Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill "is now law: Who are the winners and losers? | The Excerpt
On a special episode (first released on July 9, 2025) of The Excerpt podcast: Paste BN Senior Congress and Campaigns Reporter Riley Beggin breaks down the signature policy changes laid out in the recently passed GOP budget.
Hit play on the player below to hear the podcast and follow along with the transcript beneath it. This transcript was automatically generated, and then edited for clarity in its current form. There may be some differences between the audio and the text.
Podcasts: True crime, in-depth interviews and more Paste BN podcasts right here
Dana Taylor:
Hello, I'm Dana Taylor, and this is a special episode of Paste BN's The Excerpt.
After a furious few weeks of debate, closed-door negotiations, open floor debate, and deal-making, the Republican-controlled legislature has finally passed a final version of President Donald Trump's budget priorities referred to by Republicans as one Big Beautiful Bill. It's likely going to be the most significant legislative accomplishment of Trump's second term. And as with most bills, this one has its winners and its losers. But make no mistake; it will impact every American one way or another. Here to help us dig into its impact on Americans is Paste BN's Senior Congress and Campaigns Reporter Riley Beggin.
Riley, I know you've logged a lot of hours following all of the developments on the hill. Thank you so much for coming on The Excerpt.
Riley Beggin:
So happy to be here.
Dana Taylor:
Let's start with one of the most discussed, some would say contentious aspects of this bill, its price tag. What does the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office say it will cost, and how might this impact the economy?
Riley Beggin:
So the latest estimates on this from the Congressional Budget Office, as you mentioned, is $3.4 trillion added to the national deficit over the next 10 years. In terms of economic impact, there are a lot of potentials here, and I will say that that is just an estimate. Things tend to change over time. There are business incentives in this bill that would boost economic output, but what the CBO has found is essentially the costs outweigh those benefits when it comes to addition to the deficit.
And when we're talking about the size of the national debt, that's a big topic. There are a lot of potential risks for that that's long term, and we're not really sure at what point it becomes a tipping point. So the long-term risk of a huge amount of national debt is a downturn in demand for Treasury Bonds, which could lead to a fall in the value of the dollar and potentially risk a global financial crisis. Of course, we are not saying that is going to happen, but that is the potential long-term risk of debt.
Dana Taylor:
Now let's get into some of the specifics. The biggest component of the bill's price tag is by far the cost of making the president's 2017 tax cuts permanent. Talk us through who the winners and losers are here.
Riley Beggin:
So this is actually something that the average American is not really going to see much change. This is extending the current income tax structure. What that means is that no American is going to see an increase in their income tax, which they would've otherwise seen if this bill did not pass because the 2017 tax cuts would have expired. But not everybody benefits in the same way. Wealthier Americans are going to benefit a little bit more than low-income Americans here. And then I will say it doesn't end taxes on social security, which is something that we've talked about in the past, but it does create a new $6,000 deduction for seniors.
So there are a bunch of other benefits in this bill, but in terms of income taxes, your taxes are going to stay the same.
Dana Taylor:
There's also a big win for Trump in accomplishing one of his key campaign promises; canceling taxes on tips and overtime. What's in the bill on this, and what are the likely impacts for Americans whose earnings fall into one or both categories?
Riley Beggin:
These are both temporary tax breaks that last through the end of President Trump's presidency, so will go through 2028. For the no tax on tips carve out, people will not have to pay for taxes on the first $25,000 of tips that they receive. We still have to pay social security and Medicare taxes, and it phases out if you make more than $150,000 a year.
A caveat I will mention here is that more than a third of tipped workers in America actually don't make enough money to pay income taxes to begin with, and in that case, they would not benefit from this tax break.
The tax break is also limited to certain professions. The way that we maybe typically think of tipped workers, waitresses and hairstylists and things like that, as a way to try to prevent people from taking advantage of this tax break who maybe aren't intended to receive it.
On the overtime front, people who are getting paid overtime can deduct up to $12,500 in overtime. Annually, it's $25,000 if you're filing jointly. And this, again, only applies to federal income taxes. So if you don't make enough money to have to pay income tax to begin with, you would not benefit from this tax credit.
Dana Taylor:
Let's talk about Medicaid and the changes to that social safety net program. This is largely how Republicans are paying for Trump's tax cuts. What are the changes they've agreed to with Medicaid and also with food assistance?
Riley Beggin:
Both of these are pretty sweeping changes. So on the Medicaid front, the biggest change, and this would be the biggest cost saving like you mentioned, is the addition of work requirements for able-bodied people without dependents. This is something that is not going to kick in until 2027, but it would save a lot of money from the program, could have huge impacts on the number of people that are eligible.
The bill will also change the way that money flows to states for Medicaid. It will require more frequent eligibility checks. A lot of new restrictions on that program for low-income people. The estimated potential hit here is 11.8 million people losing access to Medicaid over the next 10 years.
On the food stamps front, they are also making pretty significant changes. Raising the working age from 54 to 64. That's how long you have to be working to still get access to food stamps. Lowering the age exception for dependents at this point now parents with children younger than seven are exempt from the requirements, but that is different from before. And then it will also change for the first time the federal match rate requiring states to pay more for food stamps, which some experts say could impact the quality of benefits. And on that front, two million people are estimated to lose access to food stamps.
Dana Taylor:
Obamacare is another program the GOP is pairing back to cover Trump's tax cuts. How will people be impacted here?
Riley Beggin:
This bill does not extend enhanced subsidies for ACA recipients that were put in place under former President Joe Biden. That would expire at the end of the year. The impact for everyday Americans who are covered under the ACA, they would see an increase in their premiums by more than 7.5%.
Dana Taylor:
Let's talk about another line item in this bill, also known as SALT. What is it? What's in the final bill, and how will it impact Americans?
Riley Beggin:
SALT; something that people may have heard of throughout this process. It was very a contentious part of the debate in Congress. It applies mostly to people who live in high-tax states. SALT stands for State and Local Tax Deduction. Under the 2017 bill that we talked about earlier that cut income taxes.
They also put a cap on the amount that people could deduct under this provision. So they put that cap at $10,000. It became a huge part of the negotiations in Congress because there was this cohort of Republicans who represented high-tax states like New York, New Jersey, California, who wanted to bump up that cap. So they were successful, and they were able to raise the cap to $40,000 for people who make less than $500,000 a year.
Dana Taylor:
The bill has earmarked significant monies for immigration enforcement, allowing ICE to scale up. How much, and how will this money be spent?
Riley Beggin:
Yeah, I think this is going to be a huge thing that we're going to be following at Paste BN on what happens out of this bill. So it puts $170 billion into immigration enforcement over the next five years. There are earmarks in there to hire at least 10,000 new ICE agents, new CPP agents, expand detention spaces, 46 billion for construction of the wall at the southern border. This is really going to amplify and fund the president's interest in a mass deportation campaign. And I think we're going to have to sort of wait and see the implications of this funding.
Dana Taylor:
One policy shift that Democrats were particularly unhappy with in this bill is a rollback of clean energy subsidies. What are the specifics here, and what are the likely impacts?
Riley Beggin:
This was, again, one of the most controversial parts of this bill. And to sort of bring us back to the beginning here, the focus of this was a Biden era policy, the reconciliation bill that Democrats passed when they had total control of government to amp up clean energy production. So they put in a bunch of tax credits for electric vehicles, for renewable energy, like wind and solar. And essentially what this bill does is rolls back or completely eliminates most of those tax credits. It ends credits for home energy improvements, like solar and heat pumps, ends a tax credit for electric vehicles.
And in terms of impact, of course, this is going to potentially slow clean energy growth as federal subsidies dry up. And experts say could potentially increase energy costs as the diversification of energy options dwindle here.
Dana Taylor:
The 2021 temporary expansion of the Child Tax Credit passed by the Biden administration led to a historic reduction in the number of children living in poverty. Some argue it reduced poverty by up to 60%. The bill passed by the Senate and House does raise the credit a bit, but it also limits eligibility. Give us the overview of what the bill accomplishes here.
Riley Beggin:
Yeah, so like you mentioned, this does boost the Child Tax Credit by $200 from 2,000 to 2,200. The expanded Child Tax Credit that you mentioned was going to expire. So this will extend that and add a little bit to it. Like some of these other provisions that we discussed, if you have very low income, you actually can't use the whole credit, because the way that it is structured is it applies to up to 15% of your adjusted gross income until you hit $2,000, or in this case, $2,200. So what that means is if your income doesn't reach that 15% of the $2,000, you can't actually take advantage of the whole thing.
Dana Taylor:
Getting to Democrats responses, their main criticism is that the bill is a gift to wealthy Americans and will leave a lot of lower income people less well off. Is that true? What is your reporting revealed?
Riley Beggin:
It is true. Over the next 10 years according to the Nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, and this is looking at the bill as a whole, so we're talking about the tax cuts, but also some of the changes in Medicaid and SNAP, as we discussed, benefits for low-income people, what the CBO found is that resources for the poorest Americans would decrease by about 2% by 2027, and in comparison, household resources for the richest Americans would increase by about 4% in that same time period. That's mainly due to tax cuts.
And the loss in household resources is mainly due to the cuts in Medicaid and food stamps. That is reflected across the income brackets. So the poorer you are, the more likely you are to potentially lose resources under this bill.
Dana Taylor:
Riley, thank you so much for being on The Excerpt.
Riley Beggin:
Thank you for having me.
Dana Taylor:
Thanks to our senior producers, Shannon Rae Green and Kaely Monahan, for their production assistance. Our executive producer is Laura Beatty. Let us know what you think of this episode by sending a note to podcasts@usatoday.com.
Thanks for listening. I'm Dana Taylor. Taylor Wilson will be back tomorrow morning with another episode of The Excerpt.