Christie's path to White House strewn with doubts
ASBURY PARK, N.J. — Election Day 2016 — Nov. 8, 2016 to be exact — is 661 days away.
That may seem like a long time, but within that span eight years ago, Barack Obama went from being a first term Illinois senator to president of the United States. If Chris Christie wants to become the first New Jersey governor since Woodrow Wilson to occupy the Oval Office, he will have to navigate a winding path wrought with so many pot holes and detours it could pass for some of the state's roads.
Whether it is his sometimes outspoken personality, questions about the George Washington Bridge scandal or his appeal to the ultra-conservative faction of the Republican Party, Christie will be challenged to erase a number of doubts.
"Christie tends to stand out because he attracts extreme opinions," said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, West Long Branch. "You either love him or hate him."
When a group of national GOP voters was asked who they would want to see run for the high office, a Monmouth University poll last month found that Christie bunched at the top with a number of potential GOP contenders, including Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush, Rand Paul and Ben Carson. Romney topped the list at 8 percent. Christie tied with Carson — who has never run for political office — at 7 percent.
Among those who identified as Tea Party supporters in the Monmouth poll, the top choices were Carson, Ted Cruz and Romney. Christie was nowhere to be seen.
"The Tea Party is willing to accept certain folks and not others, and Chris Christie is one of those people they don't seem to be willing to change their minds about," Murray said. "For many of them, that hug with President Obama (after Superstorm Sandy) was all they needed to know about him."
The Tea Party voters' complaint with Christie mirrors the challenge that dogged former Massachusetts Gov. Romney's two prior presidential runs: He isn't conservative enough.
"Certainly Democrats and many independents don't see Chris Christie as being too moderate, but that is how conservative Republicans in the base see Chris Christie," said Larry Sabato, the director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. "It's not that they hate him, it's just that in the Republican primaries, they have better choices. They have candidates who check all of the boxes."
A fresh face with a questionable attitude
Brenden Cusack, a self-described "liberal independent" from Atlantic Highlands, said he is looking for a candidate who is willing to cross party lines, even where doing so means angering one's own partisans. He said he hasn't seen that in Christie. Moreover, he says the governor's demeanor is not going to win over many independents.
"He tends to play favorites and if you get on his bad side — even if you're trying to do good by your constituents, he seems to hold personal grudges," Cusack said.
If Christie stays away from "sit down and shut up" moments along the campaign trail, he could clear a major hurdle. Other New Jersey residents wonder how his attitude will play in parts of the nation that are not used to his style.
"I'd be very interested to see what voters in Florida or South Carolina or Wisconsin would think of our governor," said Eric Seldner of Eatontown. "He's a stereotype of New Jersey, with a very brash attitude."
Christie has been blunt and abrasive toward critics and members of the media. His temperament might not endear him with Democrats or those who wave the Tea Party flag. But the governor's in-your-face style is viewed as a strength by some of his GOP supporters.
"It takes a strong personality to become governor and to get things done," Republican Assemblyman Declan O'Scanlon said. "When you extrapolate that to being president, it's the same thing if not more. There's no question that Governor Christie is a very forceful, in-your-face person and I find that to be refreshing."
Familiar faces could spread the wealth
Perhaps the biggest threat to a Christie run is from former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, a favorite among the GOP establishment. Bush has already said that he will "actively explore the possibility" of a presidential run.
"The thing that Jeb Bush seems to have going for him that Chris Christie doesn't is that he's winning the 'invisible primary,' " Murray said, "that's the primary that takes place among Republican donors and the party leadership down in Washington."
The Bush name still carries plenty of weight in the GOP, including in segments of the party that don't fully trust Christie. Another campaign from Romney, the 2012 Republican nominee, could also cost Christie among moderate GOP voters.
"The donor class wants dependability and reliability," Sabato said. "They think they know exactly what the Bushes are going to do. They've had 12 years under them and they've had wonderful relationships with the donor class."
What could be a wild card in Christie's presidential quest are the lingering issues from the George Washington Bridge scandal, Murray said. While there is little sign the scandal has captured the imagination of GOP voters nationally, that could change.
"Right now, people see this as a political witch hunt launched by the Democrats," Murray said.
Christie will have ample opportunity to address these concerns, and untold others not yet on the political radar, in the many months ahead. The challenges and questions at times seem never-ending.
"We'll have to see if ultimately (Christie's personality) sells, but I think it can sell in a big way," O'Scanlon said. "I will not deny at all that Governor Christie is aggressive and bold, but I think those will be assets for him going forward."