'A tough row to hoe': Mike Pence faces uphill battle for GOP nomination
When former Indiana Gov. Mike Pence visited a New Hampshire lobster restaurant last week to speak to the state's Home Builders Association, he criticized President Joe Biden, talked about securing the southern border, establishing energy independence and declared the need for a new Republican "standard-bearer" to "turn this country around."
It had all the trappings of a campaign stop. So much so, the owner of the restaurant hosting the event momentarily forgot there wasn't a campaign yet.
"I'm glad you're running because I'll tell ya, looking around," restaurant owner Jack Newick told him, "I'm glad you're there."
"You're very kind," Pence replied, then lightly patted Newick's arm, as C-SPAN cameras captured the moment. "I don't have anything to announce today, but I'll keep you posted."
By all accounts, the former vice president is likely to make history when he runs against the president he served, Donald Trump. The candidacy is so assumed, and such a long time coming ― Pence has long had ambitions for the top job, even before he became Indiana's governor ― that some supporters have to remind themselves that Pence has yet to make the official announcement.
When the time comes, likely within the next month, Pence will have a challenging path to the nomination, political watchers say, primarily because he'll have to confront loyal Trump voters who haven't forgiven Pence for certifying the election results on Jan. 6, defying Trump's wishes.
Hop-scotching around early primary states, Pence is coupling his long track record of hardline stances on social issues like abortion and LGBTQ rights with a broader focus on fiscal issues, painting himself as a "conservative alternative" to the likes of Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who officially entered the 2024 presidential race Wednesday. That's the strategy powerful financial interests are getting behind, as signaled by the launch last week of a Super PAC encouraging a Pence run.
The Super PAC is the clearest indication yet that Pence will take the leap. The question remains whether Pence can appeal to a broad enough base to win the nomination.
It wasn't so long ago that Pence and Trump were thought of as a long shot, too, notes Pence's former chief of staff from his time as governor, Jim Atterholt.
"Anything can happen in the political arena, but you’ve gotta be in it to experience it," he said, adding, "Nobody will work harder than Mike Pence."
The most recent example from history that resembles the Pence-Trump scenario is from the 1912 presidential race, when Theodore Roosevelt, who had previously been a vice president and a president, challenged sitting president William Taft's reelection in the Republican primary. Roosevelt ended up losing and then running as a third-party candidate, splitting the Republican vote and allowing Woodrow Wilson to swoop in victorious.
"There are a lot of things that happen that history doesn’t really prepare us for," said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of an elections newsletter by the University of Virginia Center for Politics. "This is one of those."
The Trump factor
Pence was an ingregient in the unlikely marriage that helped the Trump ticket prevail in 2016. He brought political experience, a reliably conservative track record and party establishment connections that Trump lacked. Together, they united establishment and populist conservatives.
Pence's standing with Trump supporters changed when he refused to carry out Trump's wishes on Jan. 6 to block the certification of the 2020 election results. Rioters at the Capitol shouted "Hang Mike Pence." More than two years later, at an NRA convention in Indianapolis where a dozen presidential hopefuls, including Trump, gave speeches, Pence was the only speaker to draw light booing from the crowd ― though he turned the mood around and evoked cheers for his stances on protecting gun rights.
Favorability polls during Pence's time in the White House showed the percentage of Republicans who viewed him favorably hovering around 75%, according to YouGov. That dropped to about 60% just after Jan. 6. In the past year, as Trump has continued to lambast Pence publicly for his perceived betrayal, Pence has hovered around 30% favorability.
That's "the power of Trump to turn Republicans against other Republican figures," Kondik said.
Trump loyalists aren't likely to forgive Pence for his actions, said Laura Merrifield Wilson, political science associate professor at the University of Indianapolis.
"People might have adored Trump and liked Pence in 2016," she said. "But now, it feels like you can’t like both."
And that bodes poorly for Pence at this point. Early polling shows Trump with a supreme margin: He's polling 56% in a crowded field of potential candidates as of mid May, according to RealClearPolitics, compared to Pence's 6%.
But people watching Pence's campaign note that early polls are hardly a reliable barometer. If early frontrunners usually won the nomination, Jeb Bush might have become president in 2016.
So Pence's allies see reason for hope.
"We’re not too worried about conventional wisdom," said Scott Reed, co-chair of the new Super PAC dedicated to Pence, Committed to America. "We think this nomination fight is wide open. And that’s what campaigns are for."
Still, candidates are cognizant of Trump's sway over a powerful voting bloc in the primaries. Pence is largely avoiding outright criticizing Trump ― even when a jury found Trump liable for sexual abuse and defamation and ordered him to pay writer E. Jean Carroll $5 million, Pence sidestepped questions about whether this made Trump unfit for the presidency, saying instead that he "never heard or witnessed behavior of that nature" when they served together.
"They’re all playing this game: You can’t come out and be too much against Trump because you lose a big chunk of the voters," said Mike Murphy, a friend of Pence's and a former Indiana state representative.
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'The conservative alternative'
Like a candidate-in-waiting, Pence has spent much of the year speaking to business associations and conservative Christian groups in early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire about border security, Medicare and Social Security reform, job growth and "radical gender ideology."
The Super PAC, Reed said, will follow suit, building up field operatives in those early primary states, which also include South Carolina and Nevada. Pence is spending much of his time in Iowa, where at least half of likely Republican caucus-goers are typically Christian evangelicals ― Pence's strength.
"We’re gonna focus on Iowa like a laser beam," Reed said.
Evangelical voters have no reason to doubt Pence's positioning on social issues, given he spent much of his public service focusing on them. During his 12 years in Congress, he repeatedly sponsored bills to defund Planned Parenthood over abortion rights and said he was willing to shut down the government to do so; as Indiana governor, he signed a controversial Religious Freedom and Restoration Act that drew national criticism alleging it would allow discrimination against LGBTQ people.
But that evangelical base isn't large enough to push him to the front of the pack, Wilson said.
To win, and to overcome the populist wing that largely supports Trump, Pence would likely need to build a coalition of support among traditional conservatives, from national security hawks to the religious right, she said.
His focus on fiscal issues in public appearances speaks to this strategy. He's shaping himself as a limited-government conservative candidate who wouldn't go as far as someone like DeSantis in the culture wars, even telling Fox Business Network that while he strongly supports the "Don't say Gay" legislation prohibiting teachers from discussing gender and sexuality in the classroom, he disagrees with DeSantis' targeting of Disney after opposing that law.
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Organizers behind Committed to America, the new Super PAC formed to encourage a Pence run, believe that's Pence's path to victory: positioning himself as "the conservative alternative" to Trump and DeSantis. Others close to him, like Atterholt, consider his vision and potential appeal "Reagan-esque."
"Pence is gonna run an issue-oriented campaign, not chasing every cultural rabbit hole," PAC co-chair Reed said.
And while Trump's views on abortion have changed over time, Pence has remained steadfast in his anti-abortion stance throughout his public life. He was the first potential Republican presidential candidate to openly call for a national abortion ban.
Marjorie Jones Dannenfelser, president of Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, thinks his unwavering principles on that issue will appeal to conservative voters broadly, and that not all voters fit into neat labels.
"The pro-life issue is arguably the issue with the most intensity right now," she said. "Someone who can lead with that and be a visionary, and inspire people to follow a national pro-life leader, will really put themselves in a good position. Certainly Mike Pence is capable of that, more than capable. He’s spent a lifetime building towards that."
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Ralph Reed, chair of the Faith and Freedom Coalition, at least expects Pence to get a "fair hearing" but acknowledges it'll be "a tough row to hoe." Pence is lining up the funding, he's speaking at the right events, he's got the conservative track record and the name recognition, and by Reed's observation, he can work rooms and make voters feel heard.
"Some of it is his faith, some of it is that kind of aw-shucks Midwestern thing," he said. "It enables him to really connect with people. I just know there’s a tremendous reservoir of affection for this guy, so we’ll see whether it translates into anything."
Contact IndyStar state government and politics reporter Kayla Dwyer at kdwyer@indystar.com or follow her on Twitter @kayla_dwyer17.