Donald Trump's indictments are a big 2024 issue, but no one knows how it will play out
WASHINGTON – A presidential election that was already unique – an indicted ex-president – now has an unprecedented and unpredictable feature.
A twice-indicted president, maybe with more to come.
Trump's legal troubles will inevitably shadow the 2024 election because it looks like the defendant himself will make them a major campaign issue with the claim that Democrats and President Joe Biden are conducting a legal vendetta in order to defeat him.
As he prepared to plead innocent in Miami to federal charges of obstruction of justice, Trump posted a torrent of messages on Truth Social bemoaning "election interference" and urging his voters to stand behind him. He did the same thing after his late March indictment in New York state on charges related to hush money.
While polls so far show that Trump's grievance campaign is working – with Republicans – some of his GOP primary challengers are starting to note that his support is plummeting with independent voters who will decide the fall 2024 race.
"We've got to have someone that can win a general election," said former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who is seeking the GOP nomination.
GOP opponents start to speak out
Republican opponents who once played down the indictments, and even defended Trump, are starting to become more critical.
In her Fox News interview, Haley did criticize the Biden Justice Department for pursuing the prosecution in the first place. She also had harsh words for Trump and his hoarding of classified documents in defiance of a grand jury subpoena.
"If this indictment is true, if what it says is actually the case, President Trump was incredibly reckless with our national security," Haley said.
Another South Carolina-based Republican presidential candidate, U.S. Sen. Tim Scott, has also become more critical of Trump in light of the criminal charges.
It is a "serious case with serious allegations," Scott told reporters.
Campaigning while on trial?
One thing seems certain: Trump and other presidential candidates will be constantly reacting to events that will play out for the rest of the election, all the way to Election Day on Nov. 5, 2024.
At this point, Trump is looking at the distinct prospect of two trials – at least.
A judge in New York has scheduled a Trump trial in March – the middle of primary season – on state charges related to hush money paid an adult film actress who claimed to have had an affair with Trump.
In the documents case, the federal court in Miami is famed for a "rocket docket" that could lead to a trial by the end of this year, just before the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary.
But, wait; there could be more.
Trump is still under investigation in Georgia and Washington, D.C., over his activities in trying overturn his 2020 loss to Biden.
Also: A civil jury in New York found Trump liable for sexual abuse and defamation of writer E. Jean Carroll – and she has a separate defamation suit still pending.
Biden and the Democrats stay mum
All this activity will generate more revelations and more turmoil for the 2024 campaigns – at least the Republican ones.
The Democrats, meanwhile, are sitting back and watching the spectacle.
From Biden on down, Democrats leaders have mostly refrained from commenting on Trump's indictments, following the time-honored dictum that you don't interfere with opponents when they are in the process of destroying themselves.
“I have no comment," Biden told reporters last week.
Trump is winning with Republicans – so far
So far, Trump is still winning among Republicans who are just as resentful of Democrats as he is.
At this point, some political analysts believe that Trump has the Republican nomination all but locked up, even with diminished prospects in a general election against Biden.
"It’s making it less and less likely that he wins in November," said pollster Frank Luntz, "but more and more likely that he’s on the ballot."
Others aren't so sure.
Some Republicans, quietly, wonder if Trump will make it through the primaries, especially if he is convicted in Miami. They point to new polls that show a softening of Trump's support even among some Republicans.
A new Paste BN/Suffolk University poll reported that 34% of Republican and Independent voters – a fairly big number in a multicandidate primary – say his legal situation makes them less likely to vote for him. An additional 11% said it makes them more likely to vote for Trump, while 51% said it doesn't make any difference.
'A lot more information to come'
Trump is the first ex-president to face criminal charges, in federal and state courts.
He is also the first defeated president to try to regain the office since Grover Cleveland did it back in 1892.
Trump's indictments will influence the election; it's just that no one knows exactly how.
Chris Christie, a former New Jersey governor who is building his campaign on making the political case against Trump, told a CNN town hall that if Trump regains the White House his second term "will be all about him settling scores."
A former U.S. attorney, Christie also said: "Don't be fooled. There's a lot more information to come when they go to trial."