US wary of deal to send fighter jets to Ukraine, despite Kyiv government pleas

For the past 13 days, Ukraine’s military, and its civilians, have fought invading Russian forces that have crossed their border by land and air.

Amid Russia’s aerial bombardment of Ukrainian cities, the Biden administration and its allies have been scrambling to provide the Kyiv government with more fighter jets to give it a fighting chance to stop the casualties.

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Will more planes make a difference, and if so, how? And why?

What’s being proposed?

Poland or possibly other eastern European countries such as Slovakia, Bulgaria and Romania would transfer Soviet-era jets to Ukraine to bolster its air defense against a bigger and more sophisticated Russian air force.

The United States has been considering “backfilling” those fighter planes with more modern American-made F-16s, plus additional security enhancements or protections to ease allies’ concerns about Kremlin retaliation.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, however, told Polish leaders Wednesday morning that the United States does not support the transfer of additional fighter aircraft to the Ukrainian Air Force, Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby said during a press briefing.

"We believe the best way to support Ukrainian defense is by providing them the weapons and the systems that they need most to defeat Russian aggression, in particular, anti-armor and air defense," Kirby said.

Others, including influential lawmakers in Congress, are still pushing the Biden administration to find a way to approve such a transfer of planes. 

Is this what Ukraine wants?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly asked the United States and NATO to establish no-fly zones over large parts of Ukraine to stop Russian planes from attacking.

“We repeat every day: ‘Close the sky over Ukraine!’” Zelenskyy implored in a video posted Sunday.

In practice, a no-fly zone like the ones Washington established in Libya, Iraq and Bosnia and Herzegovina, would inevitably lead to American or allied aircraft attacking Russian fighter planes and air defenses in Ukraine, said retired Air Force Lt. Col. David Tretler, former dean of the U.S. military's National War College in Washington. Such an escalation could draw the United States into a larger battle with Russia.

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“And we don't want to do that,” Tretler said. “There is nothing about Ukraine that is important enough to us to risk being in a war with a country that has as many nuclear weapons as we do.”

Secretary of State Antony Blinken reiterated Monday that a no-fly zone “runs the considerable risk of creating a direct conflict between our countries and Russia, and thus a wider war, which is in no one’s interest, including in the interest of the Ukrainian people.”

 If other nations won’t use their planes to patrol Ukraine’s airspace, Zelenskyy said, they should give jets to Ukraine.

"If you do not do that, if you at least do not give us aircraft for us to be able to protect ourselves, there, there can only be one conclusion: You want us to be slowly killed," Zelenskyy said in the video.

Is Ukraine’s need for planes that dire?

By many accounts, yes. Even though a Pentagon spokesman said Monday that Ukraine still has the "vast majority" of its warplanes, U.S. analysts and international observers said Russia has significantly more.

Ukraine closely guards the number of working fighter jets it has, but it is likely a relatively small number  – "somewhere in the tens to dozens," according to Kurt Volker, former U.S. Ambassador to NATO who served as the U.S. special representative for Ukraine until September 2019.

 A sudden influx of fighter jets would make a huge difference, he said, especially because the outnumbered Ukrainian air force has already been holding its own.

“Putin has an enormous amount of military personnel and equipment that he is throwing at this, and they are not doing so well,” Volker said. “The Ukrainians have less, and they are doing very well. So anything additional would help. The more the better.”

Ukrainian pilots had shot down at least 37 Russian fixed-wing aircraft and 37 helicopters before Monday, including some in direct dogfight-style combat, “and the numbers are probably higher today,” Volker said. 

Given Russia’s numerical advantage, Ukraine will not have a fighting chance without more planes, said Claire Finkelstein, a national security law expert at the University of Pennsylvania Carey Law School.

Finkelstein said Ukraine has held an advantage in ground forces, an apparent combination of the determination of the Ukrainian army and the ineptitude of the Russian army. But Russia has the advantage in terms of air superiority and has displayed a willingness to target civilians.

Without more warplanes for Ukraine, “Russia can easily dominate, ultimately, in the air,” Finkelstein said.

How much would additional fighter jets help?

It depends on how many planes, and what kind they are. The discussions underway focus most on Poland contributing some of its fighter planes, including Soviet-era MiG-29s that could be 40 years old, Volker said.

Those planes, Volker told Paste BN, use the same technological platforms as Russian MiG fighters. “Russia may have upgraded versions,” he said, but they are “fundamentally the same.”

One Ukrainian pilot, dubbed “The Ghost of Kyiv,” personally has shot down as many as 20 Russian aircraft, according to the country's air force, which circulated a poster of him. There has been speculation that the “Ukrainian Air Ace,” as the poster describes him, was made up as part of an anti-Russian propaganda effort, but Volker, citing official Ukraine sources, said it appears he is real.

“I've heard it in more than one place,” Volker said. “But how do you know when everybody is putting out their own spin on the war?”

Whether or not “The Ghost of Kyiv” is real, the Ukrainian air force has well-trained fighter pilots who could easily jump into the cockpits of donated planes and immediately head off in search of Russian fighters and mobile air defenses.

Although the Russian planes are much newer, jets donated from Poland or other countries under discussion probably have been modernized, to be compatible with NATO systems. “The Ukrainians may not be as familiar with those,” Volker said, “but that's a technical problem to figure out. I don't think it should be an obstacle.”

How soon does Ukraine need the planes?

Given the civilian carnage wrought by Russian jets, the transfer of planes will help only if they get there immediately, experts told Paste BN.

“It is absolutely urgent. Like, today would be good, because Putin is shelling the cities and population centers, killing thousands of civilians and creating millions of refugees,” Volker said.

Tretler, a decorated fighter jet pilot who flew 250 combat missions in Vietnam, said supplying Ukraine with more fighter jets could help tip the balance.

“If the Ukrainians are able to gain enough control of the air, then they can slow Russian ground forces,” Tretler said.

He warned the converse is true as well: “If the Russians have control of the air, they are able to bring in more ground attack fighters or even heavier bombers, and then they'll be able to have their way with whatever is on the ground.”

“In the end, you have to control the ground,” Tretler said. “And you can't control the ground from the air, plain and simple. There have to be sufficient numbers of ground forces there, and that all depends on the level and the competence of Ukrainian ground opposition, whether it's military or paramilitary or whatever it might be.”

Would there be a threat of greater escalation?

Poland’s – or another country's – contribution of planes to Ukraine would be less risky than a more direct U.S. involvement because Poland lacks a nuclear arsenal.

“It is substantially different from supplying Ukraine directly with that equipment, though Putin may not draw a distinction,” Finkelstein said.

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Poland has a very strong interest in neighboring Ukraine remaining independent as it would be directly threatened as Russian troops push west.

Putin has an equally strong interest in other countries staying out of the fight, and he is unpredictable, said John Tierney, executive director of the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation.

“Everybody is very concerned about where the threshold of sending Mr. Putin over the limit and into the use of tactical nuclear weapons may be,” Tierney said. “His threats, as reprehensible as they are, certainly have to be taken into consideration.”

Is Poland supportive?

After Polish officials said they had no plans to transfer jets to Ukraine, the Polish government announced Tuesday it's ready to send all its MiG-29 fighter planes to a U.S. air base in Germany, which could have allowed the United States to  give the planes to Ukraine and lessen Poland's risk of angering Russia by directly sending its planes.

Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said the prospect of fighter jets controlled by the United States flying from a U.S.-NATO base into airspace that is contested with Russia over Ukraine "raises serious concerns for the entire NATO alliance."

"We will continue to consult with Poland and our other NATO allies about this issue, and the difficult logistical challenges it presents," Kirby said in a statement, "but we do not believe Poland’s proposal is a tenable one.”

Is Congress supportive?

Many members of Congress have pushed for the jet transfer, including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and Sens. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, and Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H.

The two senators, both members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, sent a letter imploring Biden to quickly negotiate a deal to send American fighters to any eastern European country that sends older planes from its fleet to Ukraine.

On Monday, Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Menendez, D-N.J., called on the Biden administration to make such a transfer happen immediately, saying, “It is vital to the security of Europe and the United States that Ukrainians have every possible means of military assistance that we collectively can provide.”

“I understand this is not an easy decision for these countries to make. Asking them to provide their own aircraft, especially as Russia’s military aggression edges closer to their own borders, would be unthinkable except in the direst circumstances,” Menendez said in a letter to Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. “Unfortunately, that is the situation the world faces. Extraordinary times require extraordinary measures and sacrifices.”

Menendez specifically called for the United States to commit to replace any donated jets with upgraded Western aircraft, including through concessionary financing and loans as well as subsidized pricing as necessary.

Where does the Biden administration stand?

Blinken said Biden is in regular contact with Zelenskyy on the subject and is working with Poland on how to backfill Poland’s aircraft if it gives planes to Ukraine.

“I can’t speak to a timeline,” Blinken said Sunday, “but I can just tell you we’re looking at it very actively.”

Monday, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said there are “challenging practical questions” about the swap to be considered – both in getting Poland’s planes into Ukraine and getting new planes to Poland.

One challenge is figuring out how to transfer the planes, including where they would take off from and land, Psaki said when asked if there’s concern that supplying the planes could draw other countries into the conflict.

On the U.S. backfilling issue, the “complicated logistics” include the time it takes to procure new planes, Psaki said.

Asked whether the United States has planes it could quickly send to Poland, Kirby said Monday the administration is “still working our way through all that.”

“It’s too soon to know with great specificity,” he said, “what a potential backfill would look like.”

Contributing: Deirdre Shesgreen and Tom Vanden Brook