Tim Ryan is raising more than J.D. Vance. Can he counter national GOP spending?

CINCINNATI - U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan is raising among the most money of any U.S. Senate candidate in the country.

And his campaign is spending it almost as fast as donations come in.

The Democratic congressman once again outraised his opponent, Republican J.D. Vance, in Ohio's competitive Senate race in the latest spending period, according to Federal Election Commission filings. He received $17.2 million in total during the third quarter, a sum that included contributions from donors in Ohio and across the country.

Ryan's campaign spent $19.4 million during the same timeframe, bringing his bill to a whopping $37.6 million since the onset of the race. Heading into the final weeks of the election cycle, he had roughly $1.4 million in the bank.

Vance, by contrast, brought in over $6.9 million in the third quarter, which included a $700,000 personal loan from the candidate and transfers from joint finance committees backing his Senate bid. The campaign spent $3.4 million and had roughly the same amount left in the bank. The author and venture capitalist attracted donors from in and outside of Ohio, including high-profile names such as Cleveland Browns owners James and Dee Haslam.

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Vance's allies continued to dismiss concerns about Ryan's fundraising advantage. Independent polls have largely shown the race as a statistical tie, with Vance, on average, maintaining a slight edge over Ryan.

“This is an effort to move the goalposts by a desperate, losing Ryan campaign that has torched tens of millions of dollars on a candidate who can’t get above 45% in the polls," said Luke Thompson, who runs a super PAC that supports Vance. "Does the campaign suck or does the candidate suck, or both? Because that’s a lot of money spent with (nothing) to show for it."

Who's helping Ryan and Vance?

Unlike Vance, Ryan is largely on his own. The Mitch McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership PAC poured $28 million into Ohio to boost Vance's campaign, and he's also getting help from a new super PAC run by allies of former President Donald Trump.

Outside groups supporting Ryan have spent a fraction of that. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chipped in $1.3 million for a coordinated ad buy with Ryan's campaign. Save America Fund, a group formed specifically to help Ryan, had invested $2.8 million as of Friday.

"Democrats can win tough states when they have three things: 1) an excellent Democratic candidate 2) an equally flawed Republican candidate and 3) the Democrat has to run an excellent campaign," said Eric Heyers, who's leading Save America Fund.

Ryan's allies note that Ohio was an "unexpected expense" for Republicans and contend the Senate Leadership PAC investment outed GOP concerns about Vance's standing in the race. Indeed, Vance's campaign appeared to stagnate over the summer, and it used fundraising events to retire debt incurred for the primary election. That debt has been paid off.

At the same time, Democrats are frustrated that the national party hasn't invested more in Ohio's race. Most notably, the Senate Majority PAC − which is pouring millions into competitive states like Pennsylvania − has yet to spend a dime in the Buckeye State.

Former Ohio Democratic Party chairman David Pepper said this illustrates a larger problem with the Democratic Party: Election after election, they tend to count Ohio out.

“Here you have a candidate who is tied with a month ago, he’s raised more every single time, he’s running a better campaign, he made a fool out of Vance on the debate stage," Pepper said. "If not for this race, when?"

Ohio is a tougher pill to swallow for Democratic leaders who need to prioritize resources across the nation in a key midterm election. Ohio went for former President Donald Trump by 8 percentage points in 2016 and 2020. National groups are also working to protect incumbents like Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock while eyeing an opportunity to unseat GOP Sen. Ron Johnson in Wisconsin.

Still, the Senate Majority PAC isn't ruling anything out.

“Tim Ryan is running a remarkably strong campaign that is resonating with Ohio voters of every political persuasion and putting Republicans on defense, while Vance’s weak candidacy has become a serious liability for the GOP," said the group's president, J.B. Poersch. "We’re going to continue making strategic, effective decisions that put us in the best position possible to accomplish our mission: defending our Democratic Senate majority."

In the meantime, Pepper said, Ryan is able to fight back because he's run an effective campaign and raised millions of dollars on his own. The absence of outside help could also bolster the image of a candidate who, in an effort to attract moderate voters, has painted himself as independent of Democratic leadership.

“Would I rather have the guy who’s going to owe it all to Mitch McConnell," Pepper said, "or the guy who did it himself through small-dollar donors?"

Haley BeMiller is a reporter for the Paste BN Network Ohio Bureau, which serves the Columbus Dispatch, Cincinnati Enquirer, Akron Beacon Journal and 18 other affiliated news organizations across Ohio.