Mass has tripled daily ICE arrests. Will Trump hit 1 million deportations annually?

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As President Donald Trump continues his mission to carry out the biggest mass deportation in history, multiple reports show how much daily immigration enforcement arrests have ballooned nationwide, and Massachusetts is no exception despite opposition from state leadership.

The administration has set its sights on deporting 1 million people annually, which would more than double the annual peak set during the Obama administration that helped earn him a critical reputation of "deporter in chief." Trump's directives to the Immigration and Customs Enforcement to expand its deportation efforts have led to widespread protests, more assaults on federal officers and multiple legal battles.

A Reuters analysis of ICE and White House data shows the national daily arrest rate has doubled under the Trump administration compared to the last decade. A New York Times analysis of obtained data shows average daily arrest rates have more than doubled in 38 states compared to the 2024 rate. In Massachusetts, they have more than tripled.

The recently passed tax and domestic policy bill allocates more funding to expand immigration enforcement and deportation efforts. The Department of Homeland Security said the $165 billion allocated in the bill would provide funding to hire 10,000 more agents and maintain detention capacity of 100,000 migrants.

While the arrest rate has increased sharply, it has yet to be seen how that might translate into deportation rates. Here is how Trump's immigration enforcement numbers look around the country:

Massachusetts sees one of greatest increases in immigration arrest rates

A New York Times analysis of data obtained by the Deportation Data Project from the University of California, Berkeley, shows how arrests have increased state by state from Trump's return to office this year until June 10.

The data shows that Massachusetts has seen one of the the greatest increases in immigration arrests with an average daily arrest rate 336% higher than in 2024. The data shows 2,230 ICE arrests have been made in the Bay State since Trump took office.

The states that have recorded the most arrests are Texas, leading at 20,150 arrests, Florida reporting 9,080 arrests and California reporting 5,860 arrests.

Comparing the average daily arrest rate to 2024's rate, those states have also increased: Texas is up 92%, Florida is up 219% and California is up 123%. But it's Idaho that has seen the sharpest increase in arrests in the country: +924%.

Here are the increases in New England:

• Connecticut: +157%
• Maine: +49%
• Massachusetts: +336%
• New Hampshire: +322%
• Rhode Island: +182%
• Vermont: +126%

As of June 15, more than 56,000 people were in ICE custody nationwide, above its funded capacity of 41,500, Reuters reported. The increase in detained people includes a sharp increase in people without criminal charges or convictions beyond the immigration violation, the Reuters analysis of ICE data shows.

Massachusetts leaders fight against ICE

Since Trump took office, Massachusetts has been home to some high profile ICE cases, like the arrest of a Milford High School student and a Tufts graduate student.

Top Massachusetts officials, including Gov. Maura Healey and Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Ed Markey, have spoken out about the efforts, and Boston Mayor Michelle Wu has made headlines for pushing back against Washington's deportation efforts.

In a Congressional hearing in March, Wu defended the city's immigration policies, touting the city's safety record and pushing back against "the false narrative" that all immigrants are criminals.

In June, Wu signed an executive order directing the city to start submitting Freedom of Information Act requests to get greater transparency from ICE on who they are arresting in Massachusetts and why.

More arrests may not mean more immediate departures

While the arrests have jumped, the deportation numbers are not yet on pace to reach a million a year, but it isn't impossible, according to Kathleen Bush-Joseph, a policy analyst at the nonpartisan Migration Policy Institute.

"If you think about each step along the way, there can be increases in particular steps, but still obstacles that are not under the control, at least the immediate control of the agencies for a variety of reasons," she said, citing the ability to send people back to their countries as an example.

She says two tools could be major factors in ramping up deportations. The first is known as 287(g) agreements, where local law enforcement works with ICE. In those cases, particularly Republican states' cooperation could create what she called a "criminal justice to deportation pipeline."

The second tool is expedited removal, which can happen in a matter of hours but was historically used at the border. As of June, 15% of those detained were processed through expedited removal, without the opportunity to defend themselves in court, up from 5% at the end of 2024, the New York Times reported.

If, for example, someone is being detained but cannot be deported to their country of origin, the previous standard was to release them with check-in mandates.

"This administration is trying to keep everyone it can detained," she said.

Funding allocated by the recent tax bill could also contribute to expedited removals and 287(g) agreements, according to Bush-Joseph.

How many people has Trump deported in this term?

The Department of Homeland Security has stopped publishing regular immigration enforcement statistics since Trump took office, Reuters reported, making the answer difficult to pin down.

The Trump administration had deported about 200,000 people over four months, border czar Tom Homan said in late May.

That is still less than the number of deportations in a similar period under President Joe Biden, which the White House credited to fewer people coming to the border.

The Biden administration deported nearly 700,000 people in fiscal year 2024, Bush-Joseph said, but the majority were those turned around upon arrival at the southern border.

A June ICE budget overview said the administration aimed to deport 1 million people per year. With encounters at the southern border at a historic low, deporting those people from the interior could be much harder, Bush-Joseph said.

"Based on how the Biden administration was able to really ramp up deportations to record-high levels, not as high as Obama, of course ... I think that they laid the groundwork for the Trump administration continuing to bolster the deportation machinery, especially with new funding," she said.

Did Obama deport more people than Trump in his first term?

By annual comparisons from their first terms, yes.

Obama had earned the critical reputation as "deporter in chief," and Trump's first term lagged behind Obama in numbers.

Throughout eight years in office, the Obama administration logged more than 3.1 million ICE deportations, according to Syracuse's Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse. The peak was fiscal year 2012, when more than 407,000 people were removed.

By comparison, the first Trump administration maxed out at deporting 269,000 people in 2019, according to the same TRAC data set. Across four years, the Trump administration recorded fewer than 932,000 deportations.

Contributing: Lauren Villagran, Bart Jansen, Aysha Bagchi, Joey Garrison, Zac Anderson, Paste BN; J. Kyle Foster, Naples Daily News

Kinsey Crowley is the Trump Connect reporter for the Paste BN Network. Reach her at kcrowley@gannett.com. Follow her on X and TikTok @kinseycrowley or Bluesky at @kinseycrowley.bsky.social.