Arizona governor’s race: New poll shows tight contest between Hobbs, Lake
PHOENIX - A new poll shows Democrat Katie Hobbs and Republican Kari Lake essentially tied in the race to be Arizona’s next governor, separated by a single percentage point with one in five independent voters still undecided just weeks before ballots are mailed out.
The Arizona Republic and azcentral.com/Suffolk University poll of 500 likely midterm voters gave Hobbs a razor-thin lead over Lake, with 46% of respondents saying they would certainly or probably vote for Hobbs versus 45% for Lake. That’s within the poll’s margin of error.
Likely voters also were asked to evaluate outgoing Republican Gov. Doug Ducey's job performance, which sagged during the pandemic. Forty percent of respondents viewed his performance positively, while 49% rated it unfavorably. In a similar poll from October 2020, 35% viewed Ducey favorably and 42% rated him unfavorably.
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Hobbs, Arizona's secretary of state, also leads Lake, a former TV news anchor, in likely voters’ general views of the candidates. More of these voters view Lake unfavorably than Hobbs. Among respondents, 44% viewed Hobbs favorably, compared with 32% who viewed her unfavorably. For Lake, 41% viewed her favorably, compared with 46% who viewed her unfavorably.
Polling highlights opportunities
The race for Arizona governor is one of the most competitive in the country. The polling highlighted areas where Hobbs and Lake should focus in the final weeks of their campaigns, according to David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.
“From a strategic standpoint, both Hobbs and Lake need to focus really exclusively on independents and secondly, Hispanic voters,” Paleologos said.
Independents, who make up about one-third of registered voters, have historically played a decisive role in elections in this swing state. This cycle should repeat that trend.
Among those polled, 17% of the Hispanic voters had not decided who they would choose for governor, representing one demographic where either candidate could pick up a race-defining wave of support. That's a larger share than the governor’s race overall, in which 8% of likely voters were undecided.
That signals Hispanic voters “who obviously don't feel as connected to either of these candidates at this point," Paleologos said.
Undecided voters were equally split when ranking their top issues, identifying inflation/the economy and abortion, according to the poll, which was conducted around the time a Pima County judge allowed a Civil War-era law banning most abortions in the state to take effect.
The poll did not ask specifically about border security, Lake’s top issue, but 3% of respondents said either public safety or drugs/opioids were their top concern.
The polling showed a large gender gap, with Lake holding a 16-point advantage among men and Hobbs drawing more support from women, also by 16 points.
About the poll
Political polls offer a snapshot of how voters are feeling at a point in time and don’t always predict a race’s outcome. Polling averages compiled by the political news website FiveThirtyEight show Hobbs with a 2 percentage point lead over Lake, although Lake has narrowed the gap.
The latest poll affirms political predictions: It’s a toss-up, meaning either party could win.
The Republic and Suffolk University poll was completed by cellphone and landlines from Sept. 21 to Sept. 25 and has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points. Respondents were roughly evenly split between Republicans, Democrats and independents, in line with state voter registration statistics.
About 57% of respondents lived in Maricopa County. Almost 74% of respondents were white, about 18% were Hispanic or Latino, and just under 3% were Black.
Reach reporter Stacey Barchenger at stacey.barchenger@arizonarepublic.com or 480-416-5669. Follow her on Twitter @sbarchenger.