Poll: What should candidates talk about to Iowans?
DES MOINES — Likely Democratic and Republican caucusgoers expect vastly different talking points from their presidential candidates, a new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll shows.
Republican poll respondents are seeking discussion of fiscal and defense matters. Ninety percent or higher say they want candidates to spend "a lot" of time talking about the budget deficit, national defense, taxes and terrorist groups such as the Islamic State, or ISIL.
"The U.S. looks like a weak power to all these foreign countries," Republican poll respondent Grant Wells said in a follow-up interview. "These new candidates need to lay out how they're going to handle that. No one wants to overstep, but we need to clean things up."
Democrats, conversely, are far more interested in hearing about domestic policy. Energy (92%) and income inequality (90%) top the list of issues that Democrats say candidates should spend a lot of time discussing. National infrastructure and job creation also rate highly.
"Domestically, we'd better start taking care of some things here or we're going to be more insecure as a nation than we are now," said Midge Gaylor, a Democrat and retired teacher from Mason City who participated in the poll.
Just one issue ranks in the top five for likely caucus attendees from both parties: job creation.
The issue divide illustrates a fundamental disagreement between the parties over the role of government, said Jeff Manza, a professor of sociology at New York University who has written extensively on politics and public opinion.
While Democrats believe government can and should address social and economic issues, Republicans are less confident about its ability to solve such problems and focus instead on limiting taxes and spending while maintaining national defense.
"The underlying difference right now between the policy agendas of elites at the top — which has increasingly filtered down into minds of ordinary citizens — is a fundamental disagreement about the role of government in the modern world," Manza said.
The Iowa Poll shows the extent to which the priorities of national party leaders have informed likely caucusgoers' political sentiments heading into 2016, he said.
"What you're seeing in the Iowa data here is simply a reflection of the agendas of the leadership," Manza said. "It's the voters following the leaders — the rhetoric of the leaders and the policy priorities of the leaders."
The poll, conducted May 25-29 by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points for Republican respondents and 4.7 percentage points for Democrats.
Especially wide divergences emerge on a few issues.
Ninety percent of Democrats say they want to hear candidates talk about income inequality — making it the No. 2 issue among the party's likely caucusgoers. For likely Republican caucusgoers, though, income inequality ranks 19th out of the 20 issues tested by the poll, with 36% of respondents saying they wish candidates would devote a lot of time talking about it.
"It's one of the top problems in America today, and it's a problem that affects all of us," Democratic respondent Jeremy Knipper said of income inequality. He's a small-business executive from Waukee. "I think that in a lot of ways, the ability to achieve the American dream is a bit of a sham these days."
But Wells, a 29-year-old business owner from Fonda, in northwest Iowa, said he believes income, wealth and economic success depend on individual initiative and that government intervention is unnecessary to address inequality.
"America doesn't hold you back. It doesn't hold you hostage. No one owes you nothing, and no one's giving you nothing," Wells said. "Go out and make yourself better. Don't expect the government to do it for you. To me, (income inequality) is not a big issue."
An even wider gap between Democrats and Republicans is evident on climate change. While 81% of Democrats planning to caucus say they want to see candidates focus on it, just 18% of likely Republican caucusgoers are interested in hearing a lot about the issue.
There are areas, too, where the interests of likely caucus attendees from the two parties are more aligned — at least as far as wanting candidates to address an issue.
An equal percentage of Democratic and Republican respondents (86%) say candidates should talk about job creation. They also closely align on the importance of discussing immigration (85% for Republicans, 82% for Democrats) and international trade (81% for Republicans, 77% for Democrats). Smaller but similar percentages want candidates to talk about gun issues (Republicans, 57%, and Democrats, 56%).
For many of these issues, however, the solutions or approaches Democratic and Republican caucusgoers want to hear may be far different.
Social issues low on Iowa GOP list
Turns out caucusgoing Iowa Republicans don't want to hear their candidates talk a lot about hot-button social issues on the campaign trail this year.
Just 48% of GOP respondents say they want candidates to spend a lot of time talking about abortion — ranking it 15th of 20 issues tested in the latest Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll. Same-sex marriage rates even lower. Just 38% of likely GOP caucusgoers want candidates to devote much time to the issue.
"The Republican caucuses have a reputation for attracting a core from the religious right, but these data actually demonstrate that the issues most closely tied to that constituency are among the least important," pollster J. Ann Selzer said. "Really, the issues Iowans want to hear about most are the same as the rest of the nation."
Judy Heath, 63, a hair stylist and artist in Bettendorf who's a Republican, said in a later interview that the country simply has more pressing matters to address.
"It's not of great interest to me at all whether someone has an abortion or wants to be gay and marry his or her partner," Heath said. "I think taking care of our country is much more of an issue than getting into the homes of people and what their lives are like."
What about the Democrats? Less than half of respondents say they want to hear candidates devote time to same-sex marriage (45%), abortion (29%) and candidates' religious beliefs (14%).
About the Iowa Poll
The Iowa Poll, conducted May 25-29 for The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 437 registered Iowa voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Democratic caucuses and 402 registered voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Republican caucuses.
Interviewers contacted 4,161 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state's voter registration list by telephone. Responses were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect all active voters in the voter registration list.
Questions based on the subsample of 437 likely Democratic caucus attendees have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points, and questions based on the subsample of 402 likely Republican caucus attendees have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 4.7 or 4.9 percentage points, respectively. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.
Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics is prohibited.
Coming Wednesday
What do Iowans think of the prospect that former President Bill Clinton could be an adviser to Hillary Clinton as president, or former President George W. Bush could be an adviser to Jeb Bush?