GOP appears back on track in South Dakota

National Republicans appear to be salvaging the South Dakota Senate race following concerns that their candidate was on the verge of losing a sure thing in the GOP's push for a majority.

Republican candidate Mike Rounds, the state's former governor, had been fading in polls released earlier in October. Rounds is one of four candidates in the contest, which features Democrat Rick Weiland and two independents: former Republican senator Larry Pressler and Gordon Howie, a former state lawmaker.

But the arrival of help from South Dakota Sen. John Thune, a fellow Republican, and the National Republican Senatorial Committee appears to have stabilized the Rounds campaign. An Argus Leader Media/KELO-TV poll released Monday shows 42% of respondents support Rounds over Weiland's 33%. Pressler had 13% and Howie 2%.

"Now, everything is back to normal," said Emily Wanless, a professor of government at Augustana College in Sioux Falls.

The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. It was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research between Oct. 20 and Oct. 23.

That period marked a turning point in the campaign. Prior to that, Rounds, a former two-term governor, was faltering in his bid to take the seat held by retiring Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson. Two October polls showed Rounds with only 3% and 4% leads in the race. His campaign refused to go negative and his advertising lacked substance, Wanless said.

But national Republicans countered the slide with ads that contrasted Rounds with Weiland and Pressler, a three-term senator who lost to Johnson in 1996. Those ads tied Pressler and Weiland to President Obama, who is unpopular in South Dakota.

"Just the presence of the national committees getting involved really was a wake-up call — that this race wasn't a foregone conclusion," Wanless said.

Thune helped by sending staff and money to the campaign. And Thune, who is popular among Republicans in South Dakota, cut an ad and plans to campaign with Rounds in an attempt to win back Republicans who might have soured on Rounds.

"This November you can make South Dakota's voice in Washington even stronger by electing Mike Rounds to join me in the South Dakota Senate," Thune says in the ad.

A Republican loss in South Dakota would have been unthinkable in September. But state Democrats and Democratic-leaning super PACs have battered Rounds in a wave of attack ads tying him to a federal investigation of an economic development program that he championed as governor.

"I think everybody thought it was in the bag, that they could phone it in," said Ken Blanchard, a political science professor at Northern State University in Aberdeen. "I think without this scandal, that's probably true."

Rounds' troubles center on the EB-5 Immigrant Investor Program, a federal program that enables wealthy foreigners to get green cards for investing as little as $500,000 into qualified economic development projects. During Rounds' two tours as governor between 2003 and 2011, the state was aggressive in using the program to generate money for a host of projects, including dairies, energy projects and a casino.

Rounds' former secretary of tourism and economic development, Richard Benda, committed suicide in October 2013; shortly after his death, the public learned that both state and federal officials were investigating the state's EB-5 program, and that Benda, who had overseen the program under Rounds, was a target of that investigation.

The state investigation ended with Benda's death, and there were no others charged. But last week Kyle Loven, the chief division counsel for the FBI's Minneapolis division, said the federal investigation into the state's EB-5 program is still active.

For Democrats, the scandal gave them an opening in a state where registered Republicans outnumber them by more than 64,000 voters. They have unleashed almost daily attacks against Rounds, questioning his management and ties to the EB-5 program. In early October, Democrats sensed an opportunity emerging in South Dakota and Senate Democrats' campaign arm announced plans to spend a million dollars in the state.

The scandal, Blanchard said, is complex, and it's hard for most people to understand. Rounds has not been implicated directly in any wrongdoing, but, Blanchard said, "It might be a guilt by association thing."

Joel Rosenthal, a former state GOP chairman, said Democrats have been hoping for a year that an investigation would find a "smoking gun" that implicated Rounds in wrongdoing. That hasn't happened.

"They're willing to do anything to create some excitement," Rosenthal said. "I don't think, at the end of the day, anything's moved very much."

Ellis also reports for the Argus Leader in Sioux Falls, S.D.