The political fallout and upshot in the wake of the Trump verdict | The Excerpt
On a special episode (first released on June 5, 2024) of The Excerpt podcast: Last week’s unprecedented conviction of a former president on 34 felony counts in the hush money trial continues to reverberate in political circles and across the country. New polling by several organizations shows that while Trump’s support is holding at around 31%, about half of all Americans feel the guilty verdict was correct and that he should end his campaign for the presidency. As we enter these uncharted waters of political turmoil, how might this historic verdict continue to play out? Paste BN Washington Bureau Chief Susan Page joins The Excerpt to share her insights.
Hit play on the player below to hear the podcast and follow along with the transcript beneath it. This transcript was automatically generated, and then edited for clarity in its current form. There may be some differences between the audio and the text.
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Dana Taylor:
Hello and welcome to The Excerpt. I'm Dana Taylor. Today is Wednesday, June 5th, 2024, and this is a special episode of The Excerpt.
Last week's unprecedented conviction of a former President on 34 felony counts in the Hush Money trial continues to reverberate in political circles and across the country. New polling by several organizations shows that while Trump's support is holding at around 31%, about half of all Americans feel the guilty verdict was correct and that he should end his campaign for the presidency. As we enter these uncharted waters of political turmoil, how might this historic verdict continue to play out? Joining us now to dig into it is Paste BN Washington Bureau chief Susan Page. Thanks for being on The Excerpt, Susan.
Susan Page:
Hey, Dana, it's great to be with you.
Dana Taylor:
Let's start with fundraising. The Trump campaign reported a jaw dropping sum of $53 million raised in the 24-hour period following the guilty verdict. Does this signal that his supporters are sticking by him?
Susan Page:
$53 million. I mean, that is a record to beat all records. In 24 hours, we have never seen fundraising like that even after previous news events have sparked people to contribute. The other thing that's important about that fundraising number, 30% of it come from people who have not previously contributed to Trump's campaign. And that's important because now that Trump campaign can go back to them again and again and again for more contributions. So this is an incredibly significant number. It has helped narrow the gap. President Biden has had a big fundraising advantage over Donald Trump. That's been one of his strengths. It closes that gap. It puts Trump close to meeting Biden's own fundraising figures. So this was incredibly good news for the Trump campaign, and it's a sign of how his conviction on 34 criminal accounts rallied support behind him, including from some new voters.
Dana Taylor:
What was the Biden campaign able to convert the verdict into financial support too?
Susan Page:
Well, they got a bump. They didn't get a bump like the one that Trump got. I noticed that on Tuesday morning, the Biden people sent out a fundraising appeal that based on that big number from Trump, $53 million, they said to their donors, we have to do more because of the big haul that Trump had. So they're trying to use it for fundraising. That's a little different than they've done before, and they've had some effect, but not the success that Trump has had.
Dana Taylor:
Susan, as you know, the Biden White House has shifted its messaging since Trump's hush money trial ended to capitalize on Trump's new status as a convicted felon. What's the strategy here?
Susan Page:
The subject really of enormous debate over months in the Biden campaign was what to do about Trump's legal troubles, and mostly they decided in the past to keep it at arm's length. Part of that is because Trump has repeatedly accused Biden without evidence of being behind his prosecution in that New York case, that was just settled. But now we've seen a change in strategy by the White House. On Monday night, President Biden was at a closed door fundraiser in Connecticut where for the first time he referred to Trump as a "convicted felon." And I think that opens up a new stage of this campaign where President Biden is going to be more specific and more targeted in talking about Trump's legal problems, including this conviction and saying it makes him ineligible, unsuitable, unqualified to be president again.
Dana Taylor:
I want to turn now to some of the polling data out now post verdict. It's clear that the MAGA world is standing by the presumptive Republican nominee. Are we seeing any breaking of the ranks with non-MAGA Republican voters?
Susan Page:
So it's interesting to talk about this polling. We should remember that early polling is often polling that turns out to be ephemeral. The effect can be pretty short-lived, but the polling that we've had so far does show the Republican Party sticking with Trump about one out of 10 Republicans say the conviction gives them pause. That's not nobody, but it's about the same as the number we saw in polling before he was convicted on these charges. So there seemed to be no signs that significant numbers of Republicans, including those who are not crazy about Trump as a nominee, that it's going to make a difference in how they vote.
Dana Taylor:
Susan, independent voters are going to be a key voting block in November. Have there been any surprises with them?
Susan Page:
Yes, absolutely. This has been interesting and good news for the Biden campaign. A narrow majority of independent voters say the verdict was fair and say that Trump should end his campaign because of this verdict. That is a big number. There's another number, kind of a subset of the independent number, and these are voters that are called double haters. These are voters who say, "I don't want to vote for Trump. I don't want to vote for Biden." What these double haters do will be very important in determining who actually wins the election. And among double haters, two thirds of them say, "Yes, the trial was fair." And two thirds of them say, "Trump should end his campaign as a result." So that's a small group of voters, but it's a really critical one.
Dana Taylor:
Let's talk about Democrats. Have we seen any notable impacts of the Trump verdict on how they feel about Biden?
Susan Page:
Nothing very significant. We've had two polls after the verdict, and they both showed Biden ticking up a point or two in his standing against Trump. Now, in both of these polls, Biden now has an edge of one point or two points over Trump in a head-to-head, but that's well within the margin of error. It just shows us what we've known before, which is this is going to be a really close race.
Dana Taylor:
After the verdict came in, we learned that the sentencing would happen on July 11th, just four days before the Republican National Convention kicks off. Obviously, we can't know what that sentence will be, but let's play out a few scenarios. Because Trump is a first time offender for white collar crime, he isn't likely to get jail time here. That said, the judge could impose other sentences. What are the possibilities here and how might they impact Trump's campaign plans?
Susan Page:
Dana, let's not lose sight of how extraordinary this discussion is. We're discussing what are the sentencing possibilities four days before the Republican Convention of the man who is almost guaranteed to be the party's nominee. This is territory we have never been in, in American politics before. And there are a couple options that the judge could do with his sentencing, at that sentencing hearing. He could send Trump to jail. That's not impossible. As you said, we think that's unlikely, given that he was a first time offender, white collar crime, nonviolent.
It is rare for that to lead to a jail sentence but not unprecedented. He could give him probation. That would probably be good news for Trump, even if he was forced to meet with a probation officer once in a while, he could sentence him also to home confinement. And that would mean a virtual campaign for Trump from whatever home he was confined in, whether it'd be the one in Florida or the one in New Jersey or the one in New York. There's another possibility, which is the judge could impose a sentence, but then delay having it take effect Until Trump has finished the appeals he has vowed to file. And that would mean whatever the sentence was, wouldn't matter until after the election because those appeals will certainly take more time than just the next few months.
Dana Taylor:
Is there any chance the Republicans will nominate someone else besides Trump for the ticket?
Susan Page:
So it's usually good to hedge on a question like that, but I'd say no. I'd say there is no possibility that anybody but Donald Trump is going to be the presidential nominee.
Dana Taylor:
Well, Trump is vowed to appeal this verdict, Susan, what might this appeal look like and what are its chances and could this play out before November?
Susan Page:
So legal scholars of which I'm not one say it is unusual for an appeals court to overturn the verdict of a jury. So that would mean the bar is pretty high for a successful appeal. On the other hand, not impossible. And Trump's lawyers insist they have some grounds for appeal, which they're going to pursue, including the jury instructions that the judge read and then reread during the jury's deliberations when they asked to hear them a second time. So we'll see what appeals they have. Whether they're successful or not, we've looked at how slow justice can turn, and I think almost no one thinks that this whole process will be over before election day.
Dana Taylor:
There are three other trials that Trump is facing. Is there any chance we'll see Trump in court again on any of those before the election?
Susan Page:
It's not likely. There's a case in Georgia involving trying to overturn the state's election that's been mired in various controversies and legal processes. There's the case in Florida, the federal case involving the abuse of the nation's most sensitive documents. When Trump left the White House, a special prosecutor had initially thought, I think, that that was the case that would go to trial and be finished before the election. But the judge there has been very slow to act, set a court date, then took it back, hasn't set a new court date. Hard to see how that gets done before November. There's that one last case here in Washington, D.C. that involves efforts to overturn the election. That's another federal case from the special prosecutor. That could move forward, but they're waiting for the Supreme Court to rule on the question of presidential immunity. The court rules quickly. Maybe it's possible that turns around, but I think if you were betting, you would bet that this is the only case... This case in New York would be the only case that goes anywhere before election day.
Dana Taylor:
Coincidentally, we have another historic first that will likely impact this election cycle, and that's the first time a president's child will face a felony trial. Jury selection for that started on Monday. In support of his son Hunter, President Biden released a statement that morning and First Lady Jill Biden, along with other family members were in attendance. Remind us what those charges are and what are the political risks for the president here.
Susan Page:
So we don't want to make some equivalency between Trump's trial and Hunter Biden's trial. Hunter Biden is not a candidate or an official. He's a private citizen who happens to be the son of the president. That's one big difference. And the charges against him don't involve the execution of his office or a campaign for office. So I think it's important not to say that there's an equivalency here. That said, this is a political risk for President Biden. He's standing by his son. He's released a statement saying how proud he is of his son's battle against addiction. The first lady sitting there in the courtroom, that makes a big statement. Does this cause any pause among swing voters because it's a family tragedy that involves the allegations of a crime? The crime that Hunter Biden is accused of in this trial is that he lied on the form he filled out to purchase a gun. That he lied about whether he was addicted to or abusing drugs. So that's the question before the jury, [inaudible 00:11:44] now.
Dana Taylor:
Thank you so much for being on The Excerpt. Pleasure speaking with you, Susan.
Susan Page:
Such exciting times, Dana. Thank you.
Dana Taylor:
Thanks to our senior producer Shannon Rae Green for production assistance. Our executive producer is Laura Beatty. Let us know what you think of this episode by sending a note to podcasts@usatoday.com. Thanks for listening. I'm Dana Taylor. Taylor Wilson will be back tomorrow morning with another episode of The Excerpt.