What to expect from a GOP trifecta | The Excerpt
On Friday’s episode of The Excerpt podcast: Paste BN Congress & Campaigns Reporter Riley Beggin discusses what a GOP trifecta in Washington would look like. President-elect Donald Trump pledged to follow though with mass deportations, in an interview with NBC News. Paste BN Justice Department Correspondent Aysha Bagchi breaks down several reasons why President-elect Donald Trump may never be sentenced in his New York criminal hush money case. The Federal Reserve lowered its key interest rate by a quarter percentage point Thursday. What does that mean for mortgages and more?
Hit play on the player below to hear the podcast and follow along with the transcript beneath it. This transcript was automatically generated, and then edited for clarity in its current form. There may be some differences between the audio and the text.
Podcasts: True crime, in-depth interviews and more Paste BN podcasts right here
Taylor Wilson:
Good morning, I'm Taylor Wilson. And today is Friday, November 8th 2024. This is The Excerpt. Today, we expect to see a Republican trifecta in Washington next year. What might that look like? Plus what's next for Trump's New York hush money case. And what does the Fed's latest rate cut mean? President Joe Biden yesterday addressed the nation following President-elect Donald Trump's win.
Joe Biden:
I know for some people it's a time for victory, to state the obvious. For others, it's a time of loss. Campaigns are contests of competing visions. The country chooses one or the other. We accept the choice the country made. I've said many times, you can't love your country only when you win.
♦
Taylor Wilson:
Meanwhile, the nation is beginning to think about what full Republican control in Washington might mean next year. In addition to Trump's presidential win, Republicans have won the Senate and are poised to maintain power in the House, though a number of House races remain too close to call. I spoke with Paste BN Congress and campaigns reporter Riley Beggin for more. Riley, thanks for hopping on.
Riley Beggin:
Anytime.
Taylor Wilson:
So Riley, the GOP is said to have full control in Washington. You wrote about some of what this might mean going forward. Let's start with Trump's cabinet. How does Republican control of the Senate potentially make this task smoother for Trump?
Riley Beggin:
The Senate is locked down, already been called for Republicans, so we know for sure that President-elect Trump is going to have an easier time getting his cabinet picks confirmed in the Senate. They have the sole control over confirming those nominees. And it's usually a pretty simple process, but it can get very convoluted and contentious when the cabinet picks are controversial. But in this case, because Republicans have a majority in the Senate and honestly they might have even more races go in their favor here before the week is over, that they're probably going to have an easier time confirming those picks.
Taylor Wilson:
So let's talk policy, Riley. What will this control mean potentially for some of Republicans biggest policy goals and really what are some of those policy aims?
Riley Beggin:
So the things you've heard Trump talk about on the campaign trail, of course are going to be top of mind for Republicans in Congress. But even aside from those campaign promises, there are a handful of things that were going to happen no matter what next year. And the makeup of Congress was going to determine essentially what direction those policies went in. So one big example is the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which was the big legislative accomplishment under the first Trump Administration. Many of the provisions of that bill are said to expire in 2025. So it created this opportunity for lawmakers to really change up the tax code. If Democrats won, we expected them to really overhaul what Trump did. And since Trump is going to be the president next and Republicans are going to run Congress, we can expect a lot of those tax cuts to be extended. And some of those other tax policies that you probably heard Trump talk about, like no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, are probably going to be the sorts of things that are part of that negotiation.
Taylor Wilson:
We also know how big of an issue abortion has been during this election cycle. The American public remains largely opposed to a federal abortion ban. What have we heard in terms of the promises from either Republicans or Democrats when it comes to this?
Riley Beggin:
Republicans have repeatedly said that they would not pass a federal abortion ban while Democrats have insisted that they would. It's going to be put to the test now with total control. Are they still going to push back on calls from Evangelical Christians and other members of their base who really want to see those federal restrictions? And then to that end, there is this thing called the filibuster, which of course sounds very wonky, but it is essentially a 60 vote threshold in the Senate that any legislation needs to clear in order to become law. And because we so rarely have a 60 vote majority in the Senate, that usually gives the minority some power. So Republicans have repeatedly said they are not going to eliminate the filibuster. But if they run into some roadblocks when it comes to passing their agenda, maybe they're tempted to do that and maybe Trump pressures them to do that. And we'll see.
Taylor Wilson:
Of course, Riley, this is not the first time we've seen this kind of trifecta in Washington. What happened the last time we saw either party hold a trifecta in Washington and might that give us any indicators of really what's in store next year?
Riley Beggin:
So the last time that we had a trifecta in Washington was just 2021 and 2022, which is not that long ago, Democrats controlled both the House and the Senate and the White House with President Joe Biden. The result of that was the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, which is this multi trillion dollar package that passed clean energy subsidies and progressive tax laws and social policy and all sorts of things. And then the last time before that, Republicans had a trifecta in 2017 and 2018 during Trump's first term, the tax bill was probably the big accomplishment that came out of that period. And then the last one I'll mention is before that in 2009, 2010, Barack Obama also had a trifecta. And we saw some big changes there too, including the Affordable Care Act, which is also known as Obamacare, a big change to our healthcare system. So that said, you can expect potentially some really sweeping policy changes.
Taylor Wilson:
All right. Riley Beggin covers Congress and campaigns for Paste BN. Folks can find this full piece with a link in today's show notes. Thank you, Riley.
Riley Beggin:
Anytime. Thanks.
♦
Taylor Wilson:
Donald Trump in a telephone interview with NBC News pledged to follow through with mass deportations of migrants who crossed the border illegally and he had no idea what it might cost. Trump told NBC, "It's not a question of a price tag. We have no choice." Claiming that too many criminals and drug lords are in the country illegally. Trump has not elaborated on the details of how such a plan might work.
Vice President-elect J. D. Vance has estimated Trump's actions could result in a million people being removed from the country each year. A pace the nonpartisan American Immigration Council estimated what cost about $88 billion annually. To deport all the people in the US without authorization would take about a decade and cost nearly a trillion dollars, the Council said. For more on the potential impact of a new Trump Administration on immigrant communities and families around the country, be sure to tune in Monday to The Excerpt when I speak with national immigration reporter Lauren Villagran.
♦
After his election victory, there are several reasons why President-elect Donald Trump may never be sentenced in his New York criminal hush money case. I spoke with Paste BN Justice Department correspondent Aysha Bagchi to break them down. Hi there, Aysha.
Aysha Bagchi:
Hi, Taylor. Good to see you.
Taylor Wilson:
Good to see you. So let's start with the Supreme Court and this potential lifeline Trump got from them earlier this year. How might this factor in in this case?
Aysha Bagchi:
Yes, Trump's criminal sentencing was actually already in jeopardy even before the election because the Supreme Court included in a different case how presidential immunity plays out. That was his federal election interference criminal case. But there's a portion of that ruling that five justices signed onto that addressed a different issue. It had to do with the evidence that can be introduced at a trial, not just the charges that can be brought against a former sitting president. And the Supreme Court said that evidence of certain official acts just can't come into a trial at all, that that jeopardizes the ability of a president to freely go about his or her business. And that ruling came out after Donald Trump was convicted in his New York case. So it really threw it into a bit of a tailspin in terms of what's going to happen.
Donald Trump filed a motion basically saying that the 34 felony convictions, that they should all be tossed out and actually that the indictment that came down from a grand jury should also be tossed out. And we haven't had a ruling on that yet. The judge in the case, Judge Juan Merchan, is scheduled to give a ruling next week. That's still on the books, it's still on the calendar as something that's going to happen, although the election puts everything into question a little bit. But the judge is still scheduled to rule on that. And if he rules in Trump's favor, then all the convictions go away. Even if he rules against Trump, Trump is going to appeal that ruling. And while he's appealing it, the judge could also decide to delay the sentencing date, which is currently scheduled for November 26th. Or an appeals court could step in and say, "Hey, we want to resolve this immunity issue before any sentencing takes place." So already Trump had an argument for avoiding this and the election only helps him out.
Taylor Wilson:
And Aysha, you also outlined the potential political firestorm, as you put it, that sentencing could create. What do you mean by that exactly?
Aysha Bagchi:
Yeah. I mean, now Donald Trump is the president-elect. There was already a political firestorm around the prosecution surrounding him, but that is only heightened by the situation now. He is clearly the standard bearer for the Republican Party and he is a central vehicle to getting their legislative and policy agenda into action. So that gives a lot of Republicans who are in power strong incentives to want to make sure that Donald Trump isn't being hurt by the criminal system, that he isn't being interfered with, and strong incentives to appear loyal. A majority of voters voted for Donald Trump and he won the electoral college vote. So that just shows that there is quite a wide degree of support for him becoming the next president. And that also creates a backdrop in which a lot of people wouldn't want criminal cases interfering with his ability to do his job. That might be true even for people who didn't vote for him.
Taylor Wilson:
Well, there are apparently some actual functional legal roadblocks that could be in place after this election. Can you talk through some of those?
Aysha Bagchi:
He has two types of constitutional arguments he can raise for why his sentencing shouldn't go forward. One of those arguments has to do with what's called the separation of powers in the Constitution. So basically how you think about that is you've got three branches of government, the presidency, that's the executive branch, the legislative branch, that's Congress, and the courts. And the idea is everyone has a different function and you're not supposed to interfere with each other. And now that Donald Trump is going to be president, there's an argument he can make that going forward with sentencing would be an unconstitutional interference by the courts with the presidency. And then because this is a state case, he's also got an argument about what's called federalism. That's basically the idea that state law isn't supposed to interfere with federal law.
Taylor Wilson:
And Aysha, in terms of the possibility of a sentencing delay, what might that look like and what new legal issues might that bring?
Aysha Bagchi:
Yeah. Another possibility is that the New York Court says, "Okay, we're not going to go forward with a sentencing right now, but all that means is we're putting this all on hold. And four years from now, Donald Trump, when you are no longer President of the United States, then your sentencing date is going to be scheduled." So that's still a possibility of just delaying this all out, but time also creates some advantages for Donald Trump. First, just from a sympathy perspective, he would be in his 80s at that time. A lot of times courts take those sorts of factors into consideration, how old someone is, it has to do with what the criminal justice system is aimed at.
So that's a factor that could play into his side. You can also make some constitutional arguments have to do with delays. There's a provision of the US Constitution called the Due Process Clause that basically says that you have procedural rights when you are indicted, when you're facing criminal charges. And sometimes lawyers make arguments that because time has gone by, evidence has degraded, witnesses don't remember things as well, some witnesses might've died. Maybe that there are records that I could have gotten, but the cell phone company deleted those records after two years, this sort of thing. And then there's also the political question as well, would people care about prosecuting Trump or getting him sentenced? Some people very well may four years from now, but some people might not.
Taylor Wilson:
All right. Aysha Bagchi covers the Justice Department for Paste BN. Aysha, I always appreciate picking your brain from the legal world. Thanks so much.
Aysha Bagchi:
Thank you, Taylor. It's good to be here.
♦
Taylor Wilson:
The Federal Reserve lowered its key interest rate by a quarter percentage point yesterday. Its second straight rate cut amid easing inflation and a move set to further trim borrowing costs for millions of Americans. But the more modest cut likely foreshadows a slower pace of rate decreases that economic forecasters say was solidified by Trump's election victory. His tax, trade and immigration policies are expected by forecasters to partly reignite inflation, which has pulled back substantially since 2022. Meanwhile, for his part, when asked if he would resign from the Fed's board if asked by the new administration, Fed chair Jerome Powell said flatly, "No." The day after Trump's election win, investors sent bond yields sharply higher. And the so-called Trump trade is likely to keep rates for home loans rising despite the Fed's Thursday rate cut, experts say. That means that anyone looking to buy a home or lock in a lower refinance rate will have to seize any chance they get over the next few weeks before rates head higher for what could be a while.
♦
Thanks for listening to The Excerpt. We're produced by Shannon Rae Green and Kaely Monahan. And our executive producer is Laura Beatty. You can get the podcast wherever you get your pods, and if you're on a smart speaker, just ask for The Excerpt. I'm Taylor Wilson and I'll be back tomorrow with more of The Excerpt from Paste BN.