Governor races are set to be major referendums on Trump vs. Democrats

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Forget who controls Congress, consider how the nation’s gubernatorial election cycle over the next 16 months will be chock-full of significant implications for the country’s political future.

There will be at least nine tightly contested elections, starting with sprints in New Jersey and Virignia this fall, that will either strengthen or weaken President Donald Trump's agenda, and show if the Democratic Party has gotten its groove back with voters.

Plenty of potential 2028 presidential contenders, such as JB Pritzker of Illinois and Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, are looking to secure new terms that will keep their national profiles high. Similarly outgoing governors with White House aspirations − think Florida's Ron DeSantis − who will need their party to hold power less their own presidential narratives be crushed.

And then there’s the potential return of Kamala Harris, who could end up controlling the globe's fourth-largest economy while on a collision course with her 2024 rival.

From California to Wisconsin to Virginia to Arizona, more than three-dozen states will choose governors who are going to be at the frontlines of a divided nation amid Trump's controversial upheaval in Washington that has touched various economic, cultural and institutional nerves since January.

Whether that's absorbing the fallout of the “one, big beautiful bill" and its changes to Medicaid or other assistance programs, resisting or assisting the Trump administration's expanding immigration crackdown that has seen tense, sometimes violent clashes in the streets or dealing with the massive federal worker layoffs, here are the governor races worth watching − and why.

Trump set to be 'major factor' in early Virginia, N.J. races this fall

Both parties are hoping to flip the governor's mansion in the odd-year races in Virginia and New Jersey in 2025, which are leaning slightly in Democrats' favor, according to Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report, which forecast elections.

In Virginia, where Republican incumbent Glenn Youngkin is term-limited, reports underscore the GOP is a bit nervous about Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears given her anemic fundraising hauls and internal campaign combustion that one conservative talk radio host described as a "clown car."

A July 16 Virginia Commonwealth University poll showed Earle-Sears trailing the Democratic nominee, former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, by a 12-point margin among registered voters.

That is giving Democrats a confidence boost as they plan to focus on affordability and economic issues, but particularly the impact of the Trump administration’s cuts to the federal workforce. Virginia is home to about 152,300 federal workers.

Democratic incumbent Phil Murphy is also term-limited in New Jersey, where Republican Jack Ciattarelli looks to put his past Trump criticisms in the rearview and bulldoze his right-leaning populist over Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill.

Ciatterelli, who the president has endorsed, came within 3 percentage points of winning the governorship in 2021 when he kept Trump at arm's length. This time around his firebrand style is something GOP strategists are confident can keep Democrats on defense in a blue state.

A Rutgers-Eagleton Poll released July 2 showed their is high enthusiasm for both candidates, but that at the moment Sherrill holds the advantage with 51% of voters saying they cast their ballot for her compared to 31% saying the same for Ciattarelli.

Other surveys have the election closer, but what's telling in the Rutgers poll is how large Trump shadow looms with 52% of voters saying the president is a "major factor" in their decisions for governor versus 30% who say he isn’t a factor at all.

Swing states governors race a test of Trump policies, Dems messaging

Most of next year's gubernatorial races will be centered on the six swing states, of which four are currently controlled by Democrats and two by Republicans.

Trump won all of them in the 2024 presidential race, and he is expected to play a significant role whether as an asset or liability for GOP contenders.

"I look forward to working with each and every one of you as we complete the mission of saving America," he told the Republican Governors Association in February.

"We've made a lot of progress... we've had a lot of fun doing it, too" the president added. "We just rip down whatever (Democrats have) done."

Political forecasters give Democrats and Republicans a relatively even chance at prevailing in five of the six battleground gubernatorial races. Only in Pennsylvania, where incumbent Gov. Josh Shapiro, a 2028 hopeful, is expected to announce his reelection bid soon do Democrats hold an expected edge.

Incumbents are expected to face stiff challenges in Arizona and Nevada, and the open races in Wisconsin, Michigan and Georgia are still taking shape as different candidates emerge.

After weeks of public debate, largely about his age, Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers bowed out of seeking a third term in next year's gubernatorial race, leaving a critical seat open in a swing state Democrats would have preferred to be a safer bet.

There's now expected to be a crowded primary that will provide a window into how Democrats have settled on crafting a tougher messaging strategy going into the midterm elections. Democratic Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, for instance, entered Wisconsin governor's race on July 25 by calling Trump a "maniac" in her campaign launch video.

"His tariffs are killing our farmers," she said in the video.

Supporters emphasize Rodriguez, who is looking to be the state's first woman governor, is running with an emphasis on lowering costs, helping businesses and workers thrive and improving child access to early education.

"(Democrats) should still have a decent chance to hold it in context of 2026, but incumbency is still valuable in (governor) races, so there's added variability now," Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said in a July 24 post on X.

The Democratic brand is likely to see its biggest test in Arizona. No current governor is considered more vulnerable than Democrat Katie Hobbs, who many believe will see a tough reelection bid after a razor-thin victory against Republican Kari Lake in 2022.

Unlike other Democratic governors, Hobbs, a former social worker and secretary of state, has kept with her low-profile approach this year which has aggravated the political left on certain issues, such as standing up against Trump on immigration.

A breakdown on the left could give the GOP an opening in the Grand Canyon State, if they can minimize the damage from next year's Republican primary that is expected to be contentious featuring two Trump-backed two contenders in Rep. Andy Biggs, a populist-minded member of the House Freedom Caucus, and developer Karrin Taylor Robson, who saw former Trump advisors leave her campaign earlier this year.

Democrats are also hoping that diving into unpopular parts of Trump's mega-bill can win back Nevada where Republican incumbent Joe Lombardo had an upset win in 2022.

When the Republican Governors Association, for example, showcased almost two-dozen governors were offering "strong support" for the mega-bill, Lombardo, a former sheriff, didn't sign the letter.

Shake up from the Trump administration's signature legislative achievement means hundreds of thousands will be tossed off Medicaid and food assistance programs. That will give Republicans a difficult balancing act of selling the president's wins, such as extending tax breaks to tipped workers, while absorbing Democratic attacks.

Republicans will also have to play defense in Georgia, where the immensely popular incumbent Brian Kemp is term limited. He comfortably defeated Democrat Stacy Abrams in back-to-back contests.

But the Peach State has a purple hue and if the GOP picks a lightning rod nominee, such as Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a MAGA darling who has flirted with the idea, the election could become a national focal point. At least four other Democrats have signed up, including former Atlanta mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, who worked in the Biden administration but many are still speculating if Abrams will take a third bite.

That tension underscores how Democrats have their own problems as many remain skittish about their party's health due to an emerging left-leaning populism that appears to be taking hold amid ongoing frustrations with the party establishment.

That is on full display in the Michigan governor's race, where popular incumbent Gretchen Whitmer is term limited, and Democrats are expected to have a heated primary. The beginning narrative came from Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, who made headlines when he decided to ditch the Democratic Party and run as an independent for governor further underscoring the party's woes.

His campaign announced on July 25 an impressive $3.2 million fundraising haul in the past six months, which almost matches the $3.5 million raised by Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, a Democrat, who is considered the big dog in the Democratic primary.

"We're feeling the momentum," Duggan said in a statement.

Don't forget outlier contests and Harris' possible return in California

One feature of the 2026 gubernatorial races could be the return of Kamala Harris to the national stage, as the former vice president continues to contemplate a run for California governor.

Doing so would put Harris right back in the fight and a major figure in the resistance movement against Trump, particularly on immigration. The former VP hasn't announced, but a University of California, Irvine released this month shows 41% of voters in the Golden State would choose her over a generic Republican.

There are already big names, including former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter, former Health Secretary Xavier Becerra and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, but the bombshell everyone is bracing for is Harris' return bid whether for California governor or a third run at U.S. president.

"Things are hard right now," she said in a July 4 post on X. "They are probably going to get worse before they get better. But I love our country — and when you love something, you fight for it. Together, we will continue to fight for the ideals of our nation."

There's a similar compelling narrative in Florida, where Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, a probably 2028 contender, is term-limited but might be gearing up for proxy intra-party spat with Trump.

A July 24 survey by the University of North Florida shows Casey DeSantis holding a slight edge over Rep. Byron Donalds, who is endorsed by the president. Other polls, however, have given Donalds a better lead over Casey DeSantis, who has remained cryptic about running, in such a hypothetical matchup.

Democratic and Republican operatives with knowledge of the larger strategies going into next year's races for governor tell Paste BN they believe there are chances for picks outside the swing states, too.

For Republicans the easiest chance for a flip in their eyes looks to be Kansas, where incumbent Laura Kelly, who is term-limited, is one of the last red state Democrats in the country. Forecasters rate that contest as leaning for the GOP and at least eight contenders, including former Kansas Gov. Jeff Colyer.

Conservative operatives also grin when asked about New York, which is at the moment considered a "likely" Democratic hold by Gov. Kathy Hochul. 

But Republicans are holding out hope that Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., a Trump confidant, will join the fray and make that contest more competitive.

"I will make a final decision and announcement after this year’s November election which we are all focused on," Stefanik said in a July 23 statement after Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., announced he will seek re-election instead of running for governor.

Outside of Virginia, there is a small chatter of hope among Democrats when broached about flipping an open seat in Iowa after GOP incumbent Kim Reynolds passed on another term earlier this year. State Auditor Rob Sand, the only statewide Democratic official, has entered the race.

The prediction there doesn't look good as multiple Republicans have signaled they're running in the Hawkeye State, which is rated as either "leaning" or "likely" for the GOP to keep.