Walker faces tough campaign before eyeing White House

MARATHON CITY, Wis. — As Gov. Scott Walker took a break here during a recent motorcycle ride across western Wisconsin to promote his re-election effort, two men stopped to wish him luck and ask him about his ambitions for an even bigger job.

"You give any thought to a run for another office?" asked Justin Thompson, 33, of Chippewa Falls, alluding to a potential Walker run at the White House.

Walker, a Republican, responded that he is squarely focused on winning another four-year term as governor. Besides, Walker joked, he'd never be able to ride his beloved Harley-Davidson if he ended up in "another office."

While Walker may end up a presidential contender for 2016, first he must make it through one of the tightest gubernatorial races in the country against Democrat Mary Burke, a businesswoman and former state Commerce secretary.

Walker has seen his fair share of tough races. But even after beating Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett by nearly 6 percentage points in 2010 and staving off a 2012 recall effort by a slightly larger margin, this might be Walker's toughest contest yet.

"This is one of the premier races in the United States," said Joe Heim, a political scientist at the University of Wisconsin-LaCrosse. "It's got ramifications in terms of the 2016 election. If Governor Walker pulls off an impressive victory ... that's a real positive sign for his potential candidacy."

But victory is far from certain for the first-term governor.

Walker led 47.5% to 44.1% among registered voters in a Marquette Law School poll released in late August. Burke, however, held a 2-point lead among likely voters, those who say they are certain to vote. The latest Marquette survey tracks with months of polling that has shown the race to be a tossup.

Walker has been a polarizing figure in the Badger State since ushering in legislation known as Act 10, which ended collective bargaining for most state employees and spurred an effort to oust the governor in a recall.

He said he expected all along that winning re-election would be a tough battle in a state that hasn't backed a Republican presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan won the state in 1984.

"I have thought that any credible Democrat would have about 47%, 48% of the vote," Walker said. "Some people — even some of my supporters — misread into the results of the recall. Remember, two years ago there were a fair number of people who voted against the recall just based on principle."

Burke, who made her fortune as an executive with her family's Trek Bicycle Corp. and is the state's first female gubernatorial candidate for a major party, has centered her campaign on Walker falling short of a 2010 campaign pledge to create 250,000 jobs by the end of his first term. Walker is less than halfway to the goal.

The governor has also faced allegations that he illegally coordinated spending with independent political groups. A federal judge stopped an investigation in May, and the U.S. 7th Circuit Court of Appeals in Chicago is weighing a prosecutors' appeal to allow them to restart their probe. It's unclear whether the 7th Circuit will rule before the Nov. 4 election.

While that investigation has been an irritant to Walker, it's been overshadowed by the fight over jobs with Burke as he seeks a second term and potentially looks toward a 2016 White House run.

The state's unemployment rate stands at 5.8% — below the national rate of 6.1%. But Wisconsin workers have been dogged by low income growth and lackluster consumer spending.

Burke also emphasizes the fact that Wisconsin is ranked last among Midwest states for job growth between last quarter of 2010 — the period just before Walker took office — and 2013.

The governor has pushed back by noting that Wisconsin has added 36,000 private sector jobs in the last year. That's the third-highest growth rate in Midwest for the period and signals what Walker calls the "Wisconsin comeback."

Republicans have also sought to frame a potential Burke administration as a third term of Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle, who left office in 2010. And the governor has criticized Burke for supporting a hike property taxes in Madison, where she sits on the school board.

"The reality is she is a Madison liberal who is completely beholden to the big government unions," Walker said.

Walker has argued that Burke, who served as Doyle's Commerce secretary from 2005 to 2007, helped implement policies that resulted in the state losing 133,000 jobs during the Doyle's second term.

Those job losses, however, occurred when the entire country was bleeding more than 8 million jobs during the Great Recession.

Burke has sought to highlight her business background as she tries to differentiate herself from Doyle and Walker, who made his first run for the Wisconsin State Assembly when he was 22. Wisconsin voters in the latest Marquette poll said by a 59%-27% margin that business experience was a more important qualification for a governor to have than political experience.

"It's business experience that shapes the approach I take that is largely different than someone that has spent their career in politics," Burke said.

Early in her run, many Democrats were lukewarm to her candidacy and some wondered whether Burke was up to the task of taking on Walker. Her pro-business outlook didn't sit well with some Democrats, nor did her support of some provisions of Walker's controversial Act 10.

But as November approaches, those base voters — whose turnout will play a key role in determining Burke's fate — are perking up.

"She's grown on me," said Julilly Kohler, 72, after meeting the candidate at a women's economic forum in Milwaukee. "She's showing she's got ideas on how to change things. And that is so important in getting beyond the 'I'm-so-tired of Walker' feeling and actually getting him out of office."