Biden and Trump campaigns schedule major TV buys in Ohio, now rated a 'toss-up' state
COLUMBUS – Welcome back, battleground Ohio.
Ohio was considered a solid GOP state by many after it gave Donald Trump an 8-point victory in 2016 and chose Republicans for all statewide executive offices in 2018. But now, one of the nation's most respected political prognosticators has officially moved the Buckeye State into "toss-up" status for the 2020 presidential race.
As a seeming confirmation, the campaigns of both former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump are launching major TV ad buys next week as Ohioans begin early voting.
Yes, that means Ohioans screens are going to be filled with campaign ads just like in previous election cycles when the battleground status of Ohio was never in doubt.
The change, said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, comes "both because of the broad improvements Biden has made with white voters in many different places and also because of more recent polling showing the presidential race very competitive in each state. ... Operatives on both sides in Ohio have found the president struggling mightily in key suburban areas."
Biden might be "turning back the clock slightly to 2012," with Midwestern states such as Ohio and Iowa "better targets than those emerging battlefields of the Sun Belt."
Other political gurus are finding the same thing. "Biden is winning back some of the Obama-Trump white working-class voters who flocked to Trump four years ago," said Nate Silver in FiveThirtyEight.com.
Silver acknowledged fears of Biden backers that Trump could again win the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote, and that there could be a large polling error in Trump’s favor.
"Biden is only truly safe to win the Electoral College once he has a popular vote margin of 5 points or more. But, he’s a fairly heavy favorite with a 3- to 5-point margin, and has roughly break-even odds with a 2- to 3-point margin," Silver said.
Read more: Joe Biden launches whistle-stop tour in Cleveland after ugly debate with Donald Trump
But Biden needs a cushion in the polls to assure victory: "A 7-point Biden lead on Election Day could, indeed, turn into a 2-point Biden popular vote win where Trump narrowly wins the Electoral College."
For the first time, Sabato is projecting Biden with at least 270 electoral votes, the number needed to win. Other toss-up states are Florida, Iowa, Arizona and North Carolina.
Although Biden had been airing ads in Toledo and Youngstown stations while Trump remains dark, the Democrat's commercials now will appear on outlets in Columbus, Cleveland and Cincinnati. Trump has not aired ads in Ohio for several weeks, although viewers may see national ads from both candidates.
“The wind is at Joe Biden’s back in Ohio,” said Toni Webb, the Biden campaign's Ohio director. "For two days, Joe Biden spoke directly with hardworking families who have been betrayed and lied to by President Trump — and who have lost jobs, health care, and even the communities they love as a result.
Daniel Lusheck, spokesman for Trump's Ohio campaign, took issue with the latest projection and Biden's Ohio strategy.
"Crystal Ball may be well on its way to having the worst political predictions of 2020, as well as 2016, and Joe Biden is welcome to waste money in the Buckeye State because it will never make up for his vote for NAFTA and betrayal of Ohio workers," Lusheck said.
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During a coronavirus briefing Tuesday, Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine responded to a question about the presidential race.
"I never bought into this argument that Ohio's become a Republican state. I mean, Ohio's a swing state," the governor said. "I think (Trump's) going to win this time in Ohio. I think it will be close, but I think he will win.
"But sure, we'll see. Ohio is certainly in play."
Read more: How to motivate Ohio voters? Trump making visits, Biden running ads
Biden is planning three different ads starting Tuesday: Benefits, What It Means to Serve and New Start, which tells viewers "this is our chance to put the darkness of the past four years behind us."
Biden made a pair of Ohio appearances Wednesday during an old-school whistle-stop train tour in Cleveland, Alliance and western Pennsylvania.
“I felt good about the whole day," he told reporters at the final stop. "I felt good about what's happened the last couple days, and it looks like based on, not our polling, independent polling, that we're making — we're picking up an awful lot of the folks who used to be Democrats -- they’re coming back home.”
drowland@dispatch.com; @darreldrowland