Georgia GOP voters promise 'red wave' for midterms, with inflation, education at forefront

Show Caption

SAVANNAH, Ga. – Not since Bill Clinton had a Democratic presidential candidate won Georgia. But in 2020, the state went blue, with Joe Biden defeating Donald Trump by less than 12,000 votes and two Democrats winning U.S. Senate seats in runoff elections. 

Two years later, the question is no longer “Can Democrats do it?” but instead “Can they do it again?” And if the Georgia GOP has anything to say about it, the answer is “No.”

Republicans in Georgia have had a tumultuous two years since the 2020 election. A divide arose shortly after the election within GOP groups at both the state and local levels, pitting longtime establishment-type leaders at odds with the new, more vocal pro-Trump supporters.

Yet the greatest unifier is a common enemy, and with Democrats in control of the U.S. House, the U.S. Senate and the Oval Office, the GOP has plenty of adversaries. Blaming the Democrats in power for the nation's problems is the Republican message for this midterm election, one they hope will drive GOP turnout in Georgia once early voting opens Oct. 17 ahead of election day on Nov. 8.

Start of early voting loomsin the 2022 Georgia midterm election. What you need to know

Smart analysis delivered to your inbox: Sign up for the OnPolitics newsletter

Disadvantage: Democrats

In a midterm election, the party holding power is typically considered to be at a disadvantage. There are a few explanations for why this happens, University of Georgia professor Charles Bullock III said. 

“One that's simple to understand is that it's a midterm report card on the administration in the White House,” Bullock said. “You can't vote for or against the president, though you can register your satisfaction or dissatisfaction with what the national administration is doing." 

Another reason is the dropoff of voters overall. Statistics show the most well-attended elections are presidential contests. With fewer voters in the midterm, the dissatisfied make up a larger percentage of the electorate, Bullock said. 

“Two years later, folks don't come back. And so, the electorate drops back, with less intense incentives to go to the polls,” Bullock said. Without those voters who were brought to the polls two years earlier to vote for the president, the president's party suffers.

2022 midterms: The turnout election

Most elections hinge on voter turnout - the candidates best at energizing constituents and getting them to the polls on Election Day win. With political polarization at what many pundits call a historical high and Georgia evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats, races up and down the 2022 midterms will be determined by voter engagement.

Paste BN Georgia journalists explored the forces that could impact voter turnout and how the political parties are attempting to address their challenges.

One long election: For Georgia voters, 2022 election is an extension of 2020

'Purple state'?: Democrats expect to rally voters around abortion, guns

'Red wave': Republicans lean in on inflation, culture war issues

‘If they steal your vote, keep voting’

For Sara Lain-Moneymaker, a Chatham County resident and staunch Republican, inflation is the issue that stays on her mind — the cost of milk, the cost of living in general, but especially the cost of gas.

“The gas prices, and the thing is there, it may be like $3, $4 a gallon now. But we know that after the election, when they can't dip into the strategic oil reserves anymore, they're going to jump right back up to $5 or $6 a gallon,” Lain-Moneymaker said, alluding to the Biden Administration's drawing down of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at the fastest rate in history this year. 

Election integrity remains a concern for Lain-Moneymaker as well. She’s still pushing for the state to replace the Dominion Voting Systems, purchased in 2019, and replace the machines with hand-marked paper ballots. She believes Dominion machines changed votes in 2020 to rig the election for Biden.

She says to counter her fears of the Dominion machines swapping her votes, she and her family cast absentee ballots, which she says are the closest things to a paper ballot.

“I tell people, ‘Vote, just vote.’ And even if they steal your vote, keep voting, because if we stopped voting, then just we have no choice,” Lain-Moneymaker said. “I'm confident that people want a red wave. The question is: Is it going to be counted properly?”

‘America First’

Jeanne Seaver, a grassroots GOP activist from Savannah, was hoping to be on the ballot herself in November as the candidate for lieutenant governor. She didn’t win her primary, but she’s still expecting to be part of a red wave in November.

“I think people are suffering in many, many ways,” Seaver said. “Even though you see so many different polls, the inflation economy is one of the biggest issues that we're all suffering from out here. And I think usually, the people in power are the ones to blame for it, which I believe they are.”

Seaver also expects inflation to drive GOP voters out in force, but she said there’s plenty of other issues for conservatives to rally around, including securing the border, what students are being taught in pubic school classrooms and  “America First policies.”

“I know a lot of people disappointed in the Republican Party for some of the things but I think that the Republican Party will pull it off,” Seaver said. “Will the Libertarian vote hurt us some? Probably, but I think that we will prevail because I think people are starting to wake up.”

Will Peebles is the City Council and County Commission reporter for Savannah Morning News, covering local Savannah and Chatham County decisions. He can be reached at wpeebles@savannahnow.com or on Twitter @willpeeblesSMN