Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin may have edge on Tom Barrett, but race for US House far from over
LANSING, Mich - In her previous two campaigns, U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., has been anything but a shoo-in, eking out a win against an incumbent congressman in 2018 and winning reelection by less than 4 percentage points in 2020 in a district won that same year by then-President Donald Trump.
This year may be different.
Despite drawing a formidable candidate in state Sen. Tom Barrett, R-Charlotte, and running in a year when Republicans had been expected to have an edge in toss-up seats like this one, there are indications that the well-funded and battle-tested Slotkin has the wind at her back, at least for now.
The website FiveThirtyEight.com, which simulates races based on polling, has her winning 75 times out of 100 in the newly drawn 7th Congressional District as of Monday. The only recent survey of the race, by Ed Sarpolus at Lansing-based Target Insyght, had Slotkin ahead this month by 56%-38%, in a poll of 500 voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. If accurate, that would be huge in a district where President Joe Biden beat Trump by less than a percentage point two years ago and where Hillary Clinton lost by 4 points in 2016.
“It could still tighten up,” Sarpolus said. “But (Slotkin) has an advantage at every level.”
“People don’t know him enough,” he said of Barrett, whose state Senate district includes much of the congressional district but not more populous parts of Ingham and Livingston counties, which Slotkin already represents. Meanwhile, Slotkin has spent millions since 2018 portraying herself as an independent, moderate Democrat worthy of winning in what had been a safe Republican district.
Sarpolus also thinks Barrett is being held back by voters' concerns about − or unfamiliarity with − the top of the Republican ticket and Tudor Dixon, the party's gubernatorial candidate.
Still, there are questions, being asked nationwide, whether polls are skewing more toward Democrats than they should be – as they did in 2020 and in 2016.
Barrett, a former Army helicopter pilot and analyst for the Michigan Department of Treasury, certainly believes he has a strong shot, with Republicans firmly in his corner and inflation having risen under Biden to 40-year highs.
“When you print money at the pace that they (Democrats) are and spend money at the pace that they are, it has no effect other than devaluing everybody's money that's already in their pocket, which makes prices go up for everything,” said Barrett. “Everything from a gallon of milk to a gallon of gas costs way too much… This has been directly enabled by Elissa Slotkin voting for trillions of new spending.”
Barrett's got other arguments to level at Democrats, too: A withdrawal from Afghanistan where a terrorist attack left 13 U.S. service members and 169 Afghan citizens dead. His belief that military leaders are pushing a "woke political philosophy" of recognizing non-binary and transgender troops that is killing morale.
"The challenges there are severe (and) they're focusing on the wrong things," he said.
Slotkin's key argument to voters regarding Barrett may be his anti-abortion stance: He has referred to himself as “100% pro-life” and declined to say if there should be any exceptions for rape or incest at a time when Republicans in Congress are discussing a national abortion ban if they take control. But she also says his stance against corporate incentives, including those that helped bring a General Motors battery facility into the district, are foolish, even if he argues better schools and infrastructure are bigger priorities.
“When he says he doesn't want to pick sides, I shake my head, because the sides that are being picked are Team USA or Team China,” she said.
Sarpolus’ poll aside, Slotkin’s not taking the race for granted.
“I don't know anything other than to be scrappy and to work hard and to run in a difficult race, where, you know, it's at best a tossup,” she said. “Yes, this is a more difficult year for Democrats. But I just outwork my opponent. I've done it before. And I'll do it again.”
New district marginally Democratic but Republicans have won there
Slotkin’s got one edge she didn’t have before: a district that is a bit more Democratic-leaning than her current one. When an independent commission drew new boundaries, it moved Slotkin’s home base in Holly, in northern Oakland County, into the new 9th District, which stretches into the Thumb.
The new 7th moved west and north, taking in all of Lansing and East Lansing and stretching from the southwest corner of Oakland County through Livingston County west through much of Eaton County. To the north, it picked up Clinton and Shiawassee counties.
As such, it is home to large, rural swaths of mid-Michigan. But it is also home to lots of government and university employees, commuters to Lansing and metro Detroit. It is a true swing district, having rejected Trump – barely – in 2020 but having supported Republican John James – by just 549 votes, or about one-tenth of 1 percentage point – over Democratic U.S. Sen. Gary Peters that same year.
Slotkin’s advantage, however, is that through three cycles, she has not only been able to raise scads of money – as of the last campaign finance reports in mid-July, she had raised $6.9 million compared to Barrett’s $1.4 million – but has successfully portrayed herself as an independent voice in Washington.
Much of that is her background: Slotkin served as an intelligence officer and did three tours in Iraq, working for both Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama and rose to become Obama’s acting assistant secretary in the Pentagon. In conversation, she takes tough questions in stride, and her campaigns have been tightly organized, leaving little to chance. Attacks from her opponents seldom go unanswered. Biden, who worked with her as Obama’s vice president, liked to say on the campaign trail about Slotkin, “She’s smarter than you,” with a mock-whisper into the microphone.
Commenting on her toughness, her brother once told the Free Press, "Don't get in a knife fight" with her.
Slotkin’s now renting a home in Lansing – with Republicans criticizing her for leasing from an executive at a medical firm that has received government contracts and given to her campaign. (She's paying $2,000 a month for the property.) Meanwhile, Slotkin has continued to hammer at the issues that got her here – access to health care, lower costs, cheaper drug prices. A new ad reminds voters about her mother's death from cancer, a story she has referenced before – and how the newly passed Inflation Reduction Act cuts drug prices for seniors.
Said Sarpolus: “The best candidates… run like it’s the first time every time. You always act like no one has heard of you before.”
Like Slotkin, Barrett has run ahead of his party in the past
Barrett’s story is different. While Slotkin went to Cranbrook, a member of the family that introduced Ball Park Franks to Tiger Stadium and beyond, Barrett grew up the son of a college administrator in Madison Heights. (He jokes that at Lamphere High School, which he attended, they took field trips to Cranbrook.) His upbringing was solidly middle class, he said, but there was one politician in the family: His great-grandfather, Louis Rabaut, was a longtime Democratic congressman perhaps best known for adding the words “under God,” to the Pledge of Allegiance.
Barrett went into the Army after high school and was serving as a field artillery scout in South Korea when the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks happened (an event that also sent Slotkin into intelligence). Barrett came home after his tour, attending Western Michigan University but remaining part-time with the Army. He would wind up being deployed at Guantanamo Bay, guarding detainees, then served in Iraq and got a spot in flight school.
“The Army taught me to fly some really cool helicopters,” he said. He came back to Michigan and got a job with Treasury. There he served as an analyst and worked with the Legislature and land banks around the state, all of it informing his eventual decision to run for a state representative seat in 2014. He beat an incumbent, state Rep. Theresa Abed, D-Grand Ledge, by 148 votes and ran better than former Gov. Rick Snyder in the district. He’d win again in ’16 and take a state Senate seat in 2018, each time running ahead of the top of the ticket.
In interviews, Barrett is easygoing and willing to talk about any subject, though he is a disciplined enough campaigner not to go further than he'd like. Asked about his stance on abortion, for instance, he repeats his belief that “life begins in the womb” and -- while never becoming disagreeable -- won’t necessarily explain if that means at conception.
In his ads, he showcases his kids -- who almost steal the show -- and features himself talking to women at a supermarket about rising prices.
And he’s as proud of his record as Slotkin is of hers.
“The people in my district have trusted me to advocate for them. I'm the only Iraq War veteran in the Michigan Senate. I take that as a very serious obligation… Of our post 9/11 generation, you know, I'm the only voice there in Lansing in the state Senate.”
Contact Todd Spangler: tspangler@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter@tsspangler.