Mamdani shoots up in NYC Polymarket odds after surging ahead of Cuomo in poll
The market shift came after one of the last independent polls of voters showed Mamdani winning in the city’s ranked choice voting models.
NEW YORK − A late-breaking poll shows a socialist state Assembly member shooting ahead of former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the race for the New York City Democratic mayoral primary election, and it's pulled the two candidates to near-even on betting markets.
Zohran Mamdani briefly surpassed on June 23 as frontrunner in the June 24 primary, according to Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction market headquartered in New York City.
Polymarket showed Mamdani, a 33-year-old second-term Assembly member, ahead of Cuomo in the morning in the city's unusual ranked choice voting primary election.
The market shift came after one of the last independent polls of voters showed Mamdani winning in the city’s ranked choice voting models.
The June 23 Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey showed Cuomo with 35% support in the first round, followed by Mamdani at 32%. It marked a substantial shift in Mamdani’s support in a crowded field of candidates.
The poll had respondents rank five candidates in order of preference, modeling after the ranked choice voting system. Over eight rounds of eliminating candidates with the lowest vote counts, the simulation had Mamdani beating Cuomo 52% to 48%.
The poll, conducted June 18-20 amid early voting, sampled over 830 likely voters and those who voted early, with a margin of error of 3.3%.
After its release, Cuomo returned to having slightly higher chances of winning in betting markets. It's still a dramatic shift, even from late May, when Polymarket rated Cuomo with a 91% chance of winning the mayor's race. No other candidates in the race registered more than 1%.
Most previous polls have shown Cuomo with a larger lead, around 10 percentage points, on average.
Early voting ended June 22. On June 24, polls for the primary election are open from 6 a.m. to 9 p.m.
Eduardo Cuevas is based in New York City. Reach him by email at emcuevas1@usatoday.com or on Signal at emcuevas.01.