The risks for Trump of 'regime change' in Iran: Just ask George W. Bush

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Regime change is harder than it looks.

Just ask George W. Bush.

The decision now facing President Donald Trump on Iran over whether to try to overthrow an unfriendly government is one that previous commanders-in-chief have wrestled with in countries from Iraq to Cuba − often with catastrophic consequences.

"I may do it," Trump told reporters on the White House lawn on Wednesday, on June 18. "I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I'm going to do."

For John F. Kennedy, the CIA-backed Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961 was a Cold War disaster that left Fidel Castro in power. Emboldening the Soviet Union, it contributed to the Cuban missile crisis a year later, bringing the world to the brink of a nuclear war.

And for the younger President Bush, the Iraq War, launched in 2003, succeeded in overturning Saddam Hussein's rule, but enmeshed the United States in a war that lasted more than eight years and had repercussions that continue to ripple through the region.

The toll of the U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq included at least 4,480 Americans killed and 32,000 wounded. More than 100,000 Iraqi civilians died. The financial cost was at least $806 billion.

Now Trump is making some of the same calculations that Bush did: Allegations of a nuclear threat. The urging of allies, in this case Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, that the regime is weak and ripe to be toppled. And the appeal of making a bold stroke that solves a problem, once and for all, that has frustrated previous presidents.

Dueling threats: 'Unconditional surrender' vs. 'irreparable damage'

No one may know what Trump will do, but what he wants to have happen is clear: "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER" was his demand in a post on Truth Social, using all capital letters to underscore his determination to end the Iranian nuclear threat that Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden struggled to contain.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameinei, rejected that prospect out of hand.

"The Iranian nation cannot be surrendered," said the supreme leader, who has been in power since the elder Bush, President George H.W. Bush, was in the White House more than 30 years ago. "The Americans should know that any U.S. military intervention will undoubtedly be accompanied by irreparable damage."

The question is whether Trump will deploy America's huge bunker-busting bombs against some of Iran's nuclear facilities, which are buried deep underground and are believed to have survived Israel's bombing campaign, at least so far.

But that move would draw the United States directly into the war between Iran and Israel. It could escalate the conflict and further destabilize the volatile region.

Trump has renewed his call for Iran to negotiate − or else.

"Why didn't you negotiate with me before all this death and destruction?" he demanded in comments that interrupted the raising of two new flagpoles on the north and south lawns of the White House. "Why didn't you negotiate with me two weeks ago? You could have done fine. You would have had a country."

Negotiating sessions between the United States and Iran were stopped when the Israel bombardment began a week earlier.

Was it too late?

"Nothing's too late," Trump replied. But he warned, "There's a big difference between now and a week ago."

A split in Trump's 'America First' coalition

Trump has another parallel with George W. Bush.

Bush came into office promising a "humble" foreign policy and a focus on "compassionate conservatism" at home. But his agenda was rewritten with the 9/11 terror attacks on New York and Washington just eight months into his tenure.

Trump came into office promising an "America First" foreign policy and an aversion to "stupid endless wars" in the Middle East.

Now aides have said he is "warming" to the idea of ordering U.S. forces into action, a possibility that has alarmed some of his most avid supporters. Conservative provocateur Tucker Carlson has blasted Republican "warmongers" and former Trump strategist Steve Bannon has declared that a drive to war by the "deep state" would "blow up" the Trump coalition.

Even Tulsi Gabbard, a member of Trump's Cabinet as director of National Intelligence, last week warned that "political elite and warmongers" were "carelessly fomenting fear and tensions."

"I don't care what she said," Trump told reporters when asked about her comments. "I think they were very close to having a weapon."

For Bush, the allegations of Iraq's nuclear program proved to be overblown, undercutting the main stated reason for invading. Instead of being "greeted as liberators," as then-Vice President Dick Cheney predicted, U.S. troops faced an insurgency. And while Saddam's regime was quickly beheaded, the region has had two decades of chaos and conflict since then.