GOP senators negotiate Trump budget bill in hopes of improving its polling
Republicans are eager to give President Donald Trump a legislative win, but as the Senate nears a vote on Trump’s signature bill, GOP negotiating over the legislation is intensifying amid warning signs it could result in political blowback.
Polling shows Trump’s legislation – which he has dubbed the “Big, Beautiful Bill” – has a big problem with public opinion, and that is looming over the debate as the Senate’s version of the legislation approaches the finish line.
Fewer than 30% of voters support the bill in three recent polls by Pew, Quinnipiac and the Washington Post-Ipsos.
Republicans are advancing a legislative package that includes tax cuts and reduced spending on social safety net programs to help pay for them, particularly the Medicaid health insurance program for the poor.
Trump is pitching the legislation as an economic booster that will ignite growth, but Democrats are spotlighting concerns it could hurt lower-income Americans to rally public opposition.
Protesters have descended on the Capitol in recent days to complain about the Medicaid cuts, which have become a big point of contention for GOP lawmakers.
A group of 16 Republican House members sent a letter to Senate Majority Leader John Thune complaining that the Senate’s version of the bill goes too far in cutting Medicaid. Some Republican senators also are raising concerns, particularly about how rural hospitals could be impacted by the proposed Medicaid changes.
“I think shutting down rural hospitals would be a big mistake,” Sen Josh Hawley, R-Missouri, told Paste BN in discussing potential political blowback to the bill.
Other Republicans say the bill doesn’t go far enough to reduce spending and are pushing for deeper cuts, putting their party's leadership in a bind. The House-passed legislation would add at least $2.4 trillion over the next 10 years.
“I think the big blowback is if we don’t do something to reduce the deficit we’ll be seen as hypocrites,” Sen. Rand Paul, R-Kentucky, told Paste BN.
The GOP wrangling over the legislation, which Senate leaders are positioning for a vote in the next few days, comes amid a string of polls showing it is deeply unpopular.
A Fox News survey released June 18 found that 59% of registered voters opposed the bill and 38% support it. The majority of Republicans (73%) back the measure, but most Independents and Democrats are opposed.
The survey found that 49% of voters believe the bill will hurt their family, 23% think it will help and 26% don’t think it will make a difference. The Washington Post-Ipsos survey found nearly twice as many voters oppose the legislation than support it.
An analysis of the House legislation released this month by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office found that the poorest households would lose about $1,600 a year under the legislation, largely because of cuts to Medicaid and food aid.
The wealthiest households would gain about $12,000 a year, according to the CBO.
“What this bill represents is the biggest transfer of wealth from the poor and the middle class to the rich in the history of the country,” Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Connecticut, said June 25 during a rally against the legislation at the Capitol.
Murphy predicted that if Republicans don’t listen to concerns about the bill “they’ll be sent back home.”
“All the data shows that the public’s against it two to one,” said Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.
It’s not just Democrats saying the legislation could be a drag on the GOP. Sen. Thom Tillis, R-North Carolina, told his GOP colleagues at a closed-door meeting June 24 that deep Medicaid cuts could result in disaster for Republicans in the midterms, according to media reports.
Major legislation has blown up on the party in power in the past. Democrats suffered big loses in 2010 after pushing through the Affordable Care Act, former President Barack Obama’s signature legislative achievement. Tillis invoked the Affordable Care Act to warn about blowback to the Senate’s Medicaid language, according to reports.
Sen. Tim Sheehy, R-Montana, said 2026 could be a tough midterm year for Republicans – but that wouldn’t be the fault of Trump’s bill.
“Whatever party’s in control historically has a challenge in the midterms,” he told Paste BN. “I don’t think it has anything to do with the big, beautiful bill. I think that just has to do with the dynamics of politics.”
Sheehy said the bill doesn’t poll well because it has “been maligned so much.”
Rep. Randy Fine, R-Florida, noted that the bill contains tax cuts that help some lower-income individuals, including eliminating taxes on tipped wages and overtime, in arguing it has been mischaracterized by Democrats.
“I’m sure that when Americans see the impact of the bill they’re going to be excited,” Fine said. “I’m just focused on putting points on the board and helping the president get his agenda done.”
Contributing: Riley Beggin