Uniquely powerful, Iowa governor could be a caucus kingmaker. Why she won't play favorites.

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When Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds takes the stage with possible presidential candidate and U.S. Sen. Tim Scott next week in West Des Moines, it’s Reynolds who will get the most applause of the night, event organizer Gloria Mazza knows.

At an Ankeny, Iowa, town hall with Arizona Republican Kari Lake, attendee Bill Coburn suggested Lake should team up with Reynolds to run for president and vice president.

And when Republican Party of Iowa Chair Jeff Kaufmann travels to meetings of the Republican National Committee, it’s Reynolds everyone is eager to talk to him about.

“We love our governor,” says Mazza, chair of the Polk County Republican Party.

Iowa’s governor is always in demand ahead of the state’s first-in-the-nation caucuses, as candidates try to ingratiate themselves with the leader of the state party that will shape their political trajectory.

But Reynolds emerged from the COVID pandemic and the 2022 midterm election more polarizing yet more powerful, and Republicans say her new levels of political clout and popularity make her uniquely influential among the state's GOP base as the national spotlight turns, once again, to Iowa ahead of its 2024 presidential caucuses.

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“I would say with a great deal of confidence that Kim Reynolds is the only person in the state of Iowa that could be a king or a queenmaker,” Kaufmann said. “There's a lot of people who like to cast themselves as kingmaker because it helps them to push their organizations, but she's the only one that could be.”

Kim Reynolds has cemented her status in the Republican Party but plans to stick with Iowa

Reynolds has been popular among Republicans for years, but she has newly cemented her command of the party on the state and national stage, insiders say.

She was just reelected to a second full term by a whopping 18.6 percentage points, and she tallies soaring favorability ratings among Republicans, topping U.S. Sens. Chuck Grassley and Joni Ernst in an October 2022 Des Moines Register Iowa Poll.  

Her national profile is on the rise, buoyed by regular speaking spots on Fox News, a well-received rebuttal to President Joe Biden’s first State of the Union address last year, and a new appointment as chair of the Republican Governors Association.

Reynolds put an exclamation point on that resume in January, flexing her political might to usher an expansive "school choice" agenda through the Legislature. Determined to sign a bill this year, Reynolds waded into Republican primaries last June to publicly oppose members of her own party who didn't support the plan, paving the way for its passage.

The move sent an unambiguous message: This is Kim Reynolds’ Republican Party.

Yet Reynolds has declined to use her clout to help shape the outcome of the Republican Iowa caucuses, insisting instead on remaining neutral — a clear bet on Iowa and the future of the caucuses rather than on any one candidate.

“I want to welcome everyone to this state,” Reynolds said in an interview with the Des Moines Register. “And if I weigh in, I don't know if they'll feel all that welcome. But, you know, I've made it clear, I will be happy to help introduce you, help travel the state, connect in any way that I can — especially to make sure that if we've got big things going on that they know about it.”

It’s a strategy that ensures she has the ear of the next Republican presidential nominee, regardless of who emerges victorious. And it could position her for national appointments down the line, whether it’s in a Republican cabinet or as a vice presidential running mate.  

“The fact she isn't going to (weigh in) makes her even more appealing” to candidates, Kaufmann said.

Reynolds said she’s not entertaining the idea of becoming someone’s running mate.

“No,” she said. “I'll tell you, I love what we're doing here in Iowa, and hopefully I continue to make it pretty clear we're not done.”

Despite neutrality pledge, Kim Reynolds can wield influence

Iowa Republican elected officials have occasionally weighed in on behalf of candidates, like when Grassley endorsed his good friend and fellow U.S. Sen. Bob Dole in 1988 and 1996, or when former Gov. Terry Branstad encouraged Iowans to caucus for anyone but U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz in 2016.

But, by and large, they take a more hands-off approach in an effort to live up to Iowa’s central promise that anyone can get a fair shot without party elites tipping the scales.

Iowa Republicans have emphasized that commitment again this year as former President Donald Trump seeks another term following his loss to Democrat Joe Biden in 2020. The state party’s governing body has taken a vote to pledge neutrality — a move that many elected leaders, including Reynolds, support.

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Reynolds said she has spoken to Trump since the election, and he and others understand that she won’t be weighing in on behalf of any one candidate.

“I talked to President Trump, I suppose it's been about a month ago now, and we had a good conversation,” she said, telling him that, “if you're coming to Iowa, we'd be happy to meet with you and, you know, travel the state.”

Still, Reynolds can wield her influence without endorsing or publicly favoring any one candidate.

Reporters from around the country will routinely be asking her which candidates are in the state and what ideas she likes and doesn’t like.

“If she's sat down and gotten to know you and talked to you, let's face it, you're going to be in her head,” Kaufmann said. “And if she likes the idea, you might get the mention as the example of the fine candidates that we have to offer.”

Reynolds, who is fresh off a statewide campaign, also can offer advice about how to best connect with Iowa Republicans.

She said more than any one kind of Republican — conservative, MAGA or moderate — Iowans are looking for a winner.

“I just think that they think it's important that we take back the White House, so I think they're looking for somebody that can win,” Reynolds said. “So they want to feel confident in the message. They want to believe that they're going to do what they say they're going to do.

"They want somebody that has the integrity and the willingness to stand strong — to stand up for their freedom, for America, for this country.”

'I came out a different governor': How Kim Reynolds found her own confidence

Reynolds’ perch atop the party was hardly inevitable when Branstad tapped her to be his 2010 running mate.

Then a first-term state senator who had previously served as the Clarke County treasurer, Reynolds was viewed with deep skepticism by much of the party’s right flank.

Christian conservative leader Bob Vander Plaats, who had unsuccessfully challenged Branstad for the gubernatorial nomination, organized at the party’s state convention to try to replace Reynolds on the ballot.

Again in 2014, whispers circulated that conservative activists would challenge Reynolds as Branstad’s running mate.

And when she finally rose to the top spot after Branstad, the longest-serving governor in U.S. history, accepted an ambassadorship in 2017, her ascent was marked by questions about whether she could ever step out of his shadow and define a legacy for herself.

Today, those questions are gone.

“Looking back on it now, I think it may be one of the best, if not the best decision Gov. Branstad made in his tenure both times as governor,” Vander Plaats said. “Kim Reynolds will go down as one of the best, if not the best governor, in our state's history.”

For Reynolds, a major turning point in her political evolution came with the COVID-19 pandemic, when she was tasked with guiding the state through an unprecedented crisis. Reynolds largely resisted statewide shutdown orders and mask mandates and quickly moved to reopen schools.

Mazza, the Polk County GOP Chair, said she planned her schedule around the daily news conferences Reynolds hosted.

“I know they were doing it at the national level, too,” Mazza said. “But it was more important to hear Gov. Reynolds talk to me here in Iowa, because every state was doing things different. It was a comfort.”

Mazza said those pandemic days have endeared Reynolds to many Republicans.

“It was just total leadership all the way through,” she said. “We were in a place that nobody had ever been before with things shut down. And she was just reassuring each day coming forward with the right kinds of decisions, keeping the schools open, not shutting us down totally. And it paid off. We came out the other side winners, the state did.”

Today, Reynolds says she is more confident and more willing to stand firm under intense scrutiny and pressure than before the pandemic.

“I came out a different governor,” she told the Register. “I really believe that.”

Branstad, who called Reynolds his political “soulmate,” said there are plenty of pitfalls for a governor trying to navigate tricky Iowa caucus terrain, but he’s not worried for her, particularly after watching her manage the pandemic.

“I'm really proud of her," he said. "She's improved on everything I taught her. ... I think she can do just about anything she wants to do."

Reynolds' approval is rooted in Republican base, conservative agenda

That change in confidence has been on full display as Reynolds leans into politically fractious debates over issues such as school choice, transgender athletes, discussion of gender identity in schools, implementation of tort reform in medical malpractice cases and more — alienating and frustrating Democrats.

“She hasn't played it cautious,” Vander Plaats said, and that’s given her “street cred” with every faction of the Iowa Republican Party.

It’s made her a different, more polarizing kind of leader than Iowa has seen in the recent past. Icons like Branstad, Chuck Grassley and Tom Harkin earned high approval ratings among all Iowans — numbers driven by strong support within their own party along with moderately high approval ratings among members of the opposing party.

In 2009, for example, Grassley had a 75% overall approval rating in the Des Moines Register's Iowa Poll, including 79% support from Republicans and 75% support from Democrats.

That same year, Harkin had a 70% approval rating, including 86% among Democrats and 52% among Republicans.

Reynolds' strength comes from near universal support among her base of Republicans — 91% in a Register poll last October — but just 14% among Democrats.

As politics has become more polarized, Reynolds has leaned in, delivering on the conservative agenda she championed on the campaign trail and exciting her Republican base.

That’s the kind of thing she thinks Republican presidential candidates need to convey when they arrive in Iowa.

“I think Iowans and I think Americans feel that there's a sense of urgency,” she said. “This is a resilient country, and we're resilient. But they're nervous about what's happening and where does this stop and what is the impact and how do we turn it around? So you’ve got to have somebody that's not afraid to do the right thing, even under really tough, tough circumstances.”

Brianne Pfannenstiel is the chief politics reporter for the Register. Reach her at bpfann@dmreg.com or 515-284-8244. Follow her on Twitter at @brianneDMR.