3 takeaways from the Georgia U.S. Senate race: Why the Warnock-Walker contest is going to a runoff

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In the Nov. 8 midterm elections, Sen. Raphael Warnock edged out Herschel Walker in the vote count for a U.S. Senate seat, but Libertarian Chase Oliver took 2% of the vote - enough to keep either candidate from a majority. Because neither major party candidate managed to claim a majority, a Georgia U.S. Senate seat will be decided by runoff for the third time in two years, with voters returning to the polls Dec. 6.

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Warnock won the seat in a runoff in January 2021 on the same day Jon Ossoff defeated David Perdue for the state's other Senate seat. Normally an incumbent senator would have more time in office before running for office again, but Warnock's win was in a special election to fill the term of the late Sen. Johnny Isakson, who retired due to ill health.

Warnock defeated Republican Kelly Loeffler, who was appointed by Gov. Brian Kemp to fill Isakson's seat prior to the special election.

Now voters will have to turn out for another runoff — races which generally see lower turnout, and historically have favored Republicans.

Here are reasons why neither Warnock nor Walker received enough votes to win the seat without a runoff.

Turnout trailed off towards the end

Early voting was strong, with about 2.5 million voters between in-person and absentee ballots. The final day of the early vote exceeded not only the 2018 turnout, but even the final day of the 2020 presidential election, according to the Secretary of State's office.

Election numbers dipped on Election Day, however, and the total vote count for 2022 in the gubernatorial race was about 3.9 million, nearly the same total number as the governor's race in 2018.

Almost 40% of white registered voters voted early, while 36% of Black voters voted early across the state. County totals are available from Election Day, but age, race, and gender data has not yet been published by the Secretary of State's office. 

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Average Election Day turnout may have dampened Democratic candidates' performance and kept Warnock from winning outright. 

"Republicans usually do a better job of getting their voters back to the polls in the midterm than do Democrats, therefore if it's a really high turnout election, all things being equal it probably works to the advantage of Democrats," Charles Bullock, a University of Georgia political science professor widely considered the foremost authority on state politics, said earlier this fall.

Walker underperformed other Republicans 

Those voters who did come out on Election Day did not favor Democratic candidates statewide — Gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams fell well short of incumbent Republican Brian Kemp, losing by about 300,000 votes, and that trend continued for all the state constitutional offices.

Warnock, though, ended up with about 131,000 more votes than Abrams — and approximately 35,000 votes ahead of Walker. Meanwhile, Walker lagged Kemp by about 200,000 votes. So while Democratic turnout disappointed overall, Warnock benefit from split-ticket voters.

Going into the election, Walker was consistently polling lower than Gov. Brian Kemp.

Previously: Abortion, inflation dominate in GA Senate debate with Herschel Walker, Raphael Warnock: recap

The day before the election, the polling aggregator 538.com estimated that Kemp would receive 53% of the vote, and he held a lead in the polling all summer. Walker, meanwhile, was estimated to receive 49.6% of the vote, with Warnock less than percentage point behind with 49% of the vote. 

Warnock was the incumbent in the race, as was Kemp, which may have helped them. Walker has no experience as an elected official and at one point on the campaign trail said "I'm a country boy. I'm not that smart."

Walker also faced a number of scandals over the course of the race. In June it was revealed that Walker had four children, not just his adult son Christian. Walker's ex-wife, Cindy Grossman, said he threatened her with violence on several occasions. In the final weeks of the election, two women came forward to allege that Walker paid for their abortions, one in 1993 and one in 2009, despite sometimes advocating for a total ban on abortion with no exceptions for rape or incest. 

Control of the U.S. Senate was on the line

Heading into Nov. 8, Georgia was one of a handful of states with competitive Senate races. With the 100-member chamber divided equally coming into the election, outcomes in those contests would determine majority control of the chamber.

This big picture outlook was cited by many voters in exit polls as a reason for how they cast their ballots in the Georgia race. Voters uncomfortable with Walker - or Warnock - overlooked their shortcomings in the interest of promoting a party to power. The trend was a repeat of the 2020 runoffs - Warnock's and Ossoff's wins two years ago gave the Democrats a majority.

Party control of the Senate is no longer a factor in the 2022 runoff. Over the weekend, Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto won re-election in Nevada, narrowly defeating her Republican challenger Adam Laxalt, giving control of the Senate to Democrats regardless of the outcome in Georgia.

Control of the Senate: Catherine Cortez Masto wins Nevada race against Adam Laxalt, cementing Democratic control of Senate

While 51 votes over 50 votes in the Senate would be helpful for the Democrats, a Warnock victory on Dec. 6 will not swing control of the chamber.

Republican voters who turned out in the general were already less enthusiastic about Walker — every other statewide Republican candidate broke 2 million votes, even far down the ballot. Without Senate control on the ballot, the number of voters who turn out again may be small.

Still, both sides are ramping up for a hard fight.

On Monday, the state Republican party announced that hundreds of additional GOP staffers will be arriving in the state for the runoff, and the anti-abortion organization Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America announced they would spend at least $1 million in the Georgia runoff, backing Walker. 

Meanwhile progressive organizations began gearing up for another round even before the runoff was officially confirmed. 

"We're experienced in how to turn out voters for a runoff," said Kendra Cotton, New Georgia Project Action Fund CEO. "We've done this before and we're prepped with the knowledge, tools and people power to do it all again."