The debates are done. Here's what to expect in the final weeks of the Mandela Barnes-Ron Johnson Wisconsin U.S. Senate race
It's not quite the final sprint.
But with the debates completed, Wisconsin's pivotal U.S. Senate race kicks into the nuts-and-bolts of high-stakes campaigning with a deluge of TV ads, old-fashioned barnstorming and the inevitable push to drive turnout to the Nov. 8 election — three weeks away.
Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson leads his Democratic rival, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, according to recent polling.
Last week's Marquette University Law School Poll showed Johnson surging to a 6-point advantage among likely voters, with a 52% to 46% lead. Among registered voters, the race was tied.
But the two campaigns have internal polling that suggests a close race, with Johnson ahead by a few percentage points but within the margin of error.
Predictably, both sides express confidence they'll close the deal with the voters.
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter still rates the race a toss-up.
"In Wisconsin, they've got to energize the base," said Jessica Taylor, the Cook Report's Senate and Governors Editor. "There are just so few swing voters and the state is so evenly divided. That has factored into the rating."
Here's what to expect in the coming weeks.
Events and TV ads will ramp up for Wisconsin's U.S. Senate race
Democrats are trying to shore up turnout in Milwaukee and to do it they're bringing in their campaign "closer," scheduling an Oct. 29 rally headlined by former President Barack Obama.
The race is the fourth most expensive Senate contest in the country, projected to reach nearly $150 million on TV ads alone, according to AdImpact, a political ad tracking firm. That leaves Wisconsin behind only Georgia, Pennsylvania and Arizona.
It's also one of the most balanced races in terms of Democratic vs. Republican spending, the firm found.
Since the August primary and through Election Day, Republicans and their allies have either spent or booked $48 million in TV ads in Wisconsin, while Democrats have either spent or booked $43.5 million, according to AdImpact figures.
Debates provided clues for where Johnson, Barnes will go next
It's unclear what effect the two debates had on the course of the race.
The first debate, held by the Wisconsin Broadcasters Association, allowed the candidates to concisely recite their talking points.
Thursday night's second debate, hosted by WTMJ-TV (Channel 4), was a more raucous event held in front of a live audience, with both candidates going on offense and getting personal.
Their closing statements provided clues on where they see the race headed in the closing weeks.
Johnson sought to tie Barnes to national Democrats, claiming he would be "a rubber stamp" for President Joe Biden and Sen. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York.
"Wisconsin voters ought to be asking, 'are you better off or worse off since Democrats took control?'" Johnson said. "Considering 40-year high inflation, record gas prices, skyrocketing crime, an open border (flooded) with deadly drugs, I think it's very obvious most people are worse off."
Barnes accused Johnson of attempting to hide and distract "from his failed record" and said people across the state "have so much in common with each other than we'll ever have with self-serving out-of-touch politicians."
"Women's lives and women's health are on the line," Barnes declared as he continued to criticize Johnson on the issue of abortion.
Republicans will continue focus on crime, inflation and gas prices
The top issues in the race have been set for weeks, if not more than a year.
For Republicans, it's pounding Barnes on crime. Johnson and his GOP allies piled on the lieutenant governor with millions of dollars in ads shortly after he won the August primary.
"There were a lot of things in his background that made for easy ads," Taylor said. "The 'Abolish ICE' T-shirt, the photo with Ilhan Omar. There were clear things Republicans were gong to use and they have."
Republicans are also hitting hard on the economy, emphasizing inflation and rising gas prices.
"It’s going to be more of the same — he’s radically out of touch with the Wisconsin electorate," is how one Republican operative described the run of ads that will be aired against Barnes in the closing weeks. "They will be the two issues people care about most, the cost of living and crime."
Democrats have highlighted Johnson's wealth but abortion is now a main focus
For Democrats, the long-term play has been to try to portray Johnson as out-of-touch and out-for-himself and his wealthy donors.
Beginning in early October, the Barnes campaign pivoted hard to abortion, pointing to Johnson's co-sponsorship in 2011 for a bill on a so-called "personhood" amendment, and past support for bills limiting abortion.
In the closing weeks, Barnes plans an aggressive stretch of campaigning with a focus of turning out votes in Democratic strongholds of Milwaukee and Madison.
"Republican strategy is often to hit early," said an operative close to the Barnes campaign. "Democratic strategy is to land your blow in the final days. We’ll see which one works."