Consequences of a potential ideological shake up loom over Wisconsin court race
A contentious race for a seat on Wisconsin’s Supreme Court bench is expected to have ramifications at home and beyond state borders.
Waukesha County Judge Brad Schimel and Dane County Judge Susan Crawford face off Tuesday for the court’s vacated seventh seat. The winner of their race will determine whether the 4-3 split on Wisconsin’s highest judicial body has a conservative or liberal majority.
In a state often hampered by disagreements between a Democratic governor and Republican-controlled legislature, the state Supreme Court has crucial influence over Wisconsin policymaking.
Abortion access, voter ID laws and union rights are among the issues that could come before the court.
Outside of Wisconsin, the race is also heralded as a potential referendum on President Donald Trump. Already, his billionaire Elon Musk has spent around $20 million to boost Schimel, the conservative candidate.
Democrats are also eyeing an opportunity to advance with a win in the Great Lakes state. The party down on its luck in Washington has had a successful track record in 2025 elections so far, and donors on the left have also jumped into the race on behalf of the liberal candidate, Crawford.
State Supreme Court to decide on abortion ban
Abortion was a key issue in the last Wisconsin Supreme Court election two years ago, which, before this year, held the record for running the country’s most expensive judicial race.
Seven months after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, and with it decades of abortion access, liberal judge Janet Protasiewicz was elected to Wisconsin’s top court and flipped the bench’s majority.
This time around, abortion may not be quite as potent, though the issue remains salient with the state Supreme Court set to weigh in on a 19th-century abortion ban.
The 1849 law, enacted a year after Wisconsin became a state, criminalizes “the willful killing of an unborn quick child” and excludes exemptions for rape or incest.
Crawford has made her support for access to abortion a campaign cornerstone and before becoming a judge, she represented Planned Parenthood of Wisconsin as a private attorney.
Schimel has previously said he believes there is “not a constitutional right to abortion.”
Will congressional districts be redrawn?
Both sides have cited control of Wisconsin’s state and congressional maps as a cause for concern in this race.
The Wisconsin Supreme Court in 2023, which had a 4-3 liberal-leaning majority, ordered changes to the state legislative map that made local races more competitive for Democrats.
However, the same court declined a request to redraw boundaries for the Wisconsin congressional map. Barry Burden, a political science professor and director of the Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said he believes the issue is being “overblown” in this year’s race.
Even if the bench did end up hearing a case about the federal districts, Burden pointed out there are many steps between filing a lawsuit, the court making a decision and the maps changing. And whoever wins on Tuesday will not take office until August, less than a year before the state’s midterm election primaries.
“I think it’s possible, but I wouldn’t say that it’s likely,” Burden said of congressional redistricting. “And it’s not the most important thing determining what happens in those midterm elections.”
Implications for 2026 midterm elections
Regardless of what happens with Wisconsin’s congressional map, Tuesday’s outcome could carry symbolic weight ahead of next year's midterm elections.
A regular member of the swing state squad, the Great Lakes bellwether aligns with many of the country’s demographics (although its population is significantly whiter) and offers a measuring stick for both parties heading into 2026.
If Schimel loses, Democrats are poised to interpret the results as a rebuke of Trump and the broader Republican agenda. Should Crawford fall short, Republicans will likely tout how they stopped Democrats’ momentum in the 2025 special elections.
“The Wisconsin Supreme Court race is kind of a middle ground,” Burden said. “So, it’s probably that it more closely resembles what we would see in a midterm than these other local contests that have been happening.”