GOP says deep red Florida unwinnable for Biden. But can state help him win voters elsewhere?

Republicans insist deep red Florida will be a lock for the GOP presidential nominee next year, but could it help re-elect President Joe Biden just the same?

This spring, the governor and the Republican supermajority in Tallahassee served up an unsparingly red-meat legislative menu for the base.

Those entrées included a six-week abortion ban, repeal of a state permit requirement to carry a concealed firearm and expansion of a parental rights in education bill dubbed by critics as the "Don't Say Gay" law. Then there is the plethora of policies critics say are efforts to curtail academic freedom in universities, ban from books from K-12 classroom shelves and end diversity programs.

Florida Republicans' woke assault on the Walt Disney Co., which has become a legal quagmire, is also being watched nationally. It's a potentially fraught issue for voters in Midwest states where economic investment is coveted to reinvigorate industry and job creation. On Wednesday, Disney reportedly abandoned plans to relocate 2,000 employees from Southern California to Lake Nona in Central Florida.

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As the hanky drop was readied to close out the 60-day session, Gov. Ron DeSantis, who according to reports will file candidacy papers next week with an announcement around month's end, boasted Floridians had never witnessed "a bolder and more productive six months in the history of the state of Florida in terms of really delivering on big promises." The Florida Republican Party cheerfully tweeted: "Gov. @RonDeSantisFL and the Florida Legislature delivering results for Floridians."

But the Sunshine State's well-earned reputation as the nation's petri dish for hard-right laws and MAGA-fueled public policy, Democrats say, is exactly what will help them win over independent voters in critical swing states — like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia — necessary for Biden to get beyond the 270 electoral vote requirement next November.

On Thursday, Paste BN reported on a Biden campaign memo outlining a path to victory focused in part on winning over independent voters and repeating victories in heartland "Blue Wall" states as well as Nevada, Georgia and Arizona. It also indicated that Biden would be competing in Florida and North Carolina — two states that have voted Republican in recent years but the Democratic president hopes to flip.

In a video kicking off his re-election campaign last month, Biden said the country is still in a battle for personal freedoms and in a "fight for our democracy." What does that mean? Well, one Democratic strategist said Florida is Exhibit A.

"Florida is probably the best example for the Biden administration on their central theme of freedom, which is Biden's message right now," said Eric Johnson with Mercury Public Affairs in Florida. "It's the epicenter of an abortion ban at six weeks when a woman may not know she's pregnant, banning books and going after education and draconian policies against LGBTQ members."

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Communication strategist Spencer Critchley, who worked for former President Barack Obama's campaign, said Florida is an example of Republicans "riding the culture war horse too far" with "evermore extreme positions on abortion and guns and climate" even as the dangers of these policies materialize in peoples' daily lives.

"The key there is to lead with the way this violates people's fundamental values. That's where Republicans are losing people," he said of Biden's strategy.

Critchley said Biden can achieve the same result by building a "persuasive message" on some fundamental principles.

"If Joe Biden campaigns based on values that by far most Americans share … and approaches people based on those fundamental values that underlie democracy, things like individual freedom, basic fair play, basic kindness, not targeting vulnerable populations for fear and hatred and abuse, I think that will be a persuasive message across the country," he said.

Remember how Biden trashed Rick Scott on Social Security and Medicare? That may have been a harbinger.

It's not just political-science theorizing. This year, Biden used U.S. Sen. Rick Scott and his plan to sunset all federal programs unless reauthorized by Congress as his State of the Union punching bag.

In his address, Biden called out the proposal as a clear and imminent threat to both Social Security and Medicare. Two days after the speech, for good measure, Biden traveled to Tampa to give a speech — and placed a copy of Scott's plan on every seat in the audience.

"That's a great example that you don't just hit them with the policy facts," Critchley said. "When Biden does something like leaving those flyers on people's seats in that event, that is really, really smart. The impact of that is much greater than simply sharing the information in another context."

An irate Scott accused Biden of lying about his proposal and appeared in Sun City Center to reassure retirees. But ultimately, it was Scott who blinked in the eyeball-to-eyeball standoff by carving out Social Security, Medicare, the Veterans Administration and national defense from his sunset plan.

Critchley said the Biden-Scott political knife fight showed the potency of matching emotional appeal, demonstrated fact and rhetoric.

"You do it in a way that brings it home emotionally," he said. "When he was running on restoring the soul of America, people thought at the time it was just political. But they downplayed the impact of powerful political rhetoric. The poetry of it."

Polls show Trump with big lead over GOP rivals. But they also show he is not favored by most non-Republican voters.

Then there's the clear-cut, leading Republican presidential candidate, Donald Trump.

Polls show the former president opening up gaping leads over rivals and potential opponents. On Thursday, in the latest snapshot poll, this one in both Trump's and DeSantis' home state of Florida, Florida Atlantic University and Mainstreet Research had the former president routing the governor by 59% to 31%.

Trump has also touted polls showing his beating Biden, including one by Premise, though most other surveys show Biden on top. A May 16 Reuters/Ipsos poll put Biden up by six percentage points, 44% to 38%,

Moreover, Trump remains a polarizing figure nationally.

A survey released May 7 by the Washington Post and ABC News stated that more than half of those surveyed said they believed Trump should be charged with a crime. An NBC News poll issued April 25 showed a sizeable majority of Americans, 60%, not wanting Trump to run for president. And only 24% said they had a "positive" view of Trump's Make American Great Again political brand.

The political site FiveThirtyEight's polling average has Trump with a 51% unfavorable rating, but that's down from 57.3% in mid-December.

In a town hall hosted by CNN on Wednesday night, Trump called for a debt default even though that would be financially crushing for retirees depending on investment income. He called the violent attack on the U.S. Capitol, the capstone of a seditious attempt to thwart 232 years of elective democracy, "a beautiful day."

Asked to reassure women concerned about losing reproductive rights, potentially putting their lives at risk, Trump discussed the topic in terms of a political transaction dependent on "negotiations" and "deals" by "the pro-life." But support for strict restrictions on abortions, like Florida's, is a reason the GOP's expected red wave fizzled last November into a net loss of a U.S. Senate seat and a razor-thin, four-vote majority in the U.S. House.

Trump also rejected new restrictions on firearm ownership even as he said the country possessed "700 million guns" and struggled with "mental health." That position also runs counter to voter surveys, like one by Fox News last month, that showed ample support for greater gun safety measures and doubts about arming people as a response to mass shootings at schools, offices, shopping malls and other public places.

The former president also unabashedly revealed that the purpose of his policy to separate families seeking refuge at the southern border was to send a message they should not come, not purportedly to protect minors from human trafficking.

"When you say to a family that if you come, we're going to break you up, they don't come," Trump said as he acknowledged a policy immigration advocates called cruel did sound "harsh."

On Tuesday evening, after Trump's town hall appearance had concluded, Biden issued a succinct tweet.

"It’s simple, folks. Do you want four more years of that? If you don’t, pitch in to our campaign," he wrote on Twitter.

Longtime Florida political analyst says she understands Biden strategy but ...

Susan MacManus, longtime politics professor at the University of South Florida, said the Biden strategy is plausible but there are "two giant uncertainties" that still have to play out.

Specifically, she said, what will happen with the economy and will a national security threat emerge?

"Yes, I see their strategy but on the other hand the big question marks still remain," MacManus said. "There are two unknowns that have the possibility of changing the trajectory of a race, and they are powerful. Both of them have to do with the feelings of security. The first is economic security and the second personal security as well as national security."

In fact, MacManus said she can see where those two issues have already been determinant with Election Day 2024 still more than a year out.

She said one has been the economy, namely the country's two-year battle with supply-chain disruptions, high fuel and energy costs and spiraling prices for consumer goods.

MacManus said the other has been the chronic crisis at the southern border. The current year's influx comes on top of U.S. Customs and Border Protection data for fiscal year 2022 that showed a record 2.76 million people crossing the southwest border seeking refuge or a better life in America. That figure topped the previous record by 1 million people.

It's why Biden's approval ratings ranged from 48% to 36% in polls released this week, poor showings that in the best case don't even top 50%.

"Flame-ups on those issues can override all the things they are talking about," MacManus said about the themes of personal freedom and democracy at risk. "Those are time eternal things that matter most to voters year in and year out. Their economic security and their personal safety and security and that of their family."

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Polls show both parties should be worried about losing younger voters as 2024 approaches

Then there is an issue that she said both the Biden and Trump camps should be especially concerned about, age. But not necessarily in terms of mental acuity or physical agility, but rather, enthusiasm among younger voters, MacManus clarified.

At 66.8% of the electorate, the 2020 presidential election logged the highest voter turnout in a generation. But MacManus said 2024 may see far fewer ballots cast as surveys repeatedly show the country's voters telling pollsters they have no interest in a rematch between octogenarian Biden and septuagenarian Trump.

That's a particularly ominous trend for younger voter engagement. MacManus noted they are "not party-centric" and are swayed more by issues and the inspirational appeal of a candidate.

She said one reason voter turnout in Florida's 2022 midterm election plummeted by 9% from four years earlier is the candidates didn't address topics the youngest generations care most about, like climate change.

A similar result in 2024 could lead to defeat for either party.

"That's the worry that both parties have got to have, especially Democrats that are more dependent on younger voters," MacManus said.

Palm Beach Post reporter Stephany Matat contributed to this story.

Antonio Fins is a politics and business editor at the Palm Beach Post, part of the Paste BN Florida Network. You can reach him at afins@pbpost.com. Help support our journalism. Subscribe today.