How Whitmer plans to keep young people in Michigan: More than free laundry

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer knows it will take more than the perks of living near family to convince those who grew up in Michigan that they're better off staying.

"Let's give them reasons to stay beyond the promise of a home-cooked meal or free laundry facilities," she said in her State of the State speech Wednesday.

At the same time, she wants to persuade more young people to move to the state. "Ambitious young people have a lot of options when they graduate. As they decide where they want to live, we must make sure that Michigan is the answer," she said.

She laid out her vision to see more people call Michigan home: Build Michigan's reputation as an inclusive place, poach talent from states that fail to protect LGBTQ residents and abortion access and reduce the cost of raising a family.

In addition to Michigan's strong universities and natural beauty, economic and demographic experts said Whitmer's proposed policies could add to the list of Michigan's selling points. But reversing Michigan's bleak demographic trends requires a broader strategy, they say.

Michigan has a population growth problem. It's a graying, shrinking state.

The state's population stood at 10,077,331 as of the last census count in 2020. In 2021, the population shrunk to 10,050,811, according to the census population estimate. That same year, Michigan saw more deaths than births, according to data for the Michigan Department of Health & Human Services.

Michigan has the nation's second highest share of residents who were born in the state, second to Louisiana, according to census data.

"Which means we don't get many people from outside," said Kurt Metzger, a demographer who founded Data Driven Detroit and studies Michigan population trends. "We may be losing some of our boomers to Florida and Arizona, but we've got plenty," Metzger said. Instead, Michigan lags behind other states with its low share of young working-age people between 25 and 44.

Whitmer's predecessors GOP Gov. Rick Snyder and Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm also looked for ways to stem Michigan's "brain drain."

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Michigan needs a population growth strategy to support a strong economy, said Jim Holcomb, president and CEO of the Michigan Chamber of Commerce. Holcomb said the chamber supports Whitmer's call to expand the Elliott-Larsen Civil Rights Act to bar discrimination based on sexual orientation and gender identity.

"We're certainly on board to attracting everyone to Michigan," he said.

But the chamber has stayed away from backing Whitmer's effort to tie abortion access in the state to Michigan's economic growth strategy and said social issues play only one role in retaining residents and luring newcomers to the state. "I would caution anyone to think that that it's going to be the end all be all to attract people regardless of what the issue is," he said.   

Within Whitmer's cabinet, the idea of welcoming everybody has broad support. After the speech, the head of the Michigan Economic Development Corporation, Quentin Messer Jr., called Michigan's "welcoming environment" a "competitive strength" while Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist II saw in Whitmer's message a way to address Michigan's population slump. "Places grow that are welcoming," he said.

There's wide recognition that Michigan faces stiff competition in the race to attract young people.

"It's going to be really hard to get more young people to move to Michigan (or not move out) because every other state is also going to be trying to attract them," said Don Grimes, a regional economic specialist at the University of Michigan, in an email. "A lack of young people is not just a problem for Michigan."

Experts see potential for Whitmer's pre-K proposal to keep and pull young people to Michigan. Few states offer universal pre-K programs, and lowering child care costs could help keep and lure families to the state. Michigan has one of the lowest shares of women of childbearing age in the country, according to Metzger.

While preschool expansion might only directly benefit those with young children, it stands to benefit the workforce generally, said Tim Bartik, a senior economist at the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.

"In the long run, you're better off if your neighbors send their kid to preschool," he said. Similarly, attracting more educated workers to the state can benefit current residents.

"Economic productivity is a team sport," he said. A skilled workforce boosts the productivity of companies, affecting their ability to expand in a state and produce new technology, Bartik said. "So I should care about my co-workers’ skills, it's to my advantage."

In addition to the framework Whitmer outlined in her speech, lawmakers need to focus on a strategy that meets the needs of different regions, from urban centers to rural areas, and improve educational outcomes in the state’s K-12 system, experts said.

Many Republicans have gotten on board with one piece of Whitmer's strategy for growing Michigan's economy: giving taxpayer-funded incentives to companies that promise to create jobs in the state. But some GOP lawmakers balked at Whitmer's call to expand LGBTQ protections and reproductive rights as an economic pitch and vow to win business and talent away from such states.

"I'm looking at you Ohio and Indiana," she said, prompting applause from Democratic lawmakers. "All right I figured Ohio shade would get everyone up," she said, noting the lack of enthusiasm shown by Republicans.

GOP state Rep. Andrew Beeler, R-Port Huron blasted Whitmer's remarks. "I think it's remarkable that that's our plan for economic development is enticing businesses and workers here with the prospect of being able to kill their unborn children," he said during an appearance on WKAR's Off the Record. Minority Leader Matt Hall, R-Richland Township, accused Whitmer of pursuing "divisive policies" and said lawmakers should instead find common ground on "growing our economy, on bringing supply chains back from overseas, on increasing talent in our state, and on tackling workforce housing."

And in terms of finding common ground, Michigan has one thing going for it: people who live here like it, and want more people to stay.

The day before Whitmer delivered her State of the State address, she held a roundtable discussion to hear from residents on the issues they'd like to see her tackle.

"What happens to our recent graduates? I have three adult children, two of whom have located out of state for reasons of employment," Dane Morris, a retired teacher, told Whitmer.

"What can we do to keep those graduates, you know, the brain drain here in Michigan from continuing? So let's do something that can keep those people here."

There's no silver bullet approach to attracting and retaining young people, experts say. Instead, it might look more like a laundry list.

Clara Hendrickson fact-checks Michigan issues and politics as a corps member with Report for America, an initiative of The GroundTruth Project. Make a tax-deductible contribution to support her work at bit.ly/freepRFA. Contact her at chendrickson@freepress.com or 313-296-5743. Follow her on Twitter @clarajanehen.