Kasich tries to emerge as establishment choice with combative approach
BOULDER, Colo. — What is it going to take to beat Donald Trump and Ben Carson?
The question has reverberated through GOP establishment circles for months, without an answer in sight. This week, Ohio Gov. John Kasich took his shot, throwing up his hands and calling their proposals “crazy.” At the opening of Wednesday’s Republican debate he railed against the political outsiders’ ideas.
“Folks, we gotta wake up,” he pleaded. “We cannot elect somebody that doesn't know how to do the job.”
With the tactic, aimed squarely at New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary voters — many of whom are more moderate than those in other early voting states — Kasich hopes to emerge as the establishment GOP candidate of choice.
But Kasich’s approach carries risks. Chief among them: Many Republican voters don’t think of themselves as “mainstream” any more, and polls have shown a growing number prefer an outsider candidate. On Wednesday night, Trump and Carson largely stuck together – furthering the divide between their candidacy and that of the race’s current and former officeholders.
Not every candidate with mainstream appeal is following Kasich's lead. Marco Rubio is using his youth and immigrant family history to avoid the “establishment” label, while knowing those GOP voters likely have him on their list. Chris Christie may be employing a similar “truth-teller” approach as Kasich, but on Wednesday he focused more on challenging CNBC moderators than his opponents. Jeb Bush, meanwhile, is trying to bounce back after a widely panned debate performance that included a jab at Rubio that fell flat.
Kasich's approach reflects much of what he’s heard in town-hall meetings in New Hampshire. On a recent four-day swing through the Granite State, some voters praised his qualifications, while asking him how he could stop Trump.
“He’s trying to be the adult in the room. So why not just go for broke on it?” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor for Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball political forecasting newsletter.
Still, a strategy tailored to winning New Hampshire’s moderate Republicans could backfire in other primaries, said University of New Hampshire political scientist Dante Scala.
“When you behave in an exasperated way toward, say, Carson, toward Trump, toward the so-called crazies, you’re also implicating a fair number of Republican primary voters, who actually think that Trump and Carson have something to say,” Scala said.
Indeed, some Republicans approached after the debate at the University of Colorado Boulder took issue with the notion of being considered establishment GOPers.
“I don’t consider myself an establishment Republican, and I don’t think most voters do,” said Jimmy Kemp, son of the late New York congressman Jack Kemp, who was Bob Dole’s running mate in 1996. Still, Kemp said: “We shouldn’t get distracted by the side shows. We should really dig into the policy. I do think that, over time, when people step into that voting booth, I think people will make the right choice.”
At the debate Wednesday, Rubio blamed “establishment Republicans” for wanting him to “wait in line.”
“Wait for what? This country is running out of time” he said, before appealing to his background.
“Rubio is kind of making this about Rubio,” said GOP consultant John Feehery. “Kasich was aiming more at the fantasies being spun by his opponents. The problem for Kasich is the Republican base is in a different moment.”
Still, the stumble by Bush leaves an opening for Kasich. In the end, GOP observers agreed: Kasich should stick with the strategy, because it just might work.
“Kasich is a good communicator, he’s got a good track record, he’s just got to stick with it and see what happens,” Feehery said. “If he can stick in there, he can be the last establishment man standing.”
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