What to know about the race to replace the late Arizona House Democrat
Voters in southern Arizona will have a good sense of who might succeed the late Rep. Raúl Grijalva – one of three septuagenarian Democrats who died while serving in Congress since the start of this year – after July 15.
The Democratic and Republican primaries on Tuesday come two months before the special election on Sept. 23. But, in the deep blue stronghold, whoever comes out on top among the handful of candidates on the left will have the general upper hand.
Adelita Grijalva, the late congressman's daughter and former member of the Pima County Board of Supervisors, is the leading contender for the Democratic nomination, in what has become a microcosm of an ongoing national debate about the future of the party.
Also in the mix in Arizona is a more moderate former intern for former Rep. Gabby Giffords, as well as a Gen-Z social media savant.
On the Republican side, three candidates face off in hopes they can defeat more than two decades of precedent.
Grijalva, a staunch progressive, champion of environmental issues and congressman of over twenty years, died in March at the age of 77 following a battle with lung cancer.
The special election to fill his seat is one of three that will be held this year to fill House vacancies prompted by the death of a congressmember, all Democrats.
Grijalva’s daughter leads three-way Democratic contest
Adelita Grijalva, 54, is the expected frontrunner leading in the special election's limited polling.
Taking up her father’s progressive mantle, Grijalva said in a debate on June 10 that his work in office “is the legacy that shaped me.”
Her campaign has garnered a slew of endorsements from prominent groups and figures, in and out of the state, including both Arizona Sens. Mark Kelly and Ruben Gallego, and fellow progressives Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York.
Her main competitors include former state legislator Daniel Hernandez, 35, who had been working for one week as an intern to Giffords when a gunman opened fire at her Tucson constituent event in 2011. Hernandez, then a 20-year-old college student, has been credited with saving Giffords’ life by rushing toward her when she was shot in the head and staunching the bleeding.
The race in Arizona is a three-way contest between Hernandez, Grijalva and 25-year-old Deja Foxx, a popular social media strategist and activist.
While Grijalva has the political establishment’s backing (and Hernandez has his own endorsements from lawmakers like New York Rep. Ritchie Torres), Foxx has attracted support from some Democratic disruptors seeking a major shift in the party.
David Hogg, activist and former co-vice chair of the Democratic Party, and his political group, Leaders We Deserve, have endorsed Foxx's grassroots campaign.
Democratic primary winner has the upper hand
Tuesday’s Democratic primary will be a good indication of who will ultimately win the seat and provide insight into voters’ hopes for the party.
Whichever Democrat comes out on top will be in the prime position to win in September, given the 7th district’s historically liberal leaning.
Three Republicans – Daniel Butierez, Jimmy Rodriguez and Jorge Rivas – hope to buck the region's longstanding tradition of going Democrat. All are businessmen with thin political resumes.
The winner of the July 15 Republican primary faces a steep general election battle, regardless of opponent.
Aid for House Democrats
Congressional Democrats are counting on a Democrat to win in southern Arizona.
The outcome of this special election will help them tighten the margin in the House and put extra pressure on Republicans, who are already working with a narrow majority.
House Speaker Mike Johnson’s intraparty tightrope was evident early in July during the passage of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tax, spending and policy legislation.
In a campaign video on July 4, the day Trump signed the bill into law, Foxx, one of Arizona's trio of Democratic candidates, said Republicans won “not because Democrats didn't fight hard enough, but because three Dem congressmen died, while in office, and handed MAGA Republicans the advantage.”
Grijalva’s death came a week after former Rep. Sylvester Turner, D-Texas, died at 70. In May, Virginia’s Rep. Gerry Connolly, 75, was the third Democrat to die in office.
A special election to replace Connolly will be held in northern Virginia on Sept. 9. Texas’ 18th Congressional District, in the Houston area, will select Turner’s successor later on Nov. 4.