Trump tariffs caused a market meltdown. Could they sink the GOP’s political fortunes, too?
President Donald Trump has described the U.S. economy as an ailing patient that needs some “medicine,” and he prescribed tariffs as the remedy.
Now Republicans increasingly are nervous that they’re the ones who could be forced to take their medicine in the 2026 midterm elections if the president’s tariff gambit sours voters and Trump is left fighting with a Democratic majority in Congress for his final two years in the White House.
“Whose throat do I get to choke if this proves to be wrong?” North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis, one of the GOP's most vulnerable incumbents in next year's election, asked during a hearing on Capitol Hill.
He's not alone. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, warned of a political "bloodbath" for Republicans if a trade war tanks the American economy. Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., reminded his colleagues how tariffs have "decimated" the GOP and left them without political power in the previous century for six decades.
There's no dispute that Trump’s sweeping targeted tariffs on goods from many foreign countries delivered a shock to the economy – the dominant issue in any election, and one that helped usher the Republican president back into office after four years in the political wilderness.
In the face of mounting political blowback that shows how explosive the issue is, Trump on April 9 paused the most severe tariffs for every country except China. Where he goes next on trade is uncertain. The stakes are high, and Trump is intimately familiar with how the economy can decide the fate of political parties and their leaders.
"People were jumping a little bit out of line,'' Trump told reporters at the White House in explaining his reasons for the tariff pause. "They were getting a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid.''
Blaming Biden
During his 2024 campaign, Trump hammered on high inflation under President Joe Biden and promised a new golden age for the American economy. It worked. The Biden economy − despite strong employment and a soaring stock market – proved wanting for many voters, and Trump has continued to criticize it months after taking office.
But even Republicans are now saying Trump owns the economy – for better or worse – by injecting so much uncertainty into it. The president's tariffs represent one of the biggest economic disruptions undertaken by any chief executive, and Republican leaders will have to answer for what comes next as worried constituents brace for price increases on everyday goods and stomach the economic turbulence seen in recent days with the stock market.
“Luckily, we're doing this far out from the midterms,” former Trump White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer told Paste BN: “The president's willing to go play the long game, and I think it will benefit the country.”
After Trump announced his tariffs early in April, markets plummeted, business leaders issued dire warnings and economists predicted rising prices to come. Trump’s own aides have been deeply divided, feuding in public as the trade war escalated, with China and the European Union imposing big retaliatory tariffs.
At fundraising dinner April 8 for the House GOP in Washington, Trump projected confidence.
"We're going to win the midterm elections and we're going to have a tremendous, thundering landslide, I really believe that ... and I really think we're helped a lot by the tariff situation that's going on," the president said at the National Republican Congressional Committee's dinner.
Yet after days of digging in, Trump less than 24 hours later had relented and announced a 10% reciprocal tariff − lower than what many countries faced − for everyone except China for 90 days. The pullback came after economic experts increasingly warned about a recession, and GOP lawmakers spent days publicly fretting about how that could hurt the party politically.
“If we're not on the right track by February (2026), there will be I think serious political consequences,” Tillis told reporters.
On April 9, GOP lawmaker said they were breathing a sigh of relief as stocks and their major indexes soared upon news of the tariff pause.
"The marketplace likes it, the stock market likes it, I like it," Paul said.
Nervous GOP
Republicans are loath to buck Trump after years of seeing him attack GOP dissenters and drive them out of office through retirements or supporting primary challenges. His grip on the party is considerable.
Yet there are plenty of signs of discomfort within Republican ranks over tariffs. Though a mass defection appears unlikely, some lawmakers – including strong Trump allies – are starting to cautiously speak out.
Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, sponsored legislation limiting Trump’s tariff powers. Grassley is an ardent Trump supporter, but tariffs could have a big impact on Iowa farmers who ship grains overseas.
Six other Republicans signed on to the bill, including other farm state lawmakers and senators in vulnerable districts that are up for reelection in 2026, such as Tillis and Maine's Susan Collins.
Tillis said at a Senate Finance Committee hearing attended by U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer that he is skeptical starting "a trade war on all fronts" will be successful.
Tillis’ Democratic opponent posted a video on social media hitting the Republican senator on tariffs.
Trump's former Interior Secretary, Montana Rep. Ryan Zinke, told Paste BN his constituents understand that unfair trade practices should be reviewed and that it's important to bring more manufacturing back to the United States, which he said "directed" tariffs could accomplish.
"What I'm hoping is they're short-term and they're purposeful," he said. "I think anything long-term that hurts the economy will affect (Republicans in the midterms), just because people do vote with their pocketbooks."
Cruz, who is closely aligned with Trump and his MAGA movement, said tariffs should be used to negotiate deals and not become a long-term economic tool. A trade war would hurt the U.S. economy and have major political consequences, he said.
The outcome of the tariff battle "is going to be probably the single biggest determinant of what the 2026 midterm elections look like," Cruz said on his podcast.
“If we go into a recession, particularly a bad recession, 2026 in all likelihood politically would be a bloodbath,” Cruz said. “You would face a Democrat House, and you might even face a Democrat Senate.”
Paul, a Libertarian-leaning Kentucky Republican who is deeply opposed to tariffs, has been pointing to a history lesson from a century ago – the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 − to sound the alarm about potential political fallout from Trump’s actions. Paul blames Smoot-Hawley for ushering in decades of Democratic dominance in Congress.
"They were decimated for 60 years. Republicans did not control the House and Senate for 60 years," Paul said.
Even lawmakers who aren't up for reelection are beginning to sweat − and are warning of the potential political consequences − as financial markets plummet and expectations for a recession grow.
Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., a staunch Trump ally, told Greer that Republicans recognize the United States' trading partners have "taken advantage of us."
“But you’re also hearing that our constituents rely on trade, and they’re going to be harmed by it," he said. After the hearing, he said he wasn't reassured by Greer's testimony.
Asked later whether he feels as if he understands the Trump administration's plan, Johnson told reporters: "Does anybody?"
'Immense' political damage
The comments in recent days show Republicans already are eyeing the 2026 midterm election, which is 20 months away, with concern.
“The Republican Party’s in charge,” said GOP consultant Alex Conant. “If the economy goes into recession, the Republican Party’s going to be blamed. They recognize if Trump breaks the economy he owns it, and they’re very concerned about the potential impact of tariffs.”
Democrats are ready to pounce. Washington Rep. Suzan DelBene, who runs her party's House campaign operations, said Trump's tariff policy will be a part of Democrats' campaign messaging as they aim to retake the House in 2026.
"They promised to voters that they were going to focus on lowering costs, to focus on kitchen table issues, and they've broken that promise," DelBene told Paste BN. "We'll continue to hold Republicans accountable for the damage that they're doing to American families and to our economy."
Republicans have a favorable Senate map in 2026, and they are unlikely to lose control of that chamber, said Larry Sabato, a political science professor and director of The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. But Democrats are slightly favored to win the House, according to the handicapping done by his team at the nonpartisan Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and an economic downturn would boost their chances.
“The longer this chaos goes on, the more likely it is for Democrats to not only win the House but win it by a decent margin,” Sabato said.
How long Trump has to show progress in his tariff negotiations is an open question. Sabato said he believes voters' views on Trump’s economic gamble will start to harden over the summer. Conant argued that the GOP will benefit if Trump is successful, but warned that the alternative could rock the party.
“The political damage will be immense,” he said.
For his part, Trump told reporters in announcing the tariff pause that "nothing's over yet" on his major push to revamp American trade policy. Mindful of the politics behind his push, the second-term president also made it clear he's watching the financial markets and boasted about how they reacted to his latest move.
While the markets looked "pretty glum" in recent days, Trump celebrated the big jump in stocks April 9.
"That’s a pretty big change, and I think the word would be 'flexible,'" he said. "You have to be flexible."