For outsider Trump, VP pick could be all about insiders
WASHINGTON — A presidential nominee's first major decision — picking a running mate — becomes even more important when the candidate is a self-proclaimed "outsider."
Someone like Donald Trump.
Indications are that, like governors and other non-Washington politicians who have won previous presidential nominations, Trump will likely pick a D.C. "insider" — perhaps a senator or House member — who can help him move legislation through Congress.
"I think I'll probably go the political route," Trump said this month on MSNBC's Morning Joe. "Somebody that can help me with legislation and somebody that can help me get things passed and somebody that's been friends with the senators and the congressman and all."
So far, the speculation (another vice presidential tradition) includes Republican senators like Rob Portman of Ohio, Joni Ernst of Iowa and longtime Trump supporter Jeff Sessions of Alabama — assuming any of them are willing to accept a Trump offer, another issue hanging over the businessman's search for a running mate.
"Trump should go with somebody who actually has some political experience," said David Cohen, a political science professor at the University of Akron who has studied White House staffing.
He added, however, "that doesn't mean he will do it."
Trump, who rewrote the political playbook in his Republican primary wins, may double up with a fellow outsider. That theory has led to speculation about former campaign rival and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson or former Alaska governor Sarah Palin, the GOP's 2008 vice presidential nominee.
Trump himself has complimented a current and former state chief executive: Gov. Mary Fallin of Oklahoma and former governor Jan Brewer of Arizona. A former campaign rival, former Texas governor Rick Perry, has indicated a willingness to run with Trump. There's also the possibility of one of Trump's first high-profile endorsers, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.
The businessman could also split the difference by picking an outsider who used to serve in the federal government, such as former House speaker Newt Gingrich.
The stakes of the vice presidential selection may be greater for Trump given his lack of elective office experience.
"The pattern has been that people who are Washington outsiders always pick D.C. insiders," said Joel Goldstein, author of The White House Vice Presidency: The Path to Significance, Mondale to Biden.
Goldstein, a professor of law at Saint Louis University, noted that major party tickets have had at least one person with Washington experience since 1948. That was the year the Republicans nominated Govs. Thomas Dewey of New York and Earl Warren of California, a ticket that lost in an upset to President Harry Truman and running mate Alben Barkley.
The last major party nominee without office-holding experience, retired Gen. Dwight Eisenhower, picked a senator for his running mate in 1952, 39-year-old Richard Nixon. The last business person with no political experience to lead a major-party ticket , Republican Wendell Willkie in 1940, went with Senate GOP leader Charles McNary.
Ronald Reagan, who campaigned as a Washington outsider despite his two terms as governor of California, flirted with picking former president Gerald Ford as his running mate in 1980. He wound up picking a consummate insider: former congressman, Republican Party chairman, United Nations ambassador and CIA director George H.W. Bush, who was the runner-up in the nomination battle that year.
As he assesses his options in 2016, Trump faces a unique complication: Some high-profile Republicans are reluctant to support him, much less become his running mate. House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., the party's vice presidential nominee in 2012, is among those who have, so far, withheld a formal endorsement of the New York businessman.
That's why another traditional pool of running mates — candidates who were among the finalists for the nomination — seems less likely to figure into the 2016 GOP veepstakes. Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and John Kasich have had few kinds things to say about their party's new standard-bearer in the days since Trump locked up the nomination, a byproduct of the particularly personal and negative GOP campaign.
Like presidential nominees before him, Trump will be looking for a partner who can compensate for some of his political weaknesses. In addition to his lack of experience in public office, he has low poll ratings with women and Hispanics, and many members of the Republican establishment remain suspicious.
"There's not one pick who can cover everything," Goldstein said. "And that's often the case."
In the end, running mates may not make that much difference. Jody C. Baumgartner, a political science professor at East Carolina University, cited the traditional rule for running mates: Do no harm.
While Trump has run as an outsider, "he's going to need to back track now and balance it with some insider experience," said Baumgartner, the author of The American Vice Presidency: From the Shadow to the Spotlight. "It's virtually impossible to head into a general election with another outsider ... I think he's going to stay away from governors, too."
Trump himself hasn't been very specific about potential running mates, and the speculation is likely to continue for two months, right up to the party convention that starts July 18 in Cleveland.
"I have a list of about five or six and possibly expanding," Trump told NBC's Today show recently. "I'll make the decision by the convention and probably announce it during the convention."