Trump launches Senate lobbying blitz for his tax bill: What to know

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WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump is lobbying potential Senate holdouts in an effort to push through his sweeping tax plan, despite major concerns from multiple Republicans who fear the package's impact on the deficit and health care and a blistering rebuke from former Department of Government Efficiency leader Elon Musk.

The Republican president's second-term legislative agenda is on the line as the upper chamber is gearing up for a four-week sprint, during which they will seek to iron out concerns within the GOP conference and pass something that can also get through the House's narrow margins and onto the president's desk for signature into law.

It won't be easy. As in the House, the Senate has fiscal conservatives who are concerned that the bill will add to the federal deficit and moderates who have problems with the potential impact on Medicaid health coverage.

Appeasing one camp will be hard without inflaming the frustrations of the other, forcing Republican leaders to strike a delicate balance to get the votes they need, as no Democrats are expected to support the proposal.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters on June 3 that Republicans will "make some modifications to it, strengthen and improve it."

But "at the end of the day, the math is very simple: It's 51 in the Senate and 218 in the House," Senate Majority Leader John Thune of South Dakota told reporters on June 3, referencing the majority needed in both the House and Senate. "So as we work through that process, we're going to have our eye on that prize."

Deficit blues

Several senators have said they're worried about the massive price tag of the legislation, which would extend Trump's 2017 tax cuts and implement several new ones, including major campaign promises such as no tax on tips or overtime.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has estimated that the bill would add more than $3 trillion to the federal debt over the next 10 years, adding to the country's already massive $36.2 trillion debt.

The package also increases the debt ceiling by $4 trillion – another sticking point for some Republican senators.

Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wisconsin, has drawn a red line over the boosted spending, saying he won't vote for the package unless it goes further to cut spending and only raises the debt ceiling enough to avoid a default for a year.

"We should be tying how much we increase the deficit to how much we actually get in terms of deficit reduction," Johnson said.

Sens. Rick Scott, R-Florida, and Rand Paul, R-Kentucky, have similar concerns.

"I support getting a bill done, I want to get the tax cuts permanent and the border money and military. But we've got to get spending under control," Scott said.

Trump met with Scott and spoke on the phone with Johnson and Paul. Paul said the president didn't change his mind on the bill, and that the two "disagreed" on his stance on the debt ceiling. Trump lashed out at him on social media the following day. Johnson said his conversation with Trump was "cordial," but said he's still encouraging the White House to shift on his demands.

Musk fans the flames

While the fire of fiscal conservatives' concerns grows, Musk may have poured gasoline on it.

Trump's billionaire former adviser, who led DOGE, posted on X that the bill is "outrageous" and a "disgusting abomination," followed shortly by a threat to primary Republicans who voted for the bill. Musk has been critical of the legislation, despite his support for the president pushing it.

Musk's post came in the middle of the Republicans' lunch meeting. Johnson said it was "passed around" and that he "texted it to a few people" to underscore his point.

Thune told reporters he and Musk "have a difference of opinion."

"My hope is, as he has an opportunity to further assess what the bill does, he’ll come to a different conclusion," Thune said.

House Speaker Mike Johnson said the billionaire's comments were "disappointing" and said Musk is "terribly wrong" about the bill.

Medicaid concerns

Some Republicans, meanwhile, are worried that the cuts are too deep and could impact health care for low-income Americans.

The House-passed legislation would make major changes to Medicaid, saving $625 billion from the low-income health care program, while pushing an estimated 7.6 million Americans off of their coverage.

Sens. Josh Hawley, R-Missouri, and Jim Justice, R-West Virginia, are worried about a provision in the bill the House passed that limits states from raising money to pay for their part of Medicaid spending through health-care-related taxes known as "provider taxes."

Hawley is also concerned about a portion of the bill he's calling the "sick tax," which would require people who earn between 100% and 138% of the federal poverty level to pay up to $35 per medical service. That income range is currently a salary of $35,365 to $44,367 annually for a family of four.

Trump and Hawley also spoke on the phone, during which Hawley said the president assured him that there would be no Medicaid benefit cuts in the final package.

Both the provider tax and the "sick tax" could be considered a benefit cut, Hawley said on June 2, because the former could close rural hospitals and the latter would make it more expensive for people to see the doctor.

Other senators, like Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, and Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, may also put up roadblocks over potential impacts to Medicaid.

Green energy funding

The House bill would cut off many renewable energy tax credits for projects beginning 60 days after the bill passes. It would also rescind several other climate change-related provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, including a $7,500 tax credit for electric vehicles.

It would pull back unspent money for several grant and loan programs at the Energy Department and the Environmental Protection Agency, delay methane fees for oil and gas companies, repeal additional rules encouraging the adoption of electric vehicles, and accelerate permitting for fossil fuel projects.

While senators like Scott of Florida want to strip down the IRA's green energy boosters further, another group of senators thinks the changes go too far.

Murkowski, Sen. Jerry Moran, R-Kansas, and Sens. John Curtis, R-Utah, and Thom Tillis, R-North Carolina, sent a letter to Thune in early April warning that rolling back the IRA's renewable energy tax credits could create major disruption to American businesses.

"What we're trying to focus on is to make sure that if businesses have invested and have projects in progress, that we do everything we can to hold them harmless, whether or not we continue some of these programs out into the future," Tillis told reporters on June 2.

What's next?

Senators will begin introducing their own version of the bill text, beginning with the least controversial portions of the bill this week and ending with the most divisive. That means the changes to Medicaid and tax provisions – both overseen by the Senate Finance Committee – are likely to come later in the month.

Whatever they craft will need to pass the Senate with at least 50 votes. If there's a 50-50 tie, Vice President JD Vance would be required to cast the tie-breaking vote.

Sen. Markwayne Mullin, R-Oklahoma, said he thinks their product can pass the House again as long as it doesn't go below the House's $1.5 trillion in spending cuts and doesn't touch a deal struck with blue-state Republican House members who demanded changes to state and local tax deductions. Mullin has served as an informal liaison between the House and Senate as the two chambers struggle with differences.

"As long as we leave those two things there and then we put our fingerprints on the rest of it," he told reporters in the U.S. Capitol, "I think we’re in good shape."