Donald Trump can't declare victory yet: 3 obstacles he faces in 2024
WASHINGTON — Former President Donald Trump is not a lock for the Republican presidential nomination. Heading into 2024, he still has work to do.
Though Trump has long been the Republican frontrunner in the crowded GOP field, he still faces a bevy of challengers looking to make inroads with conservative voters. One of his Republican rivals, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, has seen momentum in New Hampshire, a critical early voting state.
Trump also faces four sets of criminal charges and mounting concerns about authoritarianism and threats to democracy.
Here's a look at three things Trump needs to do as Republican voters across the country choose their 2024 nominee.
Turn out his voters, especially in Iowa
Job number one: Get out the vote.
If Trump can expand his reach among Republican voters, it'll help him deal with other challenges and knock out his campaign rivals one-by-one.
"They say we're going to win by a lot – don't count on it," Trump told supporters at a rally this month in Reno, Nevada, discounting polls that show him in a commanding position. "Just get out and vote; otherwise, bad things happen."
The Trump campaign has spent months developing voter turnout machines in key states. Those operations will soon be tested, starting with the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 15 and the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 23.
Getting out the vote is particularly important in Iowa, which still uses the caucus system that requires people to show up at a specific time on a specific night.
That's why Trump has branded his Iowa rallies as "Commit to Caucus" events, with first-timer caucusgoers as special targets.
During a recent rally in Coralville, Iowa, Trump asked the crowd to "pretend we're one point behind instead of 35 points up. The more we win by, the more we have a voice. Who knows? You know, sometimes polls are wrong."
Sideline Nikki Haley, Chris Christie and Ron DeSantis
Potential Trump victories in Iowa and New Hampshire could just about end the 2024 Republican primary, isolating opponents like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Haley, and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.
A Trump loss in either state would transform the race, vaulting someone into the role of top alternative and giving them a chance to consolidate the anti-Trump vote.
Haley is seen as a possible threat in New Hampshire, having moved up in polls thanks to well-received debate performances and an endorsement from Gov. Chris Sununu.
Christie is basing his entire campaign on New Hampshire, using appearances to bash Trump over his indictments and pending criminal trials. The Granite State primary will give voters an opportunity to send a clear message whether Christie's efforts have made a dent in Trump's popularity.
In Iowa, DeSantis says he has voter turnout operations across the state and that his ground game will lead to victory. But if Trump wins the Iowa caucus, it could deflate DeSantis' argument.
Manage inevitable trouble
The political maxim is usually "stay out of trouble," but Trump is well past that warning.
The former president faces as many as four criminal trials and at least two civil trials in 2024. He will have to be in the courtroom for the criminal cases, putting quite a roadblock in his campaign schedule.
That's why, from the Trump campaign's perspective, it's important that he quickly wrap up the nomination. However, a former president seeking reelection while facing dozens of felony charges is unprecedented in American politics, even if Trump notches early victories.
His first two trials could come as early as March, though Trump and his attorneys are seeking to delay all of the dates until after Election Day on Nov. 5.
But Trump's rhetoric also lands him in trouble on the campaign trail.
In recent weeks, Trump has described opponents as "vermin," attacked immigrants as poisonous and praised Russian President Vladimir Putin for his criticism of his indictments. The former president has said he wants to be a "dictator" for one day, though only in terms of border security and energy production.
There is no polling evidence – yet – that any of this has hurt him, at least among Republican voters. Rivals such as Haley are urging his supporters to move beyond the "chaos" generated by the former president.
In an interview on ABC News' "This Week," Haley said: "People don't want to hear about every word a person says or every tweet."