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Special OnPolitics edition: New exclusive poll shows GOP rising


A new Paste BN/Suffolk University Poll this morning: Undecided voters are flocking toward GOP candidates in the final stretch of the campaign, surpassing support of Democrats.

On a generic ballot, one naming parties but not individual candidates, those surveyed now support the Republican congressional candidate over the Democratic one by 49%-45%, a turnaround since the Paste BN poll taken in July, when Democrats led 44%-40%.

These findings stoke GOP hopes of gaining control of the House of Representatives in the Nov. 8 elections, and with that, new powers to confront the Democratic White House, Susan Page and Sarah Elbeshbishi report.

Among the poll results:

  • The abortion issue resonates more strongly with women than men, and it is contributing to an enormous gender gap among independent voters.
  • Independent women favor the Democratic candidate by 11 points, 51%-40%. Independent men support the Republican candidate by 22 points, 57%-35%.
  • Biden's job rating has improved since July, though it remains anemic. Now 44% approve of the job he's doing as president; 53% disapprove. In July, it was 39%-56%.

The poll shows deep pessimism about the economy as Americans feel the bite of inflation in their daily lives:

  • 61% percent are eating out less often
  • 50% have postponed or canceled vacations
  • 47% have cut back on groceries
  • 45% are driving less.

Voters say they see the election as a way to send President Biden a message. By a double-digit margin, they want him to change course.

📈 Read the full poll results and more context here.

💭 More from the poll: Voters expect gridlock if Republicans win control of the House. But three-fourths also predict an inquiry into Hunter Biden, the president’s son.