the GOP primary include former state Treasurer Josh Mandel, former Ohio Republican Party chair Jane Timken, investment banker Mike Gibbons, "Hillbilly Elegy" author J.D. Vance and state Sen. Matt Dolan. 

Businessman Bernie Moreno dropped out of the race earlier this month after a meeting with Trump – underscoring the former president's influence even now. Moreno said in a statement that they agreed the race "has too many Trump candidates and could cost the MAGA movement a conservative seat." 

Moreno declined to be interviewed for this story.

"He has done much for Ohio and loves his State and our great MAGA Movement," Trump said of Moreno. "His decision will help ensure the MAGA Ticket wins BIG, as it is all over the Country."

That's the most praise Trump has offered an Ohio Senate candidate so far. On the other end of the spectrum, he already said he won't endorse Dolan and blasted the renaming of his family's baseball team to the Cleveland Guardians. If necessary, Trump may try to block Dolan's nomination, associates said.

Dolan said he voted for Trump both times and recently cut a campaign commercial pledging to continue construction of the southern border wall. But the state senator also rejects false claims that Trump won the 2020 election, called the Jan. 6 attack at the U.S. Capitol a "failure of leadership" and, unlike his opponents, isn't focusing his campaign on Trump.

"Matt Dolan is running in the Ohio lane of the Ohio Republican Primary," said Chris Maloney, a strategist for Dolan's campaign. "The other candidates have been so obsessed with appeasing interests outside Ohio, they forgot what they are supposed to be fighting for in Ohio. We like that contrast."

Wary of front-runner Mandel

Trump's apparent disdain for Dolan doesn't mean he's sold on the rest of the candidates.

Leading the polls so far is Mandel, who fuels his campaign with election conspiracy theories and inflammatory rhetoric about race, gender identity and more. He claims he was the first person in Ohio to support Trump in 2016, even though he initially supported Marco Rubio.

Opposition research groups are poring over Mandel's life, and Trump and other Republicans are concerned that damaging information about him will eventually surface, said people familiar with the ex-president's thinking. Attacks on Mandel could come either during the primary or the general election, they said.

Mandel and his wife divorced in April 2020, and the Cincinnati Enquirer sued for the records after a judge sealed them at the couple's request. The candidate is now in a relationship with his campaign finance director, who's been accused of creating a toxic work environment that drove out former fundraisers. 

Another concern, Trump allies said: Mandel ran for Senate twice before and fell short. He lost to U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown in 2012 and dropped out of the race abruptly in 2018, citing problems with his then-wife's health. 

Mandel's campaign declined to comment.

'Trying to out-Trump one another'

Mandel isn't the only candidate with baggage, and Trump has a long memory. 

Trump has not forgotten the critical things Vance, the "Hillbilly Elegy" author, said about him during the 2016 presidential run, associates said. Vance previously called him "noxious" and difficult to stomach but has since embraced Trump and said he was wrong.

Trump also hasn't forgiven Timken for defending U.S. Rep. Anthony Gonzalez after his vote to impeach the president over the Jan. 6 riot. Timken initially told Cleveland.com that Gonzalez had a “rational reason why he voted that way," but later changed her mind and called on him to resign. By then, associates said, the damage with Trump was done.

Conway, who moved from Moreno's campaign to Timken's after Moreno dropped out, called Timken's comments about Gonzalez "unfortunate." Still, she said Timken is worth a second look after the work she did to campaign for Trump and organize the Ohio Republican Party. 

"Not everybody’s putting in the same amount of work," Conway said. "That’s pretty obvious. Twitter doesn’t count."

As for Gibbons? Trump advisers said he doesn't know much about the investment banker, but an endorsement isn't out of the question as he moves up in the polls and runs ads describing himself as "Trump Tough." Gibbons also served as finance co-chair for Trump's Ohio campaign in 2016.

Associates said Trump will likely wait until April to make a decision on the race – just weeks before the primary – and could choose not to endorse anyone, whether in Ohio, Pennsylvania or elsewhere.

Trump may also wait and see if any candidates pull away from the pack in polls. A strong front-runner will have a much better chance of securing Trump's endorsement, associates said.

Another factor in Trump's thinking: which Republican is best positioned to defeat the likely Democratic candidate. In Ohio, that would be U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan, who is considered a strong candidate.

Still, recent polls show a softening of Trump's poll numbers, suggesting he no longer wields quite the same power he once did within the power.

In one recent Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll, 44% of Republicans said they do not want Trump to run for president again.

Nonetheless, Trump won Ohio by 8 percentage points in 2016 and 2020, and the GOP Senate nominee is expected to have the upper hand in November.

The former president's endorsement would only increase that advantage.

"That's why they're trying to out-Trump one another," said Alexander, the political scientist from Ohio Northern University. "That's the game in Ohio right now."

David Jackson is a national political correspondent for Paste BN.

Haley BeMiller is a reporter for the Paste BN Network Ohio Bureau, which serves the Columbus Dispatch, Cincinnati Enquirer, Akron Beacon Journal and 18 other affiliated news organizations across Ohio.