Redistricting: Ohio must draw a new congressional map. Republicans hold all the cards
It's almost time to redraw Ohio's congressional map, and Republicans hold all the power to draw more GOP districts headed into competitive national midterm elections.
Republicans control every aspect of the redistricting process in Ohio. They have a supermajority in the Ohio Legislature, which gets the first opportunity to draw a new congressional map. They hold five of the seven seats on the Ohio Redistricting Commission. And they have a 6-1 advantage at the Ohio Supreme Court, which will determine whether the map complies with anti-gerrymandering rules voters approved in 2018.
And Republicans already hold two-thirds of the state's seats in Congress under the current map.
The stakes are high for Republicans: the GOP holds a narrow majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, and midterm elections are historically tough for the party that holds the White House. President Donald Trump's policies on immigration, Medicaid cuts and the "big, beautiful bill" have been polarizing.
Ohio is one of the only states redrawing its map before the 2026 elections. Texas is another. Other states could redraw their maps depending on the outcome of legal fights.
"The nation may turn its focus to Ohio because the U.S. House of Representatives is so close," Republican strategist Mark Weaver said. "It's likely that there will be at least one more Republican from Ohio in the House of Representatives come 2027 when the new Congress takes the oath. It could be two."
Asked about that pressure, a spokesperson for Speaker Matt Huffman, R-Lima, said: "The speaker is focused on delivering a durable outcome for Ohio, not on meeting external expectations."
Redrawing Ohio's map offers an opportunity for Republicans to pick up a couple of seats in a state that Trump won by 11 percentage points in 2024. Last year, voters rejected a redistricting reform measure that would have given Democrats more say in the mapmaking process. Republican Gov. Mike DeWine proposed a different approach, modeled after Iowa, but that has gone nowhere.
Ohio Democrats have little recourse to stop a GOP-drawn map, but they will make some noise about the process.
"The Republicans have this level of single-party control in the state precisely because they have drawn maps that favored themselves," said House Minority Leader Dani Isaacsohn, D-Cincinnati. "How do we break out of single-party rule? We have to end gerrymandering. In the meantime, we have to hope and hold the majority party to account that they will respect the makeup of the state."
Here's what you need to know:
Why does Ohio have to draw a new congressional map?
Ohio Republicans approved the state's current congressional map in 2021. But the map lasted only four years because no Democrats voted for it. Ohio's leaders must now draw a new map for the three next elections.
The map also faced legal challenges. In 2022, a divided Ohio Supreme Court ruled the map was unconstitutional.
Later that year, Republican leaders took the issue to the U.S. Supreme Court, which sent it back to the Ohio Supreme Court under new leadership to review. To avoid uncertainty, the map's opponents asked the court to dismiss their lawsuits.
In 2024, Ohio voters rejected a new redistricting proposal to replace elected officials with a citizen commission. Democrats blame the loss on GOP-crafted ballot language that confused voters.
"It's partisan politics that have prevented us from being able to have a fair redistricting plan," said Senate Minority Leader Nickie Antonio, D-Lakewood. "As long as you have people in positions of power who are legally allowed to lie to the people of Ohio about what they're even voting on, I don't know how we get a fair ballot measure."
What should Ohio's congressional map look like?
Ohio's current congressional delegation includes 10 Republicans and 5 Democrats.
Sen. Bernie Moreno told Punchbowl News that Republicans would probably end up with a 12-3 map that "reflects the state." That would give Republicans 80% of the congressional seats in a state where Trump won 55% of the votes.
Isaacsohn said Ohio should have six Republican districts, five Democratic ones and four tossups to match the state's partisan leanings. Antonio said she'd support the current map.
"The 5-10 map would give some representation and some voice in Congress to the people who are looking for a Democratic representative and believe that their values line up with the Democratic platform," Antonio said.
Huffman's spokesperson, in a statement, said he supports "a fair and data-driven redistricting process that accurately reflects Ohio’s political landscape and provides consistency for voters. He believes input from newly elected members of the General Assembly is essential to ensure the process is representative and forward-looking."
Senate President Rob McColley, R-Napoleon, could not be reached for comment.
Who is on the chopping block?
Republicans would love to flip the seat held by Toledo Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur, the nation's longest-serving congresswoman.
Kaptur's 9th congressional district is the most competitive in the state and, on paper, skews Republican. Trump won the district by 6.7 percentage points in 2024 as Kaptur narrowly defeated Republican challenger Derek Merrin. A libertarian candidate in the race likely pulled votes from Merrin, too.
Weaver said Kaptur was "well out of touch" with that district. "She has seen her effectiveness come and go."
Isaacsohn disagreed, saying: "They've been trying to take out Marcy Kaptur for a very long time, and so far, they keep running extremist after extremist that are totally out of touch with that district."
Before 2022, Kaptur's Democratic district stretched from Toledo to Cleveland and became known as "the snake on the lake" for its obvious gerrymander. Any change to Kaptur's current district would likely require dipping into Rep. Bob Latta's safe Republican district that surrounds Kaptur's.
Another district to watch is the Akron-based Ohio 13th held by Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes. The toss-up district, which includes Summit County and parts of Stark and Portage counties, is highly competitive. The map used before 2022 was notorious for slicing Summit County into multiple districts.
Changing the 13th could impact the balance for nearby Republican Reps. Max Miller or Dave Joyce.
If Republicans really want to push the envelope, they could go after the 1st congressional district held by Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman. That district currently stretches from Cincinnati to Warren County. Anti-gerrymandering rules require Cincinnati to be kept in one congressional district, but the race could be more competitive if the city were paired with deeper red territory.
Weaver called Landsman a "very weak incumbent" who could lose his seat if Republicans perform well in 2026.
Any changes to Landsman's district could impact GOP Rep. Warren Davidson's 8th, which includes Hamilton, Butler, Darke and portions of Miami counties. Trump threatened to primary Davidson for voting against the president's "big, beautiful bill."
Also nearby is a district held by Rep. Mike Turner, R-Dayton. Turner has disagreed with Trump on some foreign policy and was ousted as chairman of the powerful House Intelligence Committee earlier this year.
What is the deadline for approving a new congressional map?
Ohio must approve a new congressional map by Nov. 30 to use in the 2026 elections.
But there are other deadlines before that final one. Lawmakers have until Sept. 30 to pass a congressional map with support from at least three-fifths of lawmakers in each chamber and half of the Democrats. That's unlikely to happen if Republicans choose to increase their majority in Congress.
Then, the Ohio Redistricting Commission has until Oct. 31 to pass a map with bipartisan support. That commission includes three Republican statewide officials, two Republican lawmakers and two Democratic lawmakers.
The pen returns to lawmakers, who can approve a map with support from three-fifths of members and one-third of Democrats on board.
The final option is for the Ohio Legislature to pass a map without any Democratic support. If Republicans take that route, they must follow some rules: they cannot "unduly" favor a political party or incumbents or "unduly" split counties, townships and municipalities.
Any map approved by lawmakers will be sent to DeWine for his signature or veto.
What are the rules for drawing Ohio's new map?
Ohio voters approved lawmakers' anti-gerrymandering rules in 2018. These rules require districts to be compact, contiguous and in compliance with federal laws protecting against racial gerrymandering.
Cleveland and Cincinnati could not be divided into multiple congressional districts because of rules limiting splits to cities in counties that exceed the population of a congressional district.
Columbus can be divided because its population (about 933,000 residents) exceeds the number of people in a congressional district (about 792,000 people). A "significant portion" of Columbus must be kept in the same district, which is currently the 3rd, represented by Democratic Rep. Joyce Beatty.
The Ohio Supreme Court, where Republicans hold a 6-1 majority, will interpret whether the map violates any of the anti-gerrymandering rules. Democrats are pessimistic that the Ohio Supreme Court will rein in fellow Republicans.
"They've (Republicans) been willing to put forward unconstitutional maps for the last four years," Isaacsohn said. "I don't see what stops them now."
This article has been updated to correct when cities may be divided in redistricting.
State government reporter Jessie Balmert can be reached at jbalmert@gannett.com or @jbalmert on X.