Ohio's redistricting is in disarray weeks before the primary. Can it pull off the election?
Like much of the US, Ohio is drawing new congressional and state legislative lines as part of a once-in-a-decade process. But with the primary just weeks away, confusion reigns in the Buckeye State.
- Ohio's primary election is May 3, but congressional and state legislative maps still aren't final.
- The Ohio Supreme Court is deliberating on a challenge to the latest version of a congressional map.
- If maps are ruled unconstitutional, Ohio could face moving its primary or splitting it into two.
COLUMBUS, Ohio — Jeff Sites has been plotting a campaign for Congress against Rep. Jim Jordan for more than two years.
Sites ran unsuccessfully in the 2020 Democratic primary in Ohio’s fourth congressional district, a duck-shaped district where Jordan has had a stranglehold on the vote since mapmakers last drew boundaries for the Buckeye State a decade ago.
But with less than three weeks to go before the first Ohio voters can begin casting ballots in the state’s primary, Sites can't say precisely where he is running.
Ohio is still in the throes of a redistricting battle that has been raging for months. It is one of just a handful of states yet to finish its maps, which have been mired in legal challenges and partisan fighting.
“There is a lot of confusion out there on what’s being done," Sites said.
Questions about whether Ohio's primary could go on as scheduled only grew louder on Wednesday night as the Ohio Supreme Court again rejected state legislative maps. The court had yet to rule on the latest version of Ohio's congressional maps.
Earlier in the day Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose warned a court ruling against the latest maps would make it impossible to hold elections for congress or the Ohio General Assembly on May 3.
The national stakes around Ohio's maps grow each day: Among the states that haven't approved maps yet, only Florida controls more seats in Congress than Ohio's 15 districts.
Already, the GOP-controlled state supreme court has struck down one congressional map approved on a party-line vote by Republican mapmakers in the state legislature, and it is deliberating over a second set of boundaries drawn by a GOP-led commission. Wednesday marked the third time it also has thrown out state legislative maps.
State lawmakers have earmarked more than $9 million more to help local boards of elections make up for the delays, and the state has been negotiating with federal officials over changes to its timeline for sending and accepting ballots to overseas military voters.
"That’s a disservice to those voters. That’s a disservice to those candidates, but that will be the reality," said LaRose, a Republican who voted for the maps as a member of Ohio's Redistricting Commission.
The questions about where district boundaries will fall has left candidates uncertain about where to campaign and voters unsure about who will appear on their ballots.
Election officials wonder if the ballots they are printing will be correct, and if the primary they are preparing for on May 3 will happen.
Meanwhile, the election countdown clock continues to tick. Ballots are scheduled to be sent to overseas and military voters on Saturday, and early voting starts in Ohio on April 5.
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“No county board of elections in Ohio is going to say this is ideal, but as we always do we’re making it work,” said Aaron Ockerman, executive director of the Ohio Association of Election Officials.
Stacked deck
Ohio is drawing its maps this year under a new process Buckeye State voters adopted to stop the "packing and cracking" that produced a congressional map with 16 uncompetitive districts in 2011.
That map went according to plan over the decade, with Republicans controlling 12 districts drawn to favor them in five straight elections while Democrats held their four seats for the whole decade.
After months of deliberation, though, the new process hasn't produced a map that lives up to what voters required when they amended the state's constitution in 2018.
More: New congressional maps constitute 'brazen attack' on voters of color: Report
In January, the Ohio Supreme Court struck down Republicans' first attempt at drawing a congressional map that would have given their party as much as a 12-3 advantage in Congress. The state lost one seat because of population changes in the decennial census.
"When the dealer stacks the deck in advance, the house usually wins," Ohio Supreme Court Justice Michael Donnelly said in writing the court's opinion on that map.
The latest map – a 10-5 Republican advantage in a state former President Donald Trump won with 54% of the vote – also is being challenged at the state supreme court.
While Republicans have dominated Ohio's statewide elections in recent years, Democrats and others who opposed the GOP-drawn maps have said the proposed district lines go too far.
The court's latest ruling will be significant in determining whether the state will hold May 3 primary as scheduled.
LaRose had directed local boards of elections to proceed as if the maps will be in place for the election. But the state supreme court invalidating at least one map less than three weeks before the start of early voting in Ohio complicates local boards' ability to produce accurate ballots.
More: Supreme Court rejects GOP redistricting plans in NC, Pennsylvania
“We let the politicians deal with where the lines are, we’ll just deal with how to implement them once they’re done," Ockerman said.
LaRose said state lawmakers would have to consider moving the primary to a later date or holding two primaries – one for statewide elections for Ohio governor, U.S. senator and a handful of other offices – and another for congressional and legislative seats.
Democrats and voting rights advocates have been pressing for Ohio to move back its primary date. On Tuesday, Richard Gunther, an emeritus professor at Ohio State University who helped write the state's redistricting rules, called the primary date "an artificial barrier."
Other states have changed their primary dates this cycle. A Maryland appeals court this week moved back the state's primary date as legal challenges of its maps progress through the courts. California delayed its primary from March until June.
More: Why 'independent' redistricting commissions don't really end gerrymandering
LaRose said moving the entire primary could cause a cascade of other problems. Local school boards with levies on the ballot might have to delay signing contracts. Construction projects might be delayed as local governments wait for voter decisions on funding packages.
The state also had to recruit about 55,000 poll workers for the primary, he said, and local boards of elections would have to secure new commitments from them.
“Those maps that have been approved by the redistricting commission are valid unless they’re struck down. What we’ve told the boards of elections is that you have to be ready," LaRose said.
At-large seats in the House?
Federal law could force the state to default to at-large districts where members of Congress are elected statewide instead of by districts if mapmakers and the court can't reach an agreement on congressional lines, Capital University law professor Mark Brown said during a press conference at the Ohio Statehouse on Tuesday.
That legal doctrine is unsettled, according to the Congressional Research Service.
"It shouldn't get there," he said. "There's no reason to stick your tongue out at the Ohio Supreme Court."
Whether the court can draw the lines on its own, Brown said, is "trickier." And Ohio's constitution might be in conflict with federal law over whether the state supreme court can draw state legislative districts, he said.
The U.S. Supreme Court allowed maps drawn by state courts in North Carolina and Pennsylvania to stand for this election. But the court's conservative wing signaled it wants to revisit whether state courts could interfere with a state legislature's decisions on federal elections.
More: The Supreme Court shadow docket: Alabama redistricting case renews fight among justices
'Time crunch'
The delayed maps have left candidates and voters in a "time crunch," said Desiree Tims, a former state lawmaker who now leads Innovation Ohio, a think-tank and advocacy organization.
"We want constitutional maps that reflect how Ohioans actually vote," she said during a press conference.
State Rep. Monique Smith, a Democrat running for reelection to the Ohio House of Representatives, said she intends to move her family into the district she will run in for 2022, but the delays have complicated those plans.
"I'm going to go where my constituents are. I'm going to go where they go. I'm not giving up on that," she said. "And if that means that I have to sell my house, move my children to new schools. We're going to do that as a family because we don't have much choice in Ohio.
Franklin County Recorder Danny O'Connor, a Democrat who filed to run in a central Ohio congressional district against freshman Republican Rep. Mike Carey, said he is campaigning broadly in the region absent a final map.
"The specifics of what this process looks like is confusing. There’s been an intent to confuse Ohioans by this redistricting commission," he said.
The lines don't matter much to Max Miller, who announced his bid for Congress last year with the backing of former President Donald Trump. At the time, he was looking to unseat Rep. Anthony Gonzalez, who represents a northeast Ohio district and was one of only 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump last year.
Gonzalez isn't running for reelection, and Miller is now running in a different district challenging GOP Rep. Bob Gibbs. A spokesman said Miller has been campaigning "across the region as a champion of the America First agenda."
"So, regardless of where the lines end up or the date of the election, Max Miller (is) ready to fight for his agenda in Congress," campaign spokesman Logan Church said in an email.
While Democratic candidates who were carved out of districts "with surgical precision" are left confused, it's voters who should have the bigger gripe with Republican mapmakers, said Liz Walters, chair of the Ohio Democratic Party.
The delays have cost taxpayers more money, and made it harder for voters to know what might appear on their ballots, she said.
The Ohio Republican Party declined to comment.
“What’s really sad about all of this for Ohio voters: not that many people vote in primaries anyway," said Mia Lewis, associate director of the good-government group Common Cause Ohio. "What’s going to be the incentive for an Ohio voter to bother to pay attention and figure all of this out?”
Contributing: Paste BN Network Ohio Bureau reporters Jessie Balmert and Laura Bischoff, Associated Press