Jeb Bush faces family history in New Hampshire

AMHERST, N.H. — The New Hampshire primary has been both heaven and hell for the Bush family.

Now, Jeb Bush is in political purgatory, Granite State-style.

The successes and failures of his father and brother hang over the former Florida governor as he faces what might be a must win in February's New Hampshire primary — and voters who lined a July Fourth parade route this weekend in Amherst had plenty of advice for the latest Bush presidential candidate.

"Change his name?" joked Donni Hodgkins as she helped prepare a float sponsored by the Souhegan Valley Republican Women.

"I hate to say that," added Hodgkins, who is staying neutral in the Republican race. "But I think that is the biggest hindrance for him. A lot of people don't want a dynasty."

Bush heard a few catcalls as he greeted residents along the noisy parade route — "no more Bushes!" shouted one critic — but others had no problem with the idea of a third Bush in the White House.

Micah Dyson, an Atlanta-area resident visiting family members in New Hampshire, attracted the attention of the candidate with a T-shirt reading, "Bush Hat Trick."

The family name is probably "an issue," Dyson said, but not an insurmountable one: "He's got to represent himself. He's got to make sure he's his own man."

Jeb Bush has long said he is different from his father and his brother and that he plans to make his case with traditional New Hampshire-style retail politics: voter by voter.

People in New Hampshire literally tell you "'nice first meeting — after we meet four or five more times, you know, I'll consider supporting you,'" Bush told reporters after marching in holiday parades in Amherst and Merrimack.

Said Bush: "I intend to be here regularly."

The Bush family, which has roots in New England, has been part of New Hampshire's political landscape for decades now.

The state ruined one Bush candidacy and nearly ruined another. It also launched the family patriarch, George H.W. Bush, toward the White House in 1988.

"It's a mixed bag," said Dante Scala, a political scientist with the University of New Hampshire.

Back in 1980, George H.W. Bush launched his presidential campaign career with an upset win in Iowa, defeating favorite Ronald Reagan. The elder Bush roared into New Hampshire with what he called "Big Mo," only to get blown out by a re-energized Reagan.

Bush, then Reagan's vice president, returned to the New Hampshire primary eight years later, this time coming off a third-place finish in Iowa. A win over Bob Dole re-booted his campaign, and he went on to claim the White House.

His eldest son, George W. Bush, hit the streets of New Hampshire in 2000 but lost big to maverick Republican John McCain. The second Bush needed a win in South Carolina to steady his campaign.

Looking to Jeb Bush's bid in New Hampshire, some analysts said he might benefit more from his father's example, emphasizing economic issues and bidding for independent voters who are eligible to vote in the Republican primary.

Though the senior Bush had called Texas home for decades, many New Hampshire residents saw him as a fellow Northeasterner. After all, he grew up in Connecticut and had a home in Kennebunkport, Maine.

George W. Bush owned a ranch near Crawford, Texas. New Hampshire voters tended to see him as pure Texan, and his social conservatism did not play as well in a state where economic issues often hold more sway.

One way or another, New Hampshire is likely to be pivotal for Jeb Bush's presidential bid.

The Iowa caucuses begin the Republican nomination contest, but a neighboring governor — Scott Walker of Wisconsin — is considered the favorite there.

New Hampshire's primary follows Iowa, and Bush figures to be the best-funded candidate in the race. Scala said "the ramifications of a loss for him would be severe."

Independent voters could be decisive in what figures to be a complex Republican race. Turnout in the Republican contest could depend on whether the Democrats have a close race.

David Paleologos, the director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, said Bush's campaign also needs to figure out the voting percentage they will need to win the New Hampshire primary — a relative small number, given the fact there could be as many as 16 major GOP candidates on the ballot.

"You've got to believe that the threshold for winning is some place in the 20s," Paleologos said.

Longtime New Hampshire Republican operative Tom Rath, who supported both George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush and has not yet endorsed in this race, said doing well in New Hampshire is "sort of a ticket to admission to the rest of the campaign."

Having participated in New Hampshire primaries since 1964, Rath agreed that a number in the high 20s could win for Bush or any of the other candidates.

"This is the most open race I've seen," Rath said.

Ingrid Michaelis, an Amherst realtor and volunteer at the July Fourth parade, said she is an independent voter who respects the Bush family, but won't decide who to support until late in the race.

"I want to see all the candidates as they come through," she said.

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