How every GOP presidential candidate performed with likely caucusgoers in new Iowa Poll

Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll

Former President Donald Trump holds a lead of more than 2-to-1 in Iowa over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the 2024 presidential race among likely Republican caucusgoers.

But results of the Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll show DeSantis does have a lane in Iowa.

His total Iowa “footprint” is 2 percentage points behind Trump: 61% to 63%.

The footprint is measured by adding together those who say the candidate is their first choice for president, those who say the candidate is their second choice and those who are actively considering supporting the candidate.

The poll of 406 likely Republican caucusgoers was conducted Aug. 13-17 by Selzer & Co. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Others in the field of 14 Republican candidates polled worse. Three did not have a single person pick them as their first choice for president. Two others have the support of just one person polled.

Here’s a look at how every candidate is viewed by likely Republican caucusgoers.

Donald Trump

Trump leads the Republican field by more than 20 percentage points over his closest rival, DeSantis, with 42% picking Trump as their first choice and 19% picking DeSantis.

Trump’s total Iowa footprint of 63% among likely Republican caucusgoers includes:

42% who say he is their first choice
10% who say he is their second choice
12% who say they are actively considering him

(For all candidates, the footprint figure and the sum of first and second choices and those actively considering a candidate may differ due to rounding.)

The former president enjoys a greater lead over DeSantis (51% to 20%) among self-identified Republicans but wins only 21% of self-identified independents to DeSantis’ 19%.

Sixty-six percent of Trump supporters say their minds are made up, with 34% saying they could still change their minds.

Trump is viewed favorably by more likely Republican caucusgoers than at any time during his 2016 caucus campaign when he ultimately came in second place.

Trump is viewed favorably by 65% of likely GOP caucusgoers and unfavorably by 33%. The most common response among Republican caucusgoers shows high intensity, with 42% describing themselves as feeling very favorable toward Trump.

Very favorable: 42%
Mostly favorable: 23%
Mostly unfavorable: 14%
Very unfavorable: 19%
Not sure: 2%

Ron DeSantis

DeSantis gives Trump his greatest challenge in Iowa, but he still trails Trump by 23 percentage points when likely Republican caucusgoers are asked to pick their first-choice candidate.

However, DeSantis’ total Iowa footprint adds up to 61% among those same caucusgoers, nearly matching Trump’s. That includes:

19% who say he is their first choice.
20% who say he is their second choice.
22% who say they are actively considering him.

The 20% of likely caucusgoers who say DeSantis is their second choice is twice as large as the 10% who say Trump is their second choice. DeSantis is the second choice of 36% of Trump supporters.

The 22% of caucusgoers actively considering DeSantis is also 10 percentage points higher than the 12% considering Trump.

Just 31% of DeSantis supporters say their minds are made up, compared with 66% of Trump supporters.

Two-thirds of likely GOP caucusgoers view DeSantis favorably (66%) while 29% view him unfavorably.

Very favorable: 27%
Mostly favorable: 38%
Mostly unfavorable: 14%
Very unfavorable: 15%
Not sure: 5%

Tim Scott

U.S. Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina takes third place in the poll with 9% of respondents saying he is their first choice for president.

Scott’s total Iowa footprint adds up to 53% of likely Republican caucusgoers. That includes:

9% who say he is their first choice.
15% who say he is their second choice.
29% who say they are actively considering him.

Scott is the only candidate other than Trump and DeSantis whose footprint includes more than 50% of likely GOP caucusgoers.

Scott outperforms DeSantis with one demographic group. Among women 65 and older, a small group, Scott takes 14% to DeSantis’ 9%. Trump leads among that group with 48%.

Scott also gets 15% of second-choice votes, trailing only DeSantis, at 20%. Trump is at 10%.

Scott is viewed favorably by 59% of likely GOP caucusgoers and unfavorably by 17%.

Very favorable: 25%
Mostly favorable: 34%
Mostly unfavorable: 12%
Very unfavorable: 5%
Not sure: 24%

Nikki Haley

Former United Nations Ambassador and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is the first choice of 6% of likely caucusgoers.

Haley’s total Iowa footprint adds up to 40% of likely Republican caucusgoers. That includes:

6% who say she is their first choice.
5% who say she is their second choice.
29% who say they are actively considering her.

She gets 10% of first-choice support from self-identified independents who are likely Republican caucusgoers.

Haley is viewed favorably by 53% of likely caucusgoers and unfavorably by 26%.

Very favorable: 14%
Mostly favorable: 39%
Mostly unfavorable: 17%
Very unfavorable: 9%
Not sure: 21%

Mike Pence

Former Vice President Mike Pence is the first choice of 6% of likely caucusgoers.

Pence’s total Iowa footprint adds up to 31% of likely Republican caucusgoers. That includes:

6% who say he is their first choice.
7% who say he is their second choice.
19% who say they are actively considering him.

Pence, an evangelical Christian, gets 6% of the first-choice support among evangelicals, the same level of support he receives among Republican caucusgoers overall.

He earns double-digit support from one small demographic group, women younger than 55, where he takes 10%.

Pence’s favorability among likely Republican caucusgoers is underwater. He is viewed favorably by 42% and unfavorably by 53%.

Very favorable: 9%
Mostly favorable: 33%
Mostly unfavorable: 28%
Very unfavorable: 26%
Not sure: 5%

Vivek Ramaswamy

Entrepreneur and author Vivek Ramaswamy is the first choice of 4% of likely caucusgoers.

Ramaswamy’s total Iowa footprint adds up to just over one-third (34%) of likely Republican caucusgoers. That includes:

4% who say he is their first choice.
12% who say he is their second choice.
18% who say they are actively considering him.

Ramaswamy is the only candidate other than Trump, DeSantis and Scott to reach double digits in second-choice support.

Ramaswamy is viewed favorably by 38% of likely caucusgoers and unfavorably by 20%.

Very favorable: 16%
Mostly favorable: 23%
Mostly unfavorable: 13%
Very unfavorable: 7%
Not sure: 41%

Chris Christie

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is the first choice of 5% of likely Republican caucusgoers, despite focusing his campaign on New Hampshire and not appearing in Iowa.

Christie’s total Iowa footprint adds up to just over 1 in 5 likely Republican caucusgoers (21%). That includes:

5% who say he is their first choice.
5% who say he is their second choice.
11% who say they are actively considering him.

Christie has a higher proportion than North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum saying he is their first or second choice, but the smaller group of caucusgoers actively considering him gives him a smaller footprint than Burgum.

Christie, a strident critic of Trump, is underwater among likely Republican caucusgoers for his favorability rating. He is viewed favorably by just over one-quarter of likely caucusgoers (28%) and unfavorably by 60%.

Very favorable: 6%
Mostly favorable: 21%
Mostly unfavorable: 29%
Very unfavorable: 31%
Not sure: 12%

Doug Burgum

North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum is the first choice of 2% of likely Republican caucusgoers.

Burgum’s total Iowa footprint adds up to nearly 1 in 4 likely Republican caucusgoers (23%). That includes:

2% who say he is their first choice.
3% who say he is their second choice.
18% who say they are actively considering him.

Burgum is viewed favorably by 38% of likely GOP caucusgoers and unfavorably by 16%. He’s most popular with the small demographic group of men ages 65 and older: 58% rate him favorably and 12% unfavorably.

Very favorable: 8%
Mostly favorable: 30%
Mostly unfavorable: 10%
Very unfavorable: 6%
Not sure: 46%

Will Hurd

Former U.S. Rep. Will Hurd of Texas is the first choice of 1% of likely caucusgoers.

Hurd’s total Iowa footprint adds up to 6% of likely Republican caucusgoers. That includes:

1% who say he is their first choice.
1% who say he is their second choice.
4% who say they are actively considering him.

The former congressman was booed at the Republican Party of Iowa’s Lincoln Dinner in July when he said Trump is running for president “to stay out of prison.”

Hurd is viewed favorably by 13% of likely caucusgoers and unfavorably by 22%.

Very favorable: 2%
Mostly favorable: 10%
Mostly unfavorable: 12%
Very unfavorable: 9%
Not sure: 66%

Larry Elder

None of the likely Republican caucusgoers polled picked conservative talk radio host and former California gubernatorial candidate Larry Elder as their first choice for president.

Elder’s total Iowa footprint adds up to 15% of likely Republican caucusgoers. That includes:

0% who say he is their first choice.
1% who say he is their second choice.
14% who say they are actively considering him.

Elder is the last candidate whose total footprint among caucusgoers reaches double digits.

Elder is viewed favorably by 31% of likely GOP caucusgoers and unfavorably by 23%.

Very favorable: 6%
Mostly favorable: 25%
Mostly unfavorable: 15%
Very unfavorable: 8%
Not sure: 46%

Asa Hutchinson

None of the likely Republican caucusgoers polled say former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson is their first choice for president.

Hutchinson’s total Iowa footprint adds up to 9% of likely Republican caucusgoers. That includes:

0% who say he is their first choice.
2% who say he is their second choice.
7% who say they are actively considering him.

Hutchinson, who has criticized Trump, is viewed favorably by 20% of likely GOP caucusgoers and unfavorably by 32%.

Very favorable: 2%
Mostly favorable: 18%
Mostly unfavorable: 21%
Very unfavorable: 12%
Not sure: 48%

Perry Johnson

None of the likely Republican caucusgoers polled say businessman and former Michigan gubernatorial candidate Perry Johnson is their first choice for president.

Johnson’s total Iowa footprint adds up to 9% of likely Republican caucusgoers. That includes:

0% who say he is their first choice.
1% who say he is their second choice.
9% who say they are actively considering him.

Johnson is viewed favorably by 18% of likely caucusgoers and unfavorably by 22%.

Very favorable: 6%
Mostly favorable: 12%
Mostly unfavorable: 15%
Very unfavorable: 7%
Not sure: 61%

Ryan Binkley

One person polled said Texas businessman and pastor Ryan Binkley is their first choice for president.

Binkley’s total Iowa footprint adds up to 7% of likely Republican caucusgoers. That includes:

0% who say he is their first choice.
0% who say he is their second choice.
6% who say they are actively considering him.

Binkley is viewed favorably by 12% of likely caucusgoers and unfavorably by 21%.

Very favorable: 2%
Mostly favorable: 10%
Mostly unfavorable: 12%
Very unfavorable: 8%
Not sure: 68%

Francis Suarez

One person polled said Miami Mayor Francis Suarez is their first choice for president.

Suarez’s total Iowa footprint adds up to 5% of likely Republican caucusgoers. That includes:

0% who say he is their first choice.
0% who say he is their second choice.
4% who say they are actively considering him.

Suarez is viewed favorably by 12% of likely caucusgoers and unfavorably by 23%.

Very favorable: 2%
Mostly favorable: 10%
Mostly unfavorable: 15%
Very unfavorable: 9%
Not sure: 65%

Stephen Gruber-Miller covers the Iowa Statehouse and politics for the Register. He can be reached by email at sgrubermil@registermedia.com or by phone at 515-284-8169. Follow him on Twitter at @sgrubermiller.

About the Iowa Poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted Aug. 13-17, 2023, for The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 406 registered voters in Iowa who say they will definitely or probably attend the 2024 Republican caucuses.

Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 2,953 randomly selected voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by telephone. The sample was supplemented with additional phone number lookups. Interviews were administered in English. Responses for all contacts were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect their proportions among voters in the list.

Questions based on the sample of 406 voters likely to attend the 2024 Iowa Republican caucuses have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom is prohibited.

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