Politics of expulsion: Did Republicans hand Democrats major win with Tennessee Three vote?

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Shouting “Welcome home! Welcome home!,” crowds on the steps of the Tennessee Capitol pressed around expelled Rep. Justin Jones, trying to catch a glimpse of history as Jones raised his right hand to retake the oath of office Monday — less than half an hour after Nashville’s Metro Council unanimously reappointed him to the Tennessee House of Representatives.

Moments later, Jones, D-Nashville, triumphantly reentered the House chamber, just one legislative day after being expelled for hijacking House proceedings by using a bullhorn to call for gun reform. Jones did not miss a single bill vote.

Rep. Justin Pearson, D-Memphis, also expelled on April 6, took the oath office again on Thursday, in time for the House session that morning, after unanimous reappointment by the Shelby County Commission.

The decision by House Speaker Cameron Sexton, R-Crossville, and House Republicans to push ahead with a vote to expel the two young Black Democrats is not likely to jeopardize the GOP’s dominance in state politics or have an impact on statewide races.

But it was a political misstep that has energized state and national Democrats and propelled the expelled lawmakers onto the national stage, while affording no clear victory for Republicans, experts say.

Oscar Brock, a Republican National Committee member from Chattanooga, said the expulsion votes and ensuing national rancor was a political miscalculation that could have long-term ripple effects.

“They did overstep, they clearly overstepped: I don't think anyone is arguing they didn't,” Brock said of the lawmakers who violated House rules.

But Brock said Republican lawmakers may have overreacted.

“What I suspect they failed to take into account was that by treating them as harshly as they chose to, they would lift these three to national prominence in very short order and enable them to bring voice to an issue that many people are passionate about on both sides,” Brock said.

Kent Syler, professor of political science and public policy at Middle Tennessee State University, called the expulsion vote “a major political miscalculation.”

“Almost everything that could have gone wrong did,” Syler said.

Expulsion vote: GOP expels Democratic Reps. Justin Jones, Justin Pearson from House over gun-control protest

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With their vote, fiscally conservative Republican leaders have put taxpayers on the hook to pay for two special elections to formally fill the seats — elections in which Jones and Pearson will almost assuredly prevail.

But House Republicans are standing by their vote, and sticking together. While Sexton, widely viewed as one of the leading Republicans interested in a 2026 gubernatorial bid, declined an interview for this story, a spokesperson provided a statement from the entire House Republican Caucus in response to a request for a statement from the speaker.

"Expulsion was the right decision instead of censure for all three members," the caucus said. "The expulsions were based on the disruptive behavior of the three members and their choice to hold a protest in the House chamber on the House floor, shutting down the session. We are moving forward, and we remain focused on the tragic Covenant shooting and will continue to pass meaningful legislation that could have stopped or limited the female’s actions on that day."

Meanwhile, Tennessee Democrats are rejuvenated, turning the expulsion votes into a fundraising opportunity. Democratic President Joe Biden invited the lawmakers to the White House. And the day after the expulsion vote, Vice President Kamala Harris met with them during a surprise visit to Nashville and used their stories to highlight the need for gun control on the national level.

“Legislative Republicans basically had Democrats demoralized and in a bucket with a lid on,” Syler said. “This gave those Democrats energy, and ironically, an incredible megaphone that I haven’t seen in many, many, many years.”

Expulsion helps national Democrats frame gun-control debate for 2024

The House Republican vote to expel Jones and Pearson has energized Democrats nationally and opened an opportunity for the White House to further push gun-control policies and set the stage for presidential and down ballot races in 2024. An attempt to expel the third Democrat, Rep. Gloria Johnson of Knoxville, failed by one vote.

“I think this could have a bigger impact on our national politics in the immediate future than it does on Tennessee politics,” Syler said. “It was one more thing that national Democrats will use to help better define the narrative they're trying to paint the Republican Party nationally.”

Americans nationwide are divided on whether expulsion was the right consequence for Jones and Pearson.

Exclusive: Americans call Tennessee expulsions 'abuse of power,' back tougher gun laws

A national Paste BN/Ipsos Poll of 1,016 adults taken after the expulsion vote found Americans are split 49% to 48%, largely along party lines, on whether lawmakers who disrupt a legislative hearing should be expelled from office.

Overall, 51% of Americans consider the move to expel Jones and Pearson an “anti-democratic abuse of power,” while 42% viewed expulsion as “an appropriate way” to discipline lawmakers.

Democrats, though, overwhelmingly — 73% — see the expulsions as an abuse of power.

The national party is working to capitalize on it. Former U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder signed on to represent them. U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer sent a letter Wednesday to Attorney General Merrick Garland urging the Department of Justice to investigate the expulsion.

Biden decried the expulsions as “shocking, undemocratic, and without precedent,” and accused Tennessee House Republicans of choosing to “punish, silence, and expel duly-elected representatives” who “engaged in peaceful protest” instead of taking action to keep students safe.

Biden did not acknowledge that Jones and Pearson’s protest halted House business, nor did the president mention bipartisan school safety legislation the House passed last week — despite opposition from the three members facing expulsion. Instead, the president asked Congress to enact an assault weapons ban.

As the next generation of young Democratic leaders emerges, Syler said it’s not unlikely that the Tennessee Three, as the lawmakers have become known, could be invited to speak at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago next year.

And their fundraising machine continues to churn.

Could flip state legislative seats, not likely to sway statewide races

While new energy in Tennessee Democrats could result in some flipped legislative seats next year, it’s unlikely that the expulsion vote will seriously threaten the GOP supermajority or have broad implications for statewide races.

“It did very much increase the energy level on the Democratic side,” Syler said. “It's just that they've got to find races that are winnable enough.”

As incumbent U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tennessee, faces reelection next year, calls have already surfaced for Jones or Pearson to challenge her for U.S. Senate. The U.S. Constitution requires Senators to be 30 years old before taking office. Pearson’s 30th birthday will be just a few days after the 119th Congress is scheduled to begin on Jan. 3, 2025. Jones will turn 30 in August 2025.

Aside from age issues, Syler said it “would take a pretty major shift in the partisan makeup of the state” for a Democrat to prevail in a statewide race because of significant opposition in rural counties.

“I don't look for a lot of moderate Republicans — especially in a lot of the deep red rural counties — to be running against someone saying they did the wrong thing trying to expel three members of the House for breaking rules,” Syler said. “Until Democrats can reduce the toxicity of their brand in rural areas — and it's not just a Tennessee problem for Democrats — it's going to be hard for them to compete on a statewide level.”

But in suburban counties where the electorate is more moderate, opportunities could open up for Democrats.

“I suspect when the next midterms roll around there will be consequences, there will be an effect,” Brock said. “I hope not, but I suspect there will be more challenges than we're generally used to here.”

GOP criticism of House GOP leadership emerges

Some active in Republican politics are expressing concern, frustration, and even anger at House leadership over the expulsion vote.

Brock is concerned that the expulsion vote has damaged the GOP brand with some voters.

“I think you've pushed them into the arms of the Democrats. You've not only pushed them away, you've energized them to maybe field candidates to run against Republicans in Tennessee,” Brock told The Tennessean. “You've given the Democratic Party and the Justins the ability to raise money nationwide for their cause to elect Democrats to the statehouse.”

Surprise visit to Nashville: VP Harris meets with 'Tennessee Three' after expulsions over gun protests

In his first public statements since leaving office, former Republican Rep. Kent Calfee, called April 6, “a dark day” for the House, saying Sexton “was way over the line” for attempting the three expulsions, and called for his former GOP colleagues to hold a vote of no confidence in the House Speaker.

“Now we are know[n] as the raciest state in the US,” Calfee wrote in a tweet. “Will new companies want to invest in Tennessee by starting a business here or relocating here? The damage caused will not be repaired in my lifetime but a good place to start is calling for a vote of no confidence to @CSexton25 as we did Glen Casada.”

Republicans seek to reframe debate

Republicans on the state level who aren’t directly associated with the House have distanced themselves from the expulsion proceedings and have declined to comment directly on whether expulsion was an appropriate move.

“That was a house matter. My focus has been on this,” Gov. Bill Lee told reporters Tuesday as he announced executive action to strengthen background checks for gun purchases. “The right response to that for me and for our leadership is to say, where do we go forward? That’s what I’ve been thinking about: how is it that we move forward and create a safer place today than we had before?”

Likewise, during brief comments last week, Lt. Gov. Randy McNally said demonstrators “might have been a little bit distracting,” but “were fairly well behaved.”

“I think their actions were more directed toward the House today,” McNally said during a news conference last Thursday.

Meanwhile, in the days since the expulsion vote, House Republicans have sought to shift focus back on the six victims of the Covenant School shooting, and their legislative response.

In a joint statement issued shortly before Jones was reappointed Monday, House Majority Leader William Lamberth, R-Portland, and House GOP Caucus Chair Jeremy Faison, R-Cosby, said they would "welcome" expelled members who are reappointed, and emphasized their commitment to keeping children safe.

"Our state endured a horrific tragedy on March 27 that will never be forgotten. We continue to mourn the six lives lost as we pray for healing," Lamberth and Faison said. "We remain focused on solutions that ensure every child and parent feels safe in every community across the Volunteer state. “

Minutes before Jones re-entered the House chamber on Monday, Rep. Scott Cepicky, R-Culleoka, asked for a moment of silence to remember the six victims of the Covenant shooting, as well as victims of recent tornadoes, and those killed in a helicopter crash at Fort Campbell.

"We need to remember that six lives were lost a short time ago," Cepicky said. "We have to remember, members, that we represent 7 million Tennesseans from all different backgrounds, all different creeds, all different races.

“We have a job to do here: that’s to continue to move Tennessee forward. I hope and I pray, and I hope you all pray, that we can keep those individuals that have lost their lives, and we can always focus on ... trying to do the best thing for the people of Tennessee.”

Melissa Brown contributed.

Reach Vivian Jones at vjones@tennessean.com.