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As Republicans grow in Florida, Palm Beach County, once deep blue, gets more purple

Stephany Matat   | Palm Beach Post

While GOP voter registration gains across Florida have made the state redder, a different trend is making Palm Beach County, long a blue Democratic bastion, more purple.

Since 2020, the number of voters who do not choose a political party when they register — known as No Party Affiliation (NPA) — has grown in the county by 32,000. In the same timeframe, the county's Democratic ranks plummeted by 27,000 while the number of Republican registrations shrank by just 130.

As of Sept. 21, Democrats still lead Palm Beach County in voter registrations with 398,703. Republicans trail with 288,547. Most significantly, NPA voters rank second with 289,036. That's in a county with 1,002,037 registered voters as of Oct. 19.

Political consultant Richard Giorgio said the growth in independent voters, especially in Florida's larger urban counties, is not novel. Giorgio, who has advised a multitude of Palm Beach County candidates over the years, said the major parties reach a "saturation point" in which they have simply irked voters.

"I think people are clearly frustrated with both parties," Giorgio said. 

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Nonetheless, the numerical trend in the county appears decidedly unfavorable for Democrats. 

It reversed a trend, from 2018 to 2020, that saw Democratic voter registrations in the county grow by about 33,000. Dating back to 2014, new Democratic registrations normally averaged an increase of about 15,000 voters per election cycle.

Still, Terrie Rizzo, the chair of the Palm Beach County Democratic Party, said she's confident that most NPAs lean Democrat.

"Voter registration numbers are obviously important," Rizzo said. "But the key is getting out the vote."

And a Democratic strategist said both parties have lost voters.

Eric Johnson, who worked on Nikki Fried's successful run for agriculture commissioner in 2018, said voters are becoming "disillusioned" with political parties, and part of it is because of the "toxicity of presidential elections."

"National politics has turned voters off," Johnson said. "They want to vote, but they don't feel an affinity for either party."

Across Florida, though, the picture has been very different. The Florida Republican Party has seen an unprecedented surge in enthusiasm, adding  640,707 voters since 2016 to now top 5.1 million in a state with about 22 million residents. 

GOP voters now outnumber Democrats in the state by 269,000. Democrats count 4.9 million voters while another 4.1 million voters are registered without a party affiliation or under a minor party.

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Republicans say they are not concerned about the increase in NPA voters because they still believe a red wave is coming in next month's election, said Joe Budd, Palm Beach County Republican State Committeeman and congressional candidate in a district that stretches from Boca Raton to Broward County.

"I think people are afraid to identify they're partisan and their politics," Budd said. "I think people just don't want to be harassed for identifying as a Republican or identifying as a Democrat."

NPAs cite various reasons for eschewing alignment with Rs and Ds

Some who have chosen not to register with a political party sought various reasons for their decision.

Carla Hass of Lake Park said she believes that it's better to vote for a person instead of a party. Hass said she's tired of candidates who spend too much time talking about the other party instead of talking about what they'd do if elected.

"There's some really good people and some really bad people," Hass said. "I encourage everybody to think independently and look at what they're campaigning for."

Jeff Levy, a real estate attorney in Boca Raton who is also an NPA, said he doesn't want to be affiliated with a group of people speaking for him and he doesn't want to anger potential clients who might look up his voter registration and see he doesn't share the same political allegiance.

"When I found out that other people can search me and find party affiliation ... I'd rather be a blank canvas," he said.

Geri Wolff of North Palm Beach said she is a "middle-of-the-roader."

In the past, she had been registered as a Republican for a time, and as a Democrat at other times. Wolff said she has now settled as an NPA because both parties have moved so far to each side of the ideological spectrum that it doesn't align with her values. 

"I don't think either party is listening to what the voters want," Wolff said.

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Are voter registration numbers a big deal?

In Palm Beach County, it's too early to tell whether the drop in registered Democrats is meaningful, said Kevin Wagner, a political science professor at Florida Atlantic University.

It's better for parties to have more registered voters, Wagner said, but that doesn't indicate whether a party is destined to win. Political parties are more focused on voter turnout than voter registration numbers.

"The most important thing to any political party is making sure that you have more voters that are voting than necessarily ones that are just on the voting roll," Wagner said.

That said, Wagner noted that registrations signal much more than determining how many voters are registered in a party. For those who study politics and strategize campaigns, he said it can show trends in party realignment and possibly show dissatisfaction in one party. 

Although Democrats would trust the NPA voters to align with their ticket, that's not a safe assumption to make in this election, said Tom Valeo, president of the Palm Beach County Young Democrats. He thinks voters, especially young voters, are tired of the "bickering and arguing" between politicians.

"I think there's a danger in assuming, and I think what Democrats need to continue to do is meet voters where they're at," Valeo said. "When you get super-partisan, you find yourself speaking into an echo chamber regularly."

Stephany Matat is a journalist at the Palm Beach Post, part of the Paste BN Florida Network. You can reach her at smatat@pbpost.com. 

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