Will Donald Trump attend the Republican presidential primary debate in Milwaukee? What we know.
MADISON - Less than two weeks before the first Republican presidential debate of the 2024 campaign season, it's still unclear whether the GOP field's frontrunner will show up in Milwaukee to make his pitch to voters for another term.
Former President Donald Trump has refused to commit to attending the event, which will take place at Fiserv Forum on Aug. 23, and on Wednesday said he wouldn't sign a pledge to support the GOP nominee if he loses the presidential primary − a requirement put forward by debate organizers to participate.
“Why would I sign it?” Trump said in an interview on Newsmax. “I can name three or four people that I wouldn’t support for president. So right there − there’s a problem.”
But with Trump, making predictions is futile.
Who's coming to Milwaukee?: Republican presidential candidates who have qualified for the August 23 debate
Why would Trump attend the debate?
Wisconsin matters and Wisconsin voters will notice.
As one of few true swing states, winning Wisconsin in 2024 is crucial for any presidential candidate but especially Trump, where he pulled off a historic win for Republicans in 2016 and lost the state just four years later. Now, after using Wisconsin Republicans to orchestrate a campaign to stay in office following the 2020 election and a three-year campaign to discredit the state's election system, Trump has lost even more support among GOP voters − especially in the Milwaukee suburbs.
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton did not campaign in Wisconsin after the Democratic primary in 2016, a snub Democrats said contributed to her loss to Trump in the general election.
How to watch: TV channel for the Republican presidential primary debate
Why wouldn't Trump show up?
Because he's the frontrunner. Debates are typically opportunities for candidates behind in the polls to have a breakout moment, and can be risks for candidates leading in the polls.
Trump told conservative website Breitbart News it would be "sort of foolish" or "stupid" to attend given his significant polling lead over other candidates.
According to recent national polls, Trump is leading Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis by double digits − in some cases more than 40 percentage points.
But in Wisconsin, that's not the case.
Trump was favored by 31% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents surveyed, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was at 30%, according to a June survey by the Marquette University Law School.
But in a head-to-head matchup, DeSantis was favored by 57% and Trump by 41%.
And in theoretical general election matchups next year, President Joe Biden led DeSantis by 49% to 47%, while Biden had a bigger lead against Trump, 52% to 43%.
What to know: Your questions answered about the upcoming Republican presidential primary debate
When will we know whether Trump will participate?
Who knows. The Republican National Committee told Trump he has to decide at least 48 hours before the Aug. 23 event "for security and logistics reasons," according to Politico.
"Trump has suggested to at least two people that he might attend and sit in the audience to 'troll' the candidates, though those people didn’t believe he was serious," Politico reported.
What should we expect if Trump doesn't debate?
During the Democratic National Convention in 2020, also in Milwaukee, Trump held a rally in Oshkosh to provide some counter programming.
He's could do the same this year if he doesn't end up attending the debate.
Molly Beck can be reached at molly.beck@jrn.com.